What people don't seem to realize with England in major tournaments is 'a series of unfortunate events' often do occur. England play really well against the good teams and lose because of some hard luck or stupid player mistakes.
examples:
Maradona's cheating handball, Gazza just missing when stretching his leg to score against Germany, David Beckham getting sent off against Argentina, Sol Campbell's disallowed goals against Argentina and Portugal, Rooney sent off because of Ronaldo 'The Winker' and more recently Frank Lampard's miles over the line disallowed goal against Germany.
Roy Hodgson currently seems to have some good luck and England haven't lost under his 4 game leadership. When selecting Andy Carroll and bringing on Theo Walcott against Sweden, these were decisions he made and they paid off brilliantly.
If England are to win this tournament then they must try and avoid the unlucky encounters and hold on to possession for more than one or two passes. They also need to avoid giving away silly free kicks close to their defensive area, and stop dropping deep and defending a 1-0 lead.
The knockout stages are where we really need Roy Hodgson's good luck to play its hand.
Expect yet another 'series of unfortunate events' in the coming games. And expect Wayne Rooney to get a red card for yet another hot headed and stupid dangerous tackle.