What's Your Exit Strategy? (Crypto)

VSYNC said:

Trust in Stock to Flow mate.

https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/
10 - 20% exits per 3 - 7 days at around the right point based on STF, in the last 50% adding shorts as well with progressively higher leverage (1:1 beginning + 0.25X each time).

Hard close of shorts and re-entry at approx. 12 months from peak, prep for next run.

Click to expand...

Could someone explain this with layman's word

Most of my crypto is what I receive as payments, rare occasions I invest myself.
I only pick coins that I FEEL I should HODL long term.
Cashing out is something like whenever the value rises by x times, I withdraw a percentage of it.
It can be summed up like I take out a part of the profit whenever there is profit.

smlover said:

Could someone explain this with layman's word

Click to expand...

Only because the asian girl in your avatar has a cute haircut..

Using the chart I provided a link to, wait until the colour of the dots comes close to matching the colour of the dots in the last two peaks (2013 and 2017 high points - colour is yellow, use photoshop or a color picker extension to get the precise color).

Once I think it is close to the same period of time and using a few other metrics to cross check, I'll start to sell my crypto holdings. Each sale will be for between 10% - 20% of my total holdings (ie. between 5 - 10 individual sales).

The aim of doing this is to attempt to straddle the peak of the bull run, with some sales before it and some sales after it. This ideally optimises the average sale price I get for everything, while protecting me from either selling too soon (and missing a lot of profit) or selling too late (and eating unnecessary loss). Sales will be made between 3 - 7 days apart from each other.

For the second half of selling (ie. after 50% of total holdings is liquidated), will also be creating short positions as well. Shorts are trading positions that pay you profit when the price goes down.

I'll start by creating a 1:1 short, which basically means that the profit you'll generate from a 1% drop would be exactly the same as what you would generate from holding and having the price go up 1%.

For each successive short I'll increase the leverage though at a rate of 0.25X each time. This means the second short will have 1.25X put on it.

What that means is that now for every $1 I would have made from a 1:1 short, I'll now make $1.25. It also means that I'll lose $1.25 for every normal $1 that the price moves against me (upwards).

Because of this, I want to start with small leverage earlier.. this allows me more wiggle room with my first shorts for the price to move against me, but then as time goes on I have more chance of creating shorts that will become profitable within a short period of time (ie. the price is going to drop at some point, every extra 3 days means that we are inevitably moving closer to that).

So the additional leverage being added is used to counteract the higher chance that earlier shorts may be liquidated - because in the parabolic part of a bull run, the price moves so fast and hard that you can easily have shorts liquidated. So even if my earliest short is liquidated, I'll be generating an additional 0.25X from the second one. If that gets liquidated I'll be generating an extra 0.5X on the third one.

An extra 0.5X over the course of a 12 month short with 70 - 90% price collapse is a lot of extra money and will more than cover the loss of the first two shorts.

That's pretty much the whole idea, but it could be done in a more simple way too while still using the same principles.

my strategy is hold until gold

I don't feel to cash out my investment need w since it's not upto a year that I interest to keepy capital/investment

My exit strategy is pretty straightforward. I just update my stoploss triggers each night before I go to bed.
This is not the most efficient strategy out there but its damn simple and easy to do.


For eg:- I bought ETH for 3k i put my stoploss at 2k. Now when the price is 4k I put my stop loss at 3k. when it will reach 5k ill put my stop loss at 3.5k and so on. Where exactly to put stop loss is not defined and it varies every couple of weeks depending on my risk tolerance. but you get the idea.

Bitcoin mania strongly reminds me of a financial pyramid, that as long as the finances of small players are poured into this, then all this will work. At the same time, there should be a lot of small players. In any case, let's see how this paranoia ends. I myself wonder when this will all end.