Bitcoin to reach $25m by 2050 - agree?

[growyourbrand]

Let's do some math..

Official inflation figures are not actually reliable. $100 today was $186 25 years ago according to official figures, but COME ON. Really? haha.

In 2006 when I was working a regular job making £1200/mo after tax in the UK I was well off.

I had my own 1 bedroom apartment in a nice area, my own car, I ate out regularly and I shopped without looking at prices.

Today, £1200/mo in the UK, in any area is poverty.

I pay my parents gas/electricity bill, and it's £400/mo for a 2 bedroom semi-detached house.

£1200/mo and you need to share, shop cheap, would struggle to run a car unless you have a good old banger and a cheap mechanic, and wouldn't be able to eat out except for mcdonalds and other cheap places.

To live like I used to on £1200, you'd need about £3500/mo after tax. Housing is 4x MINIMUM more expensive. 5-6x in some areas. Food is 4x more expensive than 25 years. I don't even know what it was in 1998, but in 2006 I was paying £400/mo for a 1 bedroom apartment in a good area. You could get 1 bedroom apartments easily for £270-£350 in rougher areas. And that was 2006.. so my guess is 1998 you would easily be able to get a 1 bedroom apartment for £320/mo in a nice area. £180-£220 in a rough area.

Let me check the old street I was paying £400/mo for a 1 bed apartment. (Or at least near it)

We have a room for £750/mo. lol. A room..

1 bed flat for £1150/mo

2 bed flat for £1650. LOL.

Minimum wage today: £11.44.

Minimum wage in 2006: £5.35.

So 3x more expensive flats, only 2x more minimum wage, and that was the MINIMUM wage. I was making £1200/mo after tax. Similar job today is only 50% more. About £1800-£2000/mo after tax.

So realistically, overall we could safely say that the $(pound, euro or dollar, doesn't matter. They're all equally as bad), is worth about 4-5x less.

Call it 4x. $100 today was $400 in 1998.

So bitcoin is about $70k at 1.3 trillion market cap.

Multiply that by 15 and we get 19.5 trillion and a $1.05 million bitcoin.

20 trillion isn't unreasonable given where it's going. It's becoming a reserve currency.

Now multiply that by 4 and we get $4.2 million.

so a $4 to $5 million bitcoin at a 20 trillion market cap if inflation were the same in the next 25 years as in the past.

It's not, and things are WAY worse now. The value of the dollar has easily halved just from 2018 to today.

It's more likely that in 25 years the value of the dollar will be 10x weaker on the conservative side.

That would be $10.5 million per bitcoin in 25 years.

To hit $25 million it would need a market cap then of about $50 trillion, or for inflation to be significantly worse.

Very possible with or without extreme inflation.


I think it's far more likely people will be sitting in 2050 saying "Oh if only I knew about bitcoin back in 2024 I would be so rich now.. Oh well."

I Agree

I thought you only pro in SEO

 

[Deleted member 250950]

Bitcoin cant survice longer in future and cant go over $2-400K

Completely disagree to this price ever cause we never know when this crypto era will end but for sure it will one day and that day is not too far just from now couple of years only moreover this bitcoin bubble will trap tons of peoples. This is all planned by US and soon or after US take this down when they feel this is taking over the world

I donno how Many you’ll agree to this but this will most likely to happen soon

 

[davids355]

Bitcoin cant survice longer in future and cant go over $2-400K

Completely disagree to this price ever cause we never know when this crypto era will end but for sure it will one day and that day is not too far just from now couple of years only moreover this bitcoin bubble will trap tons of peoples. This is all planned by US and soon or after US take this down when they feel this is taking over the world

I donno how Many you’ll agree to this but this will most likely to happen soon

Up until Bitcoin was invented, the best medium we had for storing value was Gold and we've been using that for 2500 years. Bitcoin is but a wee nipper at this point.

 

[Deleted member 250950]

Up until Bitcoin was invented, the best medium we had for storing value was Gold and we've been using that for 2500 years. Bitcoin is but a wee nipper at this point.

That's true,

But gold has been always used as a store of value for a long time plus gold is a secure investment and Bitcoin has a relatively short history and is super risky, manipulating, and of course decentralized

However, we cant ignore the fact that crypto opens up new possibilities along with technological advancements.

Many people are experiencing changes in the financial system through cypto especially Bitcoin, so I think that considerable that as well. However no one knows what will happen to Bitcoin in the future, but it is clear that it is highly volatile and has so many risk factors."I donno what others think but that's my personal observation based on the my knowledge and the factors

 

[splishsplash]

Bitcoin cant survice longer in future and cant go over $2-400K

Completely disagree to this price ever cause we never know when this crypto era will end but for sure it will one day and that day is not too far just from now couple of years only moreover this bitcoin bubble will trap tons of peoples. This is all planned by US and soon or after US take this down when they feel this is taking over the world

I donno how Many you’ll agree to this but this will most likely to happen soon

That's true,

But gold has been always used as a store of value for a long time plus gold is a secure investment and Bitcoin has a relatively short history and is super risky, manipulating, and of course decentralized

However, we cant ignore the fact that crypto opens up new possibilities along with technological advancements.

