Interesting article from VanEck about Bitcoin becoming a globally recognised store of value and medium of exchange for international transfers. They have predicted a conservative price of $25m by 2050.
In addition the article is very interesting as it outlines the fundimentals of the current monetary system, what factors dictate our perception of value when it comes to existing FIAT currencies and how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are likely to over-take FIAT as a store of value and a medium of exchange (Things we are all well aware of on this forum but its still interesting to see the same thing put into a well-researched article and by a mainstream financial company).
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/...-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/
Let's do some math..
Official inflation figures are not actually reliable. $100 today was $186 25 years ago according to official figures, but COME ON. Really? haha.
In 2006 when I was working a regular job making £1200/mo after tax in the UK I was well off.
I had my own 1 bedroom apartment in a nice area, my own car, I ate out regularly and I shopped without looking at prices.
Today, £1200/mo in the UK, in any area is poverty.
I pay my parents gas/electricity bill, and it's £400/mo for a 2 bedroom semi-detached house.
£1200/mo and you need to share, shop cheap, would struggle to run a car unless you have a good old banger and a cheap mechanic, and wouldn't be able to eat out except for mcdonalds and other cheap places.
To live like I used to on £1200, you'd need about £3500/mo after tax. Housing is 4x MINIMUM more expensive. 5-6x in some areas. Food is 4x more expensive than 25 years. I don't even know what it was in 1998, but in 2006 I was paying £400/mo for a 1 bedroom apartment in a good area. You could get 1 bedroom apartments easily for £270-£350 in rougher areas. And that was 2006.. so my guess is 1998 you would easily be able to get a 1 bedroom apartment for £320/mo in a nice area. £180-£220 in a rough area.
Let me check the old street I was paying £400/mo for a 1 bed apartment. (Or at least near it)
We have a room for £750/mo. lol. A room..
1 bed flat for £1150/mo
2 bed flat for £1650. LOL.
Minimum wage today: £11.44.
Minimum wage in 2006: £5.35.
So 3x more expensive flats, only 2x more minimum wage, and that was the MINIMUM wage. I was making £1200/mo after tax. Similar job today is only 50% more. About £1800-£2000/mo after tax.
So realistically, overall we could safely say that the $(pound, euro or dollar, doesn't matter. They're all equally as bad), is worth about 4-5x less.
Call it 4x. $100 today was $400 in 1998.
So bitcoin is about $70k at 1.3 trillion market cap.
Multiply that by 15 and we get 19.5 trillion and a $1.05 million bitcoin.
20 trillion isn't unreasonable given where it's going. It's becoming a reserve currency.
Now multiply that by 4 and we get $4.2 million.
so a $4 to $5 million bitcoin at a 20 trillion market cap if inflation were the same in the next 25 years as in the past.
It's not, and things are WAY worse now. The value of the dollar has easily halved just from 2018 to today.
It's more likely that in 25 years the value of the dollar will be 10x weaker on the conservative side.
That would be $10.5 million per bitcoin in 25 years.
To hit $25 million it would need a market cap then of about $50 trillion, or for inflation to be significantly worse.
Very possible with or without extreme inflation.
I think it's far more likely people will be sitting in 2050 saying "Oh if only I knew about bitcoin back in 2024 I would be so rich now.. Oh well."
