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Thoughts on Bitcoin - where will it go from here?

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by davids355, Mar 9, 2014.

  1. davids355

    davids355 Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    Just wondering where you guys think bitcoin will go from here? Will it go back to where it was at $1200+ ?

    I am starting to buy them slowly, in the hope that they will.
     
  2. artizhay

    artizhay BANNED BANNED

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    Mt. Gox's shuttering could be seen as a good thing. Since they facilitated 80% of trade in the market, funds will now diffuse to other exchanges, providing somewhat more stability in the market rather than one exchange being responsible for the majority of price fluctuations.

    Bitcoin did seem to weather the Mt. Gox issue well enough, but I don't think we'll see it pushing new highs until there are significant advances in security from both internal and external attacks, because if one of the most trusted exchanges can no longer be trusted (whether we can't trust them to keep out intruders or can't trust the management team), then that implies people in the market will be wary of most other exchanges as well.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 9, 2014
  3. akshdalal

    akshdalal Regular Member

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    Whether, it gets to that value or not, but I am gonna soon start trading in bitcoins. :)
     
  4. davids355

    davids355 Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    That makes sense. And yes it seems to have weathered the storm of MTgox quite well.

    Good idea. Me too, I'm buying them up a bit at a time :)
     
  5. LukaB

    LukaB Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    artizhay has a good point. I think Bitcoin has HUGE potential. It is starting to be widely accepted, in offline stores and such.

    Eventually, 1 bank will start using BTC, that's when the BOOM strikes, it will cause a chain reaction of other banks to use it which will affect the stocks in a very positive way. I think BTC will reach well over $2k in the next 6 months.


    Luka
     
  6. lancis

    lancis Elite Member

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    According to Federal Reserve there are $1,200,000 million dollars on the market.
    The total number of Bitcoins that will ever be created is 12.5 million.

    At the same time there are 316 million Americans out there, meaning that if the capital was divided equally each American would own 3,800 USD or 0.04 BTC.

    This calculation has a lot of flaws, but it gives a good upper limit for the value of Bitcoin, which is equal to 3800/0.04 = 95,000 USD.
     
  7. 808080Hat

    808080Hat Registered Member

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    Don't want to be rude here, but this calculation makes zero sense.

    1.) The amount of btc created is a logarithmmic-looking function, the 12.5 million will never be reached
    2.) BTC isn't traded in the US alone. I don't even think that the US is the biggest market.
    3.) The money that is currently on the market will increase. Global debt increased by 43% since the fincancial crisis in 2008 and they'll need to throw more junk money after it.
    4.) There is a limit to the whole btc technology. The problem is not the amount of btc you can create, but the slow transaction. So this whole net will fail and it will fail before it gets interesting for big players to get in to.

    Edit: Global debt was off about 3 points which is only $ 3,000,000,000,000
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2014
  8. davids355

    davids355 Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    I like your thinking. It will be nice if it gets to that figure. At the moment I have a few alerts set up to keep an eye on movement.

    The only thing with bitcoin is how people will use bitcoin when it has such a high value - like a DVD might end up costing 0.0000001 bitcoins or something.

    i guess we'll need some terminology for certain denominations.

    Its as good a theory as any when talking bitcoin.
     
  9. lancis

    lancis Elite Member

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    As I said, there are a lot of flaws. It doesnt take into the account the following:
    1. Other fiat currency markets
    2. Other cryptocurrency markets
    3. Speculators (which can create bubbles)
    4. Inflation of fiat currencies
    5. The fact that new currencies create additional value on the market and thus devalue the existing currencies
    6. .etc
     
  10. 808080Hat

    808080Hat Registered Member

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    I don't know much about whats the state of affairs now and I'm scared money, but do other crypto currencies play a bigger role now? Is there a liquid market between btc and other crypto currencies? I always tought the problems are the huge transaction time and the undependable market makers. Since I've first seen the huge differences in crypto currencies on the markets I always wanted to develop a abritage bot, but with transaction times above 1 sec. this imho makes no sense unless you're willing to take huge risks and invest alot upfront. But the transaction times could be weeks from what I've read. I have no doubt that there are guys out there who do abritage since its easy, but do they make money?
     
  11. prab1996

    prab1996 Elite Member

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    what if us govt made a online wallet for $ ? people will trust it more and even paypal will meet a end .

    currently people buy coins as investment (from bit coin to doge coin )

    and why will it fail to become a common currency?

    there are two options -
    1. you purchased a bubble gum and gave $1 to shop owner.
    2. you purchased a bubble gum and asked shop owner for his long bitcoin address and then checked it two time to know if it's correct . then click on send 0.00000001 bitcoins and then waited for transition to proceed.


    -=-
     
  12. lancis

    lancis Elite Member

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    Regarding 2...

    You can build existing solutions on top of the Bitcoin. For example, you could have a Bitcoin credit card. Additionally, the transaction is immediate, its the confirmations that take time.

    Last, in the same fashion you pay with cents, you can pay with micro-bitcoins.
     
  13. prab1996

    prab1996 Elite Member

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    some days ago , russian govt took some harsh steps and sold some of it's foreign exchange reserves to maintain price of rubles.
    (because of russian military actions on ukraine the russian stock exchange crashed )

    where was bitcoin creator when mtgox crashed ? no one was their to maintain the price of bitcoin that time.
    if another exchange crashed in future who will take responsibility of losses bitcoin prices.

    us govt spends tons of money to make it safe. will bitcoin owner be able to do that ?
    (there is no other income source other then transaction fee)

    there is guarantee of govt on currency , who gives guarantee on bitcoins.
    if some one stole your coins once there is no way to get them back. but if some one stole your money then police will help you and bank will be liable to pay you if someone stoles $$ from your bank account.

    -=-
     
  14. lancis

    lancis Elite Member

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    Lets imagine BTC is the Russian national currency, what will Russia do to maintain its value?
    The same exact steps it did with Rubles! Nothing changes here, the rules of the game are still dictated by the global market even if you switch to Bitcoin. E.q. if you buy Bitcoin its value grows, if you sell Bitcoin its value diminishes.

    Who took responsibility for the crash of Zimbabwe dollars? If there is some global economic disaster US dollars will crash as well, and there is little US can do to stop it, same as with Bitcoins.

    US government also prints US dollars, thus forcing inflation. Will Bitcoin owner be able to do that?

    Have you forgotten Cyprus?
     
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  15. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    No worries, there are various solutions to this. Once it becomes a pressing issue, one of them will be incorporated into the protocol.
     
  16. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Speculators don't create bubbles. Bubbles are created by inflation. The only things speculators do is respond to market conditions and that 's a great thing.
     
  17. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Simple. Keep balances on every exchange so that you can arbitrage using them instead of waiting for the action transaction funds to move from place to place.

    Weeks? More like 20 min max, depending on the number of verifications required.
     
  18. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    Nowhere. That 's the idea, we don't want one entity controlling the currency.

    Safe? Inflating the currency is stealing from savers, not exactly the definition of safe :)

    If the government did not have somehow the power to inflate, then we wouldn't need BTC to protect us from that.
     
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  19. lancis

    lancis Elite Member

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    Ahh, my bad there, was supposed to be "speculation". I was referring to the situation where a large group of people get the wrong idea about future of the asset and start to buy in large volumes, thus forcing the value to go up beyond its intrinsic value.
     
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  20. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    There is no intrinsic value :)