[Journey] Weekly betting predictions

[rxnaldo]

¡Hello bhw!
I recently finished my trip doing matched betting, just withdrew money from all the betting houses but i decided to leave some money there just to bet for fun on the champions league and games that i like to watch.

Lately i have been trying different strategies to bet and have "safe" long-term profits.
But most are useless or give little profit compared to the risk.
Because i think the strategy i am going to try can work quite well and i dont want to get bored easily with it,
im doing this journey where i will count each bet i make and update the results.
That way i force myself to continue with the strategy even if i have a bad streak or get bored.

My strategy for this journey: 0.5+ FHG (Over 0.5 first half goal)
1. I will start the strategy with a bank of $1604, which is what i currently left in the betting houses when withdrawing all the profits from matched betting.
2. I will carry out an investigation of the leagues in which there is usually a high percentage of goals in the first half, to later analyze the matches of each day and see which one would be a good idea to bet on.
3. I will post the bet i am going to join on the same day or a few days before the match.
4. I will update the result of each bet and keep track of the profit/losses.

(IMPORTANT: I will use 1% or 2% of the bank in each bet so the risk is relatively low, if anyone wants to follow a bet they do so at their own risk)

 

[rxnaldo]

I had already made the first 2 before writing the thread, just made them with a really low stake but i think that both can be won.
From the next ones onwards i will do them with a controlled stake, as i already said, most of the time 1% or 2% of the bank,
maybe there may be some day that is greater if i see that the risk is worth it for some very clear bet.

Both games for today 15 of april:

Åsane - Sogndal IL (Norway, 1st division)

Aalesunds FK - Lyn FK (Norway, 1st division)

I bet $6.15 at odds 1.59

Because they had very low odds i decided to combine them.
(I do not recommend it since i prefer to do them separately, but because it is the first i will allow myself the luxury of making a crazy bet lol)

 

[rxnaldo]

Åsane - Sogndal IL (Norway, 1st division)

Aalesunds FK - Lyn FK (Norway, 1st division)

Both bets won First day completed!

The second game was a bit tough but after a red card we got the goal we needed.

From now on i will use normal stakes (1% or 2% bank base) and simple bets.
Tonight i will check the matches for tomorrow and if i see any interesting i will put them here a few hours before it starts.

 

[EmiliaJ]

GL on this,
Are you using any of the AI stats sites? or doing your research manually?

 

[rxnaldo]

GL on this,
Are you using any of the AI stats sites? or doing your research manually?

Thanks!
I do it manually, for the leagues i use TSDL data and from there i look at the statistics of the teams in that leagues and analyze them according to the match using footystats or soccerstats.

 

[GarethClark]

Interesting! Good Wishes For Your Journey Of Weekly Betting Prediction.

 

[rxnaldo]

Interesting! Good Wishes For Your Journey Of Weekly Betting Prediction.

Thanks mate!

 

[EmiliaJ]

Thanks!
I do it manually, for the leagues i use TSDL data and from there i look at the statistics of the teams in that leagues and analyze them according to the match using footystats or soccerstats.

nice, I noticed some AI stats sites for betting but all of them were subscription based and none of them were offering any trial so I was just wondering if you had any info about them.
But your method is old-school football geek style so respect and hope to see your success story soon in here.

 

[GooogleDev]

hey buddy! following journey
seems good!

do you also do poker?

 

[rxnaldo]

nice, I noticed some AI stats sites for betting but all of them were subscription based and none of them were offering any trial so I was just wondering if you had any info about them.
But your method is old-school football geek style so respect and hope to see your success story soon in here.

I've heard about it but i never tried any AI based stats website but maybe with how advanced AIs are there is one that works..
And yeah haha thanks!

hey buddy! following journey
seems good!

do you also do poker?

Really thanks mate!!
no lol i never played poker before but i would like to learn someday tbh

 

[GenesisOne]

My goodness - Norway bets - that seems pretty boring

 

[rxnaldo]

My goodness - Norway bets - that seems pretty boring

Not all the games i will enter will be in norway lol
but most of them tend to be small leagues which is where the most % of goals are scored in the first half haha

 

[rxnaldo]

Bet for today 16 of april:

Notts county FC - Stockport county FC (League two, England)

I bet $21,50 at odds 1.26

Explanation: Notts county has a very good goal percentage in the first half playing at home, and although their rival stockport county as a visitor does not have such a good percentage, they still have a high percentage compared to other teams playing today.
I decided to bet on this match also because of the clear difference in the standings;
Notts is 14th and stockport is first in the table.
Therefore, i think that both teams will come out with a lot of desire to score in the first half.
About the odds being so low, i should try to enter the bet on LIVE around minute 10-20 in case they didnt score before and take advantage of a higher odds of at least 1.40 or 1.50 but i have lot of things to do at game time and i left the bet ready with pre-match odds.

 

[rxnaldo]

Bet for today 16 of april:

Notts county FC - Stockport county FC (League two, England)

I bet $21,50 at odds 1.26

Won

I just looked at the movement of the odds and it reached 1.50 about 5 minutes before the goal...
I think that entering LIVE instead of entering the prematch would be much more profitable, although i run the risk of not being able to enter many matches because there is a high probability that they will score before reaching odds 1,50...

At the moment 3 well read matches...1 combined bet of 2 matches and 1 simple.

i will look at the games for tomorrow and if i see something interesting i will post it!

 

[Hazzard]

Following

 

[rxnaldo]

For todays bet, at the moment i have 2 possible options,
in both matches there is a prediction of at least 2-3 goals so it is very possible that at least 1 will be scored in the first half since they have a high percentage of goals in the first half.

Dundee fc - Rangers (Scottish premiership)

Molde FK - Odd (Eliteserien,Norway)

I think i will bet LIVE on the norwegian match to try to find a good odds since right now it is at 1.22
I would also enter the rangers match but it also has a very low odd (+/- 1.20) and i cannot enter LIVE because i will be watching the champions league

 

[hideath]

[Journey] Losing my money weekly with betting​

 

[Fixgee]

Which site you are using for bets? It is better if you can provide some screenshot of bets and result.

 

[rxnaldo]

Which site you are using for bets? It is better if you can provide some screenshot of bets and result.

Well, i am using many houses, since i previously deposited in many houses when i was doing matched betting and surebets,
and i left some money in all of them to bet for fun and finally i decided to use the money for this thread

I shouldnt show anything since i dont think i have to give explanations to anyone,
but if it serves to show that im really making the bets, here i leave you the 2 bets i`ve made already

 

[rxnaldo]

Good Luck With This Journey Brother, Do You Play Slots Game?

Thanks! Nope, i never played slots and i dont recommend doing so if you ever want to do so...
If you want to bet using statistics, i recommend it if you invest time in reading games and forming a betting strategy,
but slots is unpredictable and i would even say that most of the casinos slots are rigged..