Many people are experiencing changes in the financial system through cypto especially Bitcoin, so I think that considerable that as well. However no one knows what will happen to Bitcoin in the future, but it is clear that it is highly volatile and has so many risk factors."I donno what others think but that's my personal observation based on the my knowledge and the factors

That's a very definitive statement to say it cannot go over $200k to $400k.

Crypto will never end.

You're essentially saying that the world is going to move away from digital and go back to physical assets. That just won't happen.. The chances of that happening are so infinitesimally small. It will only happen if there's some sort of anti-technology global revolution and the world decides to go back to an era before technology.

Gold is a secure investment, because you "think" it's a secure investment.

There's nothing special about gold.

I've said this before, but the only reason it's used as a store of value is because ;-

1) It's scarce.

2) People like shiny things.

3) It's the agreed upon medium.

If people didn't value shiny things anymore, gold would have no value.

It has no more value than tin or brass. No more intrinsic value that is.

If an alien race that values books and knowledge came to earth, they wouldn't value gold.

It is shiny. That is IT.

Humans are vain creatures. We like objects with brilliance.

We like diamonds because.. They are sparkly..

People pay a fortune for designer crap because it's got a label. There's no difference between a ralph lauren polo shirt at 130 euros and a polo shirt from primark for 10 euros other than the little polo player on the horse.

The conspiracy theory about it all being planned by the US is nonsensical.

It's not even a good strategy.. It makes NO sense.

The fed controls the dollar. They can print as much of it as they like.

They want inflation. It widens the gap between the rich and the poor.

Their goal is to own more assets and almost all of the property/land in the world. Farms.. Control the food. Why do you think Bill Gates owns so much farmland in the US?

Going to all this effort to get the world to buy bitcoin, then "taking it down" would achieve nothing.

Then there's the little issue of how do you take down a decentralized crypto?

Do you know how bitcoin works?

No country on earth has the power to "take it down".

And why would BlackRock want that? They look to control assets. That's what they do. They did it with gold and they do it with companies/properties.

They want to own as much bitcoin as possible because they know it's going to be the primary global reserve asset.

Moving away from the conspiracy ideas..

Look at the age we live in.

Everyone has their head stuck in a phone. People are already part digital.

We are entering the AI age.

Do you realize what's coming?

In 20 years there's going to be more humanoid robots in the world than humans.

And you think crypto is a fad that's going to die out?

This is akin to the 90's where people laughed at the Internet and said it was a fad.

What you're seeing is a crypto bubble, like the dotcom bubble. It's what happens when there's over-excitement in a market about a new world changing technology, and the market reacts too quickly/aggressively to it. If it wasn't for the 2008 recession, the digital era would have advanced even faster.

The s&p 500 peaked at 1500 during the dotcom bubble. It reached that again in 2008, but the recession halted it. By 2013 it was 1500 again. Now it's 5950.

Bitcoin also isn't that unstable. It's pretty damn stable. It's gone up about 30% year on year.

If you exclude the short peaks during periods of over-excitement, then it's steady.





Sure it's "unstable" if you want to save some money and spend it 3 months later, but if you want to store value and use it 2-3 years later, as long as you've not bought at the absolute peak of the FOMO hype then you're going to have more than you started with.

It will also get more stable over time. It already is.

Bull 2013: Peak $1238, low $67 18.5 ratio
Bull 2017: Peak $20k, low $3500 5.7 ratio
bull 2021: peak $69k, low - $16k 4.3 ratio

You see? If you graph those ratios you'll get a logarithmic curve.

That math tells you there's fundamentals changing in the market with each bull run.

The 2024 bull ratio will probably be 2.2 to 3.5


It will probably hit about $250k this bull run.

With a 3.5 ratio that's a bottom of $71k

With a 2.2 that's a bottom of $113k

I'm personally going to start re-buying bitcoin at $90k with my stable coin bull profits.

That ratio is moving towards 1.

Once all the bitcoin is mined it will be 1, and there will be no more bull runs.

Until then, their intensity will decrease logarithmically.

There's also the ratio between peaks.

16x, then 3.45.

This one isn't as likely to be functional curve, ie if it hits $250k then that'd be a 3.62 ratio, higher than the last.

But the ratio of the peaks to the troughs can definitely be described with a logarithmic function.

Remember, the world is changing rapidly. It has never gone backwards.

We had the agricultural age. The world never went back to hunting after this.

