NEED YOUR HELP - Crowd / Swarm Intelligence Experiment

Please read this until the end, I need your help for an interesting experiment.​

A few months ago my brother and I had a discussion about swarm intelligence in humans.
I just remembered our discussion and thought it would be a cool experiment to try here.

On the internet are plenty of videos and articles about swarm intelligence. I picked two out for you:

https://www.wondriumdaily.com/the-wisdom-of-crowds/
- TL;DR: 1906, 787 people guessed the weight of a steer. The average guess was 1,197 pounds. The actual weight of the steer was 1,198 pounds. This is just ~ 0.084% difference. Of course not all experiments had results like that. Some experiments had huge differences.

https://www.passageglobalcapital.com/the-wisdom-of-crowds/
- TL;DR: 1987, Jack Treynor brought a jar full of 850 jelly beans into his class and asked his students to guess the number of jelly beans inside. The group of 56 people guessed an average of 871 jelly beans, which is ~ 2.5% off. Only one of the students guesses was closer to 850 than the average.
2007, Michael Mauboussin asked 73 students to guess the number of jelly beans in his jar. The average guess was 1,151 while the actual number was 1,116. This is ~ 3.1% off.

If you are interested in more, just google or watch YouTube videos about it.

Our experiment:
I thought, if the average of multiple people can guess almost the exact weight of a