Are we in another Bitcoin bubble? [my thoughts]

davids355

davids355

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With everything going on in the crypto world at the moment, especially with regard to Bitcoin, I can't help having a little Deja Vu to the last time we had big movement and lots of attention.

I think this was probably back in late 2017 early 2018 when the price of Bitcoin was surging upwards before crashing out.

psVcdK2

Image source - https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/^BTCUSD/interactive-chart

Back then I was exactly the same - there was so much about Bitcoin being featured in the news, the price was going up, as a result, everyone was talking about it here on blackhat world and I was investing in it on the back of all the hype, like lots of other people.

Then 2018 came and it crashed out. Looking back on the charts it went from a peak of $18k+ to a low point of $7k in a very short space of time, continuing to fall throughout that year ending around the $3500 mark.

I chickened out just like I am sure others did, gradually selling or spending all of the BTC that I had, losing money all the way along - so obviously take any advice I give with a pinch of salt.

Deja Vu is coming on

Anyway, the point is that I am feeling the same vibe now with everything being similar to that previous period - lots of media hype, lots of investors and lots of noobies dipping their toes into the crypto market. I am feeling this buzz as well, and I am super-hyped up about it but the cautious me is saying -

wait, look at the similarities, is the same thing going to happen again where the price either drops dramatically, or everything simply goes dead, or both?
Click to expand...

Things are a little different this time

The more I think about it though, I believe things are different this time and although history does have a habit of repeating itself, that isn't necessarily the case and we shouldn't always be drawing that conclusion, nor should we always be looking at a chart and thinking we can predict what happens next.

In this case, I feel like we could well be at a tipping point.

First of all, let's think about the negative side of crypto - the things that have prevented it from really breaking free thus far -

  • Lots of criminal activity associated with Bitcoin - example - https://www.theguardian.com/technol...hackers-withdraw-108000-pounds-bitcoin-ransom
  • The very bad image of Bitcoin and crypto in general, due to examples like the above
  • Institutional investors won't go near Bitcoin because it is unregulated, unstable and too hard to purchase through legitimate channels
  • Retail investors won't go near Bitcoin because of its bad press and the fact they simply don't have access to it
  • Nobody understands Bitcoin and nobody can really comprehend its advantages, whether it has a valid use or is a viable replacement for traditional currency
  • The price is extremely unstable and fluctuates wildly making it hard to use as a payment platform (A sentiment still shared by some at present, ref - https://decrypt.co/59697/ceo-of-etsy-bitcoin-not-ready-to-become-means-of-payment )
  • Anyone that uses it, does so more in the form of a payment processor, exchanging into FIAT money immediate afterwards, to avoid losing out to price drop
However, if you look at what is starting to happen now, you can see a shift in these views and momentum starting to gather -


My opinion only, and yes it's a little driven by the hype but I believe Bitcoin is coming to the finance industry just as the white walkers came to Westeros - the army has been building slowly and quietly and its nearly time for things to go mental.

3L9jwXU


Some closing thoughts

Edit: Forgot to add my closing thoughts, some things to think about when it comes to Bitcoin and other altcoins (All of which I personally think are tagging along with BTC) -

  • What happens if Coinbase becomes listed on Nasdaq (You think institutions will still be ignoring or badmouthing crypto then?) I think only the Blackberrys of the world will be ( :p )
  • What happens if big retailers (Like Etsy for example who clearly have it in mind for the near future) start accepting BTC?
  • What happens if more companies follow suit like Microstrategy and Tesla have done and start to replace their longterm cash holdings with BTC?
  • What happens if and when there is a shift from people converting to, using and then converting away from BTC, to simply holding a BTC balance like you would a PayPal balance (Think stability)?
  • What happens when we pass a tipping point - just like we did in the UK with electric cars when it SUDDENLY goes from "It's good but it will take years to replace petrol and diesel" to "BOOM, all of a sudden you can't visit a petrol garage without seeing an electric charging point and everyone and their dog suddenly has an electric or at least a hybrid car and oh shit, Petrol and Diesel cars won't even exist in 10 years.
 
Last edited:
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Perfect timing: Already had one Bitcoin price alert in my inbox early this morning ($50k) and now I just got another one --->

qCVP6gS
 
davids355 said:
With everything going on in the crypto world at the moment, especially with regard to Bitcoin, I can't help having a little Deja Vu to the last time we had big movement and lots of attention.

