Seasonality can completely change the picture too a keyword may look weak on paper simply because its demand hasn’t peaked yet
 
Traditional keyword research still works but it should not be the whole process search trends and GSC can show where demand is actually moving, using all three data sources can help find topics before they become competitive.
 
you're not overthinking it. i’d use trends and current serp intent to spot direction first, then ahrefs/semrush for volume, difficulty and competitors; the volume number alone is only a snapshot.
 
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