It's a classic catch-22, but I think they just serve two completely different purposes.
The thumbnail is essentially your "hook" or your packaging. If it's terrible, nobody is going to click, which means your amazing 10-minute video never even gets a chance. But on the flip side, if you have a highly clickable thumbnail and the actual video content is just fluff without any real value, viewers will bounce in the first 15 seconds. That kills your retention rate, and the algorithm will stop pushing the video anyway.
So the thumbnail gets them through the door (CTR), but the actual helpful value of the content is what makes them stay and subscribe. You really can't survive with just one or the other.