I think this was probably back in late 2017 early 2018 when the price of Bitcoin was surging upwards before crashing out.

psVcdK2

Image source - https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/^BTCUSD/interactive-chart

Back then I was exactly the same - there was so much about Bitcoin being featured in the news, the price was going up, as a result, everyone was talking about it here on blackhat world and I was investing in it on the back of all the hype, like lots of other people.

Then 2018 came and it crashed out. Looking back on the charts it went from a peak of $18k+ to a low point of $7k in a very short space of time, continuing to fall throughout that year ending around the $3500 mark.

I chickened out just like I am sure others did, gradually selling or spending all of the BTC that I had, losing money all the way along - so obviously take any advice I give with a pinch of salt.

Deja Vu is coming on

Anyway, the point is that I am feeling the same vibe now with everything being similar to that previous period - lots of media hype, lots of investors and lots of noobies dipping their toes into the crypto market. I am feeling this buzz as well, and I am super-hyped up about it but the cautious me is saying -



Things are a little different this time

The more I think about it though, I believe things are different this time and although history does have a habit of repeating itself, that isn't necessarily the case and we shouldn't always be drawing that conclusion, nor should we always be looking at a chart and thinking we can predict what happens next.

In this case, I feel like we could well be at a tipping point.

First of all, let's think about the negative side of crypto - the things that have prevented it from really breaking free thus far -

  • Lots of criminal activity associated with Bitcoin - example - https://www.theguardian.com/technol...hackers-withdraw-108000-pounds-bitcoin-ransom
  • The very bad image of Bitcoin and crypto in general, due to examples like the above
  • Institutional investors won't go near Bitcoin because it is unregulated, unstable and too hard to purchase through legitimate channels
  • Retail investors won't go near Bitcoin because of its bad press and the fact they simply don't have access to it
  • Nobody understands Bitcoin and nobody can really comprehend its advantages, whether it has a valid use or is a viable replacement for traditional currency
  • The price is extremely unstable and fluctuates wildly making it hard to use as a payment platform (A sentiment still shared by some at present, ref - https://decrypt.co/59697/ceo-of-etsy-bitcoin-not-ready-to-become-means-of-payment )
  • Anyone that uses it, does so more in the form of a payment processor, exchanging into FIAT money immediate afterwards, to avoid losing out to price drop
However, if you look at what is starting to happen now, you can see a shift in these views and momentum starting to gather -


My opinion only, and yes it's a little driven by the hype but I believe Bitcoin is coming to the finance industry just as the white walkers came to Westeros - the army has been building slowly and quietly and its nearly time for things to go mental.

3L9jwXU
Click to expand...
That thumbs up was for the GoT analogue.
 
The volatility is the issue, I am pretty sure though whenever there is a dip people would be buying Bitcoin so it’s not easy to price drops, the issue is as soon as Bitcoin hits high, many people would also come selling... what are your thoughts on altcoins?
 
VSYNC said:
That thumbs up was for the GoT analogue.
Click to expand...

Yes mate that is a fantastic series right?

Baropi said:
The volatility is the issue, I am pretty sure though whenever there is a dip people would be buying Bitcoin so it’s not easy to price drops, the issue is as soon as Bitcoin hits high, many people would also come selling... what are your thoughts on altcoins?
Click to expand...

Yes, volatility is the big issue thats what turns most people away. However, the volatility will fade as more people start using it and accepting it. Yes, thats slow because its like a chicken and egg situation - you need more people to lower volatility and you won't lower volatility until you have more people. Thats why I beleive its taken so long for it to take hold - but take hold it has. I was having these conversations 10 years ago and although on first impression it feels like we are still in the same place 10 years later, if you look back and see how far we have come, you will realise its been slow building and its going to hit a tipping point (IMHO).

Think of it a little bit like electric cars - same principle there; that was looking like a fantastic technology 10 years ago, but it just felt like there was so much friction for buyers and so much obstruction from within the industry that it would never happen. It also felt like you needed so much infrastructure in place to make it work, that it would take years and years and years to take hold, if it ever would.

And thats what happens with digital transformation; the industry always obstructs it as much as possible, nobody understands it so it takes ages to transform each industry - being seen at first as futuristic stuff that is great on paper but just not practical. Then you have the tipping point where you feel like its hardly moved, but all of a sudden there is enough weight on one side of the scales that the whole thing tips.
 
davids355 said:
Yes mate that is a fantastic series right?



