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What's the next bubble?

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by dgusic, Jan 29, 2016.

  1. dgusic

    dgusic Regular Member

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    I was just wondering, what do you think is the next bubble that is worth gambling against?

    I think it's the stocks this time. Just take a look at S&P through 25 years you will see there has never been a larger growth. That growth started from the last financial meltdown of 2008.

    Actually, it might make some sense.

    1. Oil is at all time low prices.
    2. Never bigger growth of some of the biggest indexes.
    3. China's economy will fuck everything up.

    Just take a look at some of these graphs. This one and this one. If you can see the correlation between the sudden drop of oil price and sudden drop of S&P500 index.

    It might have already started as we all read the news lately.
     
  2. terrycody

    terrycody Supreme Member

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    hahaha glad our country fuck everything up

    damn, is China that powerful?

    i have no idea even being a Chinese ummmm
     
  3. dys872

    dys872 Junior Member

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    Curency is the next big bubble
     
  4. EarthIsYours

    EarthIsYours Newbie

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    If Bernie wins the US president election he wants to close the corporate tax benefits. This will force corporations out of US if they are in the digital field. It wont be for any benefit to be located in US anymore for this case. US will be considered inferior for corporate business place and put it in a downright possition. This will affect their economy.

    China and Russia is working on a transportational system across europe to cut the costs which in return will decrease the US exports because it will be cheaper for whatever shipping within Asia and Europe than from America.

    China is working on a new alternative to SWIFT banking system again to cut out US (for the sole purpose of misuse of power, too much pressure).

    The above mentioned will affect the economy substantially.

    Oil is at a record low but there is a huge amount of oil unused today so I would wait abit longer because it might decrease further!
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2016
  5. BreaknBrix

    BreaknBrix Power Member

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    According to Forbes OP you are right about S&P.

    And I'm no investor. Other than investing in my own business. But thanks to the education I got from "The Big Short" I realized you gotta read 20 hours / day, 7 days a week, basically your entire life just to find bubbles noone else is looking at.

    At least, that was the impression I got. I think if everyone can see a bubble, or everyone is pointing at something and saying "that's the next big bubble" chances are there's a bubble somewhere else that noones looking at. IDK.

    I really wish I knew more about stocks in general but again, I'd have to invest tons of time reading, researching before I invested 1 red penny in anything. I don't trust investing. I don't trust brokers. I don't trust our government our politicians our money our anything. The only things I trust are the things I own and know.
     
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  6. Capo Dei Capi

    Capo Dei Capi BANNED BANNED

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    The President of the USA doesn't set the tax rate its congress which does.
     
  7. EarthIsYours

    EarthIsYours Newbie

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    I can't post URLS so I'll just quote it:


     
  8. Capo Dei Capi

    Capo Dei Capi BANNED BANNED

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    It doesn't matter what he wants, if congress doesn't want it, it wont happen.
     
  9. EarthIsYours

    EarthIsYours Newbie

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    I don't live in US myself and have little knowledge about your system. So thank you for your information!
     
  10. KraftyKyle

    KraftyKyle Jr. Executive VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    The Student Loan Bubble.

    [video]https://youtu.be/ohLrNlY_TBk[/video]
     
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  11. iglow

    iglow Elite Member

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    its obvious - that bubble will be Bitcoin (AGAIN!) hence why im now promoting easy way to get Bitcoins on my blog :)
     
  12. Zwielicht

    Zwielicht Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Damn, you beat me to it! :cool:
     
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  13. dgusic

    dgusic Regular Member

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    Honestly, the only thing I care about is the next financial meltdown because that is when people start to loose jobs, income level drops, percentage of homeless people incrases.

    I don't care about the bubble as (most of us) don't have the necessary income to actually bet against it.

    Haha and I have to admit, I started thinking about this when I watched The Big Short.

    And most of the times, there are always some patterns that show how will economy behave in fhe future.
     
  14. Sherbert Hoover

    Sherbert Hoover Jr. Executive VIP Jr. VIP

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    The below companies are all in the S&P 500, so yeah, there could definitely be a correlation between oil and the stock:

    Oil & Gas Drilling

    Nabors Industries Ltd.
    Noble Corporation
    Rowan Cos.
    Transocean Inc.

    Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
    BJ Services
    Baker Hughes
    Halliburton Co.
    National Oilwell Varco, Inc.
    Schlumberger Ltd.

    Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
    Anadarko Petroleum
    Apache Corp.
    Burlington Resources
    Devon Energy Corp.
    EOG Resources
    Kerr-McGee
    Unocal Corp.
    XTO Energy Inc.

    Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
    Ashland Inc.
    Sunoco, Inc.
    Valero Energy

    Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
    El Paso Corp.
    Kinder Morgan
    Williams Cos.
     
  15. CyHead

    CyHead Regular Member

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    In many countries it's real estate.
     
  16. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Remember the housing bubble? It's re-inflating. An interesting graph I found from Google Images to show my point visually:

    shilller_nominal-720x544.jpg
     
  17. dgusic

    dgusic Regular Member

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    This is one very interesting graph indeed. Although it clearly shows the graph is reinflating, it could also be due to the fact that we live in a mostly virtual world where buying or selling a house is much quicker than what is was ~8 years ago.

    Also, banks are a bit more careful when it comes to loans.
     
  18. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Speed is irrelevant if you don't have the money/credit to transact ;)
     
  19. myopic1

    myopic1 Regular Member

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    There's a private equity bubble that's beginning to show signs of bursting and it's fueled by frankly ridiculous valuations and funding thrown at any silicon valley company that says their going to 'make the world a better place by XYZ'. The immediate effects wont be obvious...so some multimillion/billionaires are losing their money, so what? The knock-on effect to the economy though could be significant.

    As for betting against it, potentially a struggling tech company is a viable option such as Twitter, which shows an unwillingness to innovate further, craps all over their developers and it'll most likely get hit as collateral when people realise that perhaps some of these tech companies are over valued.
     
  20. myopic1

    myopic1 Regular Member

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    I'm skeptical that there's a new property bubble though. The last one was of course fueled by credit but it's provision was due to there being incentives to supply credit by the creation of insane bond derivatives, created from said debt, that were as good as printing money on Wall Street. I could be wrong but I see the current trend in home price increases as being part of a 'rich outsiders' problem, with a landlord culture springing up from the willingness of Middle Eastern/Asian buyers to invest in prime real-estate in the US and UK.

    I'd be interested to see how this is reflected now that oil millionaires/billionaires are taking a hit and the entire Chinese economy looks like a bubble that's being propped up and inflated by its own government.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 29, 2016