BTC My Technical Analysis

[LuckyGamble]

Update:

BTC has broken 28600 support, so now who bought and HODL since Dec 2020 are now in losses and feeling pain. The selling pressure will increase and its culmination of big Heads and Shoulders Pattern in formation since 2021. So in crypto speak "Big Dump has Come". However, all this happened on weekend so I would wait for monday trading or a pullback to go short.

ETH Etherium is the first mover and Bitcoin followed, I am also attaching ETH chart because it makes a nice perfect heads and shoulders pattern which is now broken.

Ethereum 1 Week

View attachment 214131

BTC - Overall and Zoomed in Chart

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View attachment 214132

Also, as always this analysis is for education and discussion purposes only and not a trading advice.

For TA sceptics, 28600 support was predicted on chart a long time back and look at how many times BTC got support at this level in the zoomed in chart.

What's your TA analysis nowadays at a $25k BTC?

 

[ranga]

What's your TA analysis nowadays at a $25k BTC?

The second down leg has started, next support is at 18,600 - 19,000 range.

My Opinion (Not TA): I think now some bad news like corporate bankruptcies will start to come, those who invested in crypto, which will fuel further down side

As per TA, it will be worthless, but that scenario may not pan out. But its not going to be a fast or V shape recovery, gonna take a long time based correction for people to again trust it for investment.

IMHO, BTC has been ruined by unnecessary speculation and in the process it also lost its main character i.e. to act as a currency alternative.

 

[ranga]

Update:

BTC has broken 20K and is now at a crucial support area of 18-19K. It is crucial because the next support is only at 13K Level. Also its last of Fibonacci Levels of 0.236 and as per Fibo TA, Bitcoin is already in bear territory and if it breaks the 0.236 level it would go back to zero level i.e. around 4K from which it started its upward movement.

 

[FluffyB]

Remember the 100k hype to the moon just 6 months ago? Good times.

 

[ranga]

If BTC Closes decisively below 19K then another drop can start with target around 10-12K and if previous trends are to be considered, these drops start in the weekend.

For Long Term or HODL Investors, consider this. Breaking 19,660 level means that a person who bought BTC at the peak in 2018 and is HODLing, is now in loss.

Short Term Zoomed in Chart



Long Term Weekly Chart with 2018 Peak Showing. Also BTC is not with 200 Week Moving Average for first time.

 

[mrbossy]

More bear blood mate , still no hopes !

 

[ranga]

More bear blood mate , still no hopes !

In my opinion (opinion not Technical Analysis) there is one down leg left which should take Bitcoin to 10-12K range. This is point of minimum risk but burnt traders will not have the risk appetite to enter the market at that point. Also, after the end of this bear run, chances of a long time based correction can start like the one happened from Dec 18 to Mar 20.

 

[laur.laurix]

Your original "technical analysis" aged very well......for other members that read this kind threads, when you see the "lines on a chart guy" do the opposite of what he is saying and in 80% of the cases you will make money.

 

[Joeyhart]

Your original "technical analysis" aged very well......for other members that read this kind threads, when you see the "lines on a chart guy" do the opposite of what he is saying and in 80% of the cases you will make money.

Agree.

 

[LuckyGamble]

In my opinion (opinion not Technical Analysis) there is one down leg left which should take Bitcoin to 10-12K range. This is point of minimum risk but burnt traders will not have the risk appetite to enter the market at that point. Also, after the end of this bear run, chances of a long time based correction can start like the one happened from Dec 18 to Mar 20.

Then that means that once we are in the 10k-12k range, we will have a long time to accumulate + buy the dips that present at these levels.

Nice risk:rewards at those levels

 

[Joeyhart]

Then that means that once we are in the 10k-12k range, we will have a long time to accumulate + buy the dips that present at these levels.

Nice risk:rewards at those levels

I'm afraid there are lower levels to be taken. But... Please accumulate for 2 years.

 

[Prime Services]

I'm afraid there are lower levels to be taken. But... Please accumulate for 2 years.

We might not be here in accumulation zone for 2 years , but pretty sure BTC will stay here for months .

 

[ranga]

BTC has broken 19K with volume, If there is no reversal in today's trading, then next downturn will begin and 19K levels will act as resistance. The next support is at 13200 to 13800 mark.

CloseUP



Zoomed Out

 

[crypto-trader]

Yes, we need a sweet capitulation candle to short the falling knife.

 

[MasterOfMasks]

Yes, we need a sweet capitulation candle to short the falling knife.

yeah we need to keep trying to catch falling knives

 

[hkhkhkhkhk123]

It is so funny seeing people still relying on technical analysis for Bitcoin.

it is indeed funny so i laughed by teeth off.

 

[varules]

Nice information will keep in mind, thanks for sharing.

 

[awesomewebsites]

I never understand these candles and I do not think the bitcoin movement is dependent on this.

 

[ranga]

I never understand these candles and I do not think the bitcoin movement is dependent on this.

candles is just a different way of charting to provide additional information. Movement of any script is just baed on demand and supply, Technical Analysis of study of such movement and market psychology behind it, to give probability of what can happen next.

For e.g. BTC is taking support at the same levels since June, this tells that buying demand is more than selling demand at these levels and there are buyers at these levels. So buying at these levels have low probability of losses and if it breaks these levels, you can reverse and go short because all those buyers who bought at these levels are now in losses and covering up by selling.

 

[ranga]

BTC looks like breaking down 18500 levels decisively. If the situation stays like this by today's end, next downward leg will be confirmed. Next support level is 13700 but considering the size of earlier move it should touch around 10K.