Yes, volatility is the big issue thats what turns most people away. However, the volatility will fade as more people start using it and accepting it. Yes, thats slow because its like a chicken and egg situation - you need more people to lower volatility and you won't lower volatility until you have more people. Thats why I beleive its taken so long for it to take hold - but take hold it has. I was having these conversations 10 years ago and although on first impression it feels like we are still in the same place 10 years later, if you look back and see how far we have come, you will realise its been slow building and its going to hit a tipping point (IMHO).

Think of it a little bit like electric cars - same principle there; that was looking like a fantastic technology 10 years ago, but it just felt like there was so much friction for buyers and so much obstruction from within the industry that it would never happen. It also felt like you needed so much infrastructure in place to make it work, that it would take years and years and years to take hold, if it ever would.

And thats what happens with digital transformation; the industry always obstructs it as much as possible, nobody understands it so it takes ages to transform each industry - being seen at first as futuristic stuff that is great on paper but just not practical. Then you have the tipping point where you feel like its hardly moved, but all of a sudden there is enough weight on one side of the scales that the whole thing tips.
Click to expand...
The directors of GoT should be hunted down and shot for what they did to the last season, but everything before that was unparalleled.
 
VSYNC said:
The directors of GoT should be hunted down and shot for what they did to the last season, but everything before that was unparalleled.
Click to expand...

Agree. I think they were under too much pressure and rushed it (And even at that, it still took forever).

VSYNC said:
The directors of GoT should be hunted down and shot for what they did to the last season, but everything before that was unparalleled.
Click to expand...

Oh, and PS - get out of my thread with your GOT. This is about Bitcoin :p
 
Just curious, at what price will you sell (if you sell)
 
"However, if you look at what is starting to happen now, you can see a shift in these views and momentum starting to gather - "

You forgot BHW accepting BTC as a payment besides PayPal and other popular legit payment ways. :D
 
This topic has already been discussed on the forum millions of times
and everyone has come to the conclusion that it is beneficial to several
groups and companies.

Video card companies make hundreds of millions of dollars from bitcoin.
Also, companies that supply electricity make money on such a business.
Plus, if some well-known person who was the co-founder of the online payment system
(I think you know who I'm talking about) rushes onto the stage and starts praising Bitcoin,
then its price will immediately rise. Then this person will sell Bitcoin
at its peak and get rich again.

I will not hide the fact that you can earn on the bitcoin rate, but small money
(billionaires would say that it is a penny)
 
xStewie said:
Just curious, at what price will you sell (if you sell)
Click to expand...

I'm not sure that I will sell.

thetrustedzone said:
"However, if you look at what is starting to happen now, you can see a shift in these views and momentum starting to gather - "

You forgot BHW accepting BTC as a payment besides PayPal and other popular legit payment ways. :D
Click to expand...

True. Good point.

BlackStar81 said:
This topic has already been discussed on the forum millions of times
and everyone has come to the conclusion that it is beneficial to several
groups and companies.

Video card companies make hundreds of millions of dollars from bitcoin.
Also, companies that supply electricity make money on such a business.
Plus, if some well-known person who was the co-founder of the online payment system
(I think you know who I'm talking about) rushes onto the stage and starts praising Bitcoin,
then its price will immediately rise. Then this person will sell Bitcoin
at its peak and get rich again.

I will not hide the fact that you can earn on the bitcoin rate, but small money
(billionaires would say that it is a penny)
Click to expand...

Very reasonable assessment.
 
BTC is here to stay.
Ever major investor has admitted it t this point or came off their decision that 'its going to fail" to a neutrality standpoint, to save face

It's over.

These coins will pass $100k
 
I just hope they will upgrade BTC consensuses into using PoS instead of PoW.
Like how ETH 2.0 gonna be, from PoW to PoS.

Because BTC mining is getting ridiculous.
It consume so much energy.
With PoW, I doubt it gonna survive in the next 10-15 years.
Even China gov is getting pissed with BTC mining.

That's the problem with BTC developer.
Every time they upgrade/fork into something better, they marked it as another version of bitcoin, instead of just marked it as old btc or 'classic'.

 
Surely cryptocurrency is here to stay, especially when we are witnessing a lot of use cases in various situations.

Nothing is only good, everything is two faced as they say in Batman :p

So BTC, while a volatile currency, which we are not used to, is both good and bad. All depends on how one uses it.
 
I think mark cuban said bitcoin now is like the internet in the 80s... i believe in the tech but all the coins and shit... who knows whats gonna happen maybe govts will ban them all and create their own cryptos instead of using btc? Nobody knows for sure whats going to happen
Enjoyed reading the post though.. very well written op
 
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