Then we had the scientific age, which lead to the industrial age. The world has never been the same as before. We don't send messengers out by horse anymore. We don't send telegrams. We rarely make phone calls now.

Then came the information age.

The differences here between the ages and the bulls is, it's an exponential curve than logarithmic.

The agricultural age started in around 9000BC.

The scientific was the 16th and 17th century. The industrial age was 1760 to 1840.

The information age was even shorter. The 1970's to around 2020.

The age of intelligence began in 2020-2022 depending on how you want to define it.

When has humanity ever gone back?

Why would we go back to gold from bitcoin? Gold is a relic of the agricultural age.

Not directly related to agriculture, but agriculture is the very thing that allowed humans to grow. Without it, we would still be spending half our day hunting and have no energy/time left to grow as a society. Agriculture gave us a net positive. Ie, we could spend 1 unit of energy to make 100 units of energy. Hunting was more like spend 1 unit of energy to make 2 or 3.

When society expanded, gold was needed for trading.

We are in the intelligence age. A world where there will be 10's of billions of humanoid robots. Trillions of digital AI's. Virtual worlds. Brain implants to augment physical reality or connect you directly to virtual worlds.

Do you doubt this is happening?

If not, then how in that world will gold be useful?

Bitcoin is digital energy. Instantly transportable in a digital world. Intrinsicly useful because of the technology.


In this world, it is gold that is incredibly risky, not bitcoin.


I personally put 100% of my wealth in bitcoin.

 

[Deleted member 250950]

@splishsplash

I completely agree that digital assets like Bitcoin and other cryptos will play an important role in the future.

We live in an era where technology is rapidly developing and people's lifestyles are increasingly changing to digital.

There are several reasons why Bitcoin's value can continue to be maintained !!!!

First, >scarcity< Bitcoin is limited to a total of 21 million, so the more people find it, the more its value is likely to increase. & of course This is similar to gold, which is also considered valuable because it is a limited resource. However, unlike gold, Bitcoin has the advantage of being able to trade faster and more safely due to its technological characteristics.

Second, Bitcoin is a >decentralized< system, not controlled by any one organization or government. This prevents people from being affected by economic instability or monetary policy. Especially in times like these when inflation is a concern, Bitcoin is recognized as an alternative. The reason gold was considered a store of value for a long time was because people trusted it,

& Bitcoin is also likely to increase in value as more and more people trust it. (But this will not last longer)

Third, technological advancement. We are living in a digital world now, and innovative technologies such as AI are emerging. It is expected that in 20 years, more robots and AI will enter our daily lives than now.

I think that Bitcoin will further highlight its advantages as a digital asset amidst these changes.

Nevertheless, I understand the skeptical view of Bitcoin. The market is clearly volatile, and Bitcoin can experience large price fluctuations. However, historically, it is important to note that Bitcoin has increased in value in the long term.

For example, as you mentioned it reached a high of $1,238 in 2013, but it has continued to rise since then. And if we look at the upward trend so far, it is quite possible that this trend will continue in the future and there isnot any guaranteed.
Also, the reason why people believe in Bitcoin as a store of value is not simply because of its price.

Bitcoin is an asset that presents a new economic model through technological innovation and gives people more choices. This change is not just about Bitcoin, but will likely play an important role in the entire economic system. & ultimately, the era we live in is constantly changing, and we will not go back to the past.


We can say humans have always found better ways and developed. Digital assets like Bitcoin could be seen as part of that change. So I think gold could be seen as a relic of the past.

Rest the time will tell everything you & I here on BHW only & we’ll until the BHW or we Exist

We'll have to wait and see what direction this “crypto bubble take”we go in, but I'm sure Bitcoin will play a significant role in that process

 

[moonshine7000]

I personally put 100% of my wealth in bitcoin.

If bitcoin goes to $0 your wealth goes to $0

 

[Ad Rent Lab]

The market is very bullish now. I think $1 million is very possible in a short time.

 

[MR.Spuf]

Interesting article from VanEck about Bitcoin becoming a globally recognised store of value and medium of exchange for international transfers. They have predicted a conservative price of $25m by 2050.

In addition the article is very interesting as it outlines the fundimentals of the current monetary system, what factors dictate our perception of value when it comes to existing FIAT currencies and how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are likely to over-take FIAT as a store of value and a medium of exchange (Things we are all well aware of on this forum but its still interesting to see the same thing put into a well-researched article and by a mainstream financial company).

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/...-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/

$1mil for sure, and I do believe will be sold at auctions at one point.

 

[splishsplash]

If bitcoin goes to $0 your wealth goes to $0

Thanks, I hadn't thought of that.

It is pretty risky to hold a $2 trillion market cap asset where the biggest asset manager on the planet holds $45 billion worth.

I will reconsider and look at putting my money in the bank instead. Much safer to have cash in a good old bank that I don't control when the bank doesn't even back my money 1:1