What's the next bubble?

dgusic

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I was just wondering, what do you think is the next bubble that is worth gambling against?

I think it's the stocks this time. Just take a look at S&P through 25 years you will see there has never been a larger growth. That growth started from the last financial meltdown of 2008.

Actually, it might make some sense.

1. Oil is at all time low prices.
2. Never bigger growth of some of the biggest indexes.
3. China's economy will fuck everything up.

Just take a look at some of these graphs. This one and this one. If you can see the correlation between the sudden drop of oil price and sudden drop of S&P500 index.

It might have already started as we all read the news lately.
 
hahaha glad our country fuck everything up

damn, is China that powerful?

i have no idea even being a Chinese ummmm
 
If Bernie wins the US president election he wants to close the corporate tax benefits. This will force corporations out of US if they are in the digital field. It wont be for any benefit to be located in US anymore for this case. US will be considered inferior for corporate business place and put it in a downright possition. This will affect their economy.

China and Russia is working on a transportational system across europe to cut the costs which in return will decrease the US exports because it will be cheaper for whatever shipping within Asia and Europe than from America.

China is working on a new alternative to SWIFT banking system again to cut out US (for the sole purpose of misuse of power, too much pressure).

The above mentioned will affect the economy substantially.

Oil is at a record low but there is a huge amount of oil unused today so I would wait abit longer because it might decrease further!
 
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According to Forbes OP you are right about S&P.

And I'm no investor. Other than investing in my own business. But thanks to the education I got from "The Big Short" I realized you gotta read 20 hours / day, 7 days a week, basically your entire life just to find bubbles noone else is looking at.

At least, that was the impression I got. I think if everyone can see a bubble, or everyone is pointing at something and saying "that's the next big bubble" chances are there's a bubble somewhere else that noones looking at. IDK.

I really wish I knew more about stocks in general but again, I'd have to invest tons of time reading, researching before I invested 1 red penny in anything. I don't trust investing. I don't trust brokers. I don't trust our government our politicians our money our anything. The only things I trust are the things I own and know.
 
If Bernie wins the US president election he wants to close the corporate tax benefits. This will force corporations out of US if they are in the digital field. It wont be for any benefit to be located in US anymore for this case. US will be considered inferior for corporate business place and put it in a downright possition. This will affect their economy.

China and Russia is working on a transportational system across europe to cut the costs which in return will decrease the US exports because it will be cheaper for whatever shipping within Asia and Europe than from America.

China is working on a new alternative to SWIFT banking system again to cut out US (for the sole purpose of misuse of power, too much pressure).

The above mentioned will affect the economy substantially.

Oil is at a record low but there is a huge amount of oil unused today so I would wait abit longer because it might decrease further!

The President of the USA doesn't set the tax rate its congress which does.
 
The President of the USA doesn't set the tax rate its congress which does.

I can't post URLS so I'll just quote it:

Sanders' "Corporate Tax Dodging Prevention Act"

Senator Bernie Sanders Corporate Tax Dodging Prevention Act is summarized in an April 14 Senate Budget Committee blog post, (Sanders is the ranking member of that committee.)

1) Ending the rule allowing American corporations to defer paying federal income taxes on profits of their offshore subsidiaries.

This would immediately bring in up to $620 billion of federal tax revenue currently owed on "offshore" profits but deferred. (It would also make available in the US more than $2 trillion of corporate profits that have been kept offshore, which could be reinvested or distributed to shareholders.)

Additionally, this would increase federal tax revenue by as much as $90+ billion each year thereafter.

These amounts are based on a report from Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ) and the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, titled "Offshore Shell Games."

A second look at the amounts owed by these companies , detailed in a letter to Congress titled, 24 International Tax Experts Address Current Tax Reform Efforts in Congress sets the amount this would bring in at " about $900 billion over 10 years."

2) Closing loopholes allowing American corporations to artificially inflate or accelerate their foreign tax credits.

A current loophole allows corporations to claim foreign tax credits for taxes paid on foreign income even if that income is not subject to current U.S. tax. This closes that loophole.

3) Preventing American corporations from claiming to be foreign by using a tax-haven post office box as their address.

This would stop American corporations from avoiding U.S. taxes by claiming to be a foreign company because they have a post office box in a tax haven country. Sanders' bill says a corporation could not claim to be from another country if their management and control operations are primarily located in the U.S. (See last month's post, "Pfizer Buying Allergan So It Can Pretend To Be Irish In Tax Scam." The resulting company would still be based in NY/NJ.)

4) Preventing American corporations from avoiding U.S. taxes by "inverting."

