Btcoin halving: will it affect the price or not?

[blue_knight]

What do you believe it will happen with the BTC price around halving? Some people say that it will rise due to the fact that it will be less BTC and the price of each unit will increase, others say it is already taken into consideration at the current rate. I'm curious to hear your honest opinion about this.
You can read a nice article about this here.

 

[yherrliche]

Seeing how mining is barely profitable today, halving the mining reward won't increase demand for bitcoin. So then the price won't increase, since the price is driven by demand (buying more bitcoin).

I'm not an expert, so correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[localmoon]

What do you believe it will happen with the BTC price around halving? Some people say that it will rise due to the fact that it will be less BTC and the price of each unit will increase, others say it is already taken into consideration at the current rate. I'm curious to hear your honest opinion about this.
You can read a nice article about this here.

A good rule of thumb is to assume that every piece of information that is available to anyone is already priced in. Unless something unexpected happens the actual event will be a non event.

 

[blue_knight]

Seeing how mining is barely profitable today, halving the mining reward won't increase demand for bitcoin. So then the price won't increase, since the price is driven by demand (buying more bitcoin).

I'm not an expert, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The demand will be the same but the number of bitcoins generated as rewards will be in half. So, we'll have less bitcoins on the market, theoretically with a better price.
The mining is not profitable for you and me, but if you're Bitmain and you don't pay for the hardware and you have good contracts with Chinese government for cheap (maybe free?) electricity, it is profitable. Not to mention that you'll sell the hardware to top-up the profits.

 

[oscilay]

what makes you think the demand will be the same? Just curious...

 

[blue_knight]

what makes you think the demand will be the same? Just curious...

I'm not sure, I just assume that it will be the same. Do you believe the demand will drop? Can you tell me why?

 

[yherrliche]

good contracts with Chinese government for cheap

That's a good example, but way too specific to be relevant in the big picture. Truth is most people buy bitcoins, and don't mine them. So a lower reward won't change the economic trend.
The main issue we're having with crypto is everyone is waiting to sell in order to make money. And a market which is always looking to sell is a market who is meant to go down. That's why all my crypto investments are shorts, and somehow they are all making money.

I mean that's my opinion, I don't think this halving will make any difference. Unless people think it will, and buy a bunch before the halving. Just everything that is bought needs to be sold to make the profit we're all looking for, so it will go down right after.

 

[Mr.Sinatra]

That's a good example, but way too specific to be relevant in the big picture. Truth is most people buy bitcoins, and don't mine them. So a lower reward won't change the economic trend.
The main issue we're having with crypto is everyone is waiting to sell in order to make money. And a market which is always looking to sell is a market who is meant to go down. That's why all my crypto investments are shorts, and somehow they are all making money.

I mean that's my opinion, I don't think this halving will make any difference. Unless people think it will, and buy a bunch before the halving. Just everything that is bought needs to be sold to make the profit we're all looking for, so it will go down right after.

Every crypto enthousiast should print and hand your answer in their wall.

 

[gorillabob1]

Wouldn't the implied value increase because of the sliced profit incentive to mining it?

 

[Extruser]

Short term price speculation is always difficult.
Not only with crypto assets, but in general. Look at Tesla, Apple etc. ...
Long term, that's another story.
To answer your question, I think there's a big chance that the price will go up.
But expect a drop afterwards, due to profit taking.

 

[hakann]

Halving doesnt only affect miners. Yes their
reward will be cut in half, but it also means
that there will be less "new" coins iin circulation
than there was for past 4 years. And if demand
continue to rise at same rate it will cause the rise
of the BTC price, just like it already happend
before (4 and 8 years ago).

The day of halvening is not that important, could
only have some psychological effect. Time after
that date will bring price rise, and according to
previous experiances and experts the peak will
be 6 months later, and after that correction ofcourse.

Now we have 12.5 BTC "printed" approx. every 10 mins
and after halving it will be half of that, and even if demand
is constant it would cause price rise in following months/years.
(Less coins + same demand = price rise; less coins + increasing
demand = even more price rise + buzz = mega price rise)
But trend is that demand is rising constantly, plus psycho
effect, since everybody will talk about that "big" event
will lead to mega increase in price in aprox. 6-8 months
from now, and correction after that as I already mentioned.

 

[SellingStealth]

people do say that the price of the halving event is already worked into the current price. but I still believe that the halving event will get BTC a lot more hype and media coverage, since the last times it happened the price went way up. Then people will see the small bump up in price around the halving date, which will cause more people to buy some from FOMO. This could then lead to a herd mentality and cause a lot of people to pile on and buy it.

Of course, its just one possible scenario. but one that could happen around the halving date and explain why its not truly priced in now.

 

[blue_knight]

I am thinking of selling my crypto and buy-in later just because I think the price will rise and fall again, to be honest. But it's hard to time this accurately.

 

[TheVigilante]

Seeing how mining is barely profitable today, halving the mining reward won't increase demand for bitcoin. So then the price won't increase, since the price is driven by demand (buying more bitcoin).

I'm not an expert, so correct me if I'm wrong.

Correct!

 

[tb303]

The only thing you can say for certain is that there will be 900 btc less per day to sell.

 

[Salamouna]

It's bitcoin not btcoin

 

[Zerks]

Because the corona virus affects the world economy, the shelter coins will increase and the rest will decrease

 

[PinguSpy]

Just a theory

 

[blue_knight]

It's bitcoin not btcoin

Thanks for the correction, unfortunately I can no longer edit the title, only the tags.

 

[DanteCro]

That's a good example, but way too specific to be relevant in the big picture. Truth is most people buy bitcoins, and don't mine them. So a lower reward won't change the economic trend.
The main issue we're having with crypto is everyone is waiting to sell in order to make money. And a market which is always looking to sell is a market who is meant to go down. That's why all my crypto investments are shorts, and somehow they are all making money.

I mean that's my opinion, I don't think this halving will make any difference. Unless people think it will, and buy a bunch before the halving. Just everything that is bought needs to be sold to make the profit we're all looking for, so it will go down right after.

I like your opinion but my own is slightly different.

I think a halved reward will reduce sell pressure from miners impacting BTC price if demand stays the same. The "people waiting to sell" part is in my opinion not much different from other markets but I agree that its worrying since a lot of early adopters/whales could have low targets. The question is then what those targets could be? I think this depends on market circumstance since most big holders are in very profitable positions so both selling now and waiting is not too risky.
My theory is that most will likely wait to see if demand stays strong long enough allowing for the lower supply impact(halving) to push BTC price in a more bullish trend. This would attract attention from mass media/casuals creating another bubble (look at 2017) thus creating an even better selling option in a short to mid term time-frame. The risk to reward ratio for such a position would justify such trading behavior.

Its easy to tell that peoples interest in BTC is much lower than in the 2017 run (both online and IRL). As long as this does not change we wont see another big bull run. However all this could change, therefore keeping an eye out for key indicators in the market is a must.