In an inversion, an American corporation acquires or merges with a (usually much smaller) foreign company and then claims that the newly merged company is a foreign one for tax purposes — even though the majority of the ownership is unchanged and little or no personnel or operations have actually moved offshore.

Under Sanders' bill the U.S. would continue to tax such a company as an American corporation so long as it is still majority owned by the owners of the American party to the merger or acquisition.

5) Prevent foreign-owned corporations from stripping earnings out of the U.S. by manipulating debt expenses.

This stops multinational corporations from loading up their U.S.-based corporation with debt to companies they own outside of the US as a way to shift profits out of the U.S. company. They make interest payments to the foreign companies, deduct it, and this reduces or wipes out their U.S. income for tax purposes.

6) Preventing large oil companies from disguising royalty payments to foreign governments as foreign taxes.

U.S. oil and gas companies have been disguising royalty payments to foreign governments as foreign taxes in order to claim foreign tax credits. Sanders' bill would stop this.

Does Sanders' Plan Pay For His Infrastructure Proposal?

Sanders has proposed a detailed plan for addressing the country's infrastructure needs, with an investment of $1 trillion. His plan to close several corporate tax loopholes appears to raise the necessary funds to cover this. Ending deferral alone would bring in $620 billion, and another $90+ billion each year following. This would raise the necessary funds.

On top of this the Senate's Joint Committee on Taxation took a look at Sanders' bill and a "partial score" concluded that items 2-6 would bring in an additional $133 billion.

The Washington Post fact checker looked at Sanders' plan to fund infrastructure by closing these corporate tax loopholes and concluded that "What matters most is that Sanders's claim of raising $1 trillion is at least credible — assuming the money is not also earmarked for other spending projects."


 
its obvious - that bubble will be Bitcoin (AGAIN!) hence why im now promoting easy way to get Bitcoins on my blog :)
 
Honestly, the only thing I care about is the next financial meltdown because that is when people start to loose jobs, income level drops, percentage of homeless people incrases.

I don't care about the bubble as (most of us) don't have the necessary income to actually bet against it.

Haha and I have to admit, I started thinking about this when I watched The Big Short.

And most of the times, there are always some patterns that show how will economy behave in fhe future.
 
The below companies are all in the S&P 500, so yeah, there could definitely be a correlation between oil and the stock:

Oil & Gas Drilling

Nabors Industries Ltd.
Noble Corporation
Rowan Cos.
Transocean Inc.

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
BJ Services
Baker Hughes
Halliburton Co.
National Oilwell Varco, Inc.
Schlumberger Ltd.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Anadarko Petroleum
Apache Corp.
Burlington Resources
Devon Energy Corp.
EOG Resources
Kerr-McGee
Unocal Corp.
XTO Energy Inc.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Ashland Inc.
Sunoco, Inc.
Valero Energy

Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
El Paso Corp.
Kinder Morgan
Williams Cos.
 
Remember the housing bubble? It's re-inflating. An interesting graph I found from Google Images to show my point visually:

shilller_nominal-720x544.jpg
 
Remember the housing bubble? It's re-inflating. An interesting graph I found from Google Images to show my point visually:

View attachment 75590

This is one very interesting graph indeed. Although it clearly shows the graph is reinflating, it could also be due to the fact that we live in a mostly virtual world where buying or selling a house is much quicker than what is was ~8 years ago.

Also, banks are a bit more careful when it comes to loans.
 
it could also be due to the fact that we live in a mostly virtual world where buying or selling a house is much quicker than what is was ~8 years ago.

Speed is irrelevant if you don't have the money/credit to transact ;)
 
There's a private equity bubble that's beginning to show signs of bursting and it's fueled by frankly ridiculous valuations and funding thrown at any silicon valley company that says their going to 'make the world a better place by XYZ'. The immediate effects wont be obvious...so some multimillion/billionaires are losing their money, so what? The knock-on effect to the economy though could be significant.

As for betting against it, potentially a struggling tech company is a viable option such as Twitter, which shows an unwillingness to innovate further, craps all over their developers and it'll most likely get hit as collateral when people realise that perhaps some of these tech companies are over valued.
 
Speed is irrelevant if you don't have the money/credit to transact ;)

I'm skeptical that there's a new property bubble though. The last one was of course fueled by credit but it's provision was due to there being incentives to supply credit by the creation of insane bond derivatives, created from said debt, that were as good as printing money on Wall Street. I could be wrong but I see the current trend in home price increases as being part of a 'rich outsiders' problem, with a landlord culture springing up from the willingness of Middle Eastern/Asian buyers to invest in prime real-estate in the US and UK.

I'd be interested to see how this is reflected now that oil millionaires/billionaires are taking a hit and the entire Chinese economy looks like a bubble that's being propped up and inflated by its own government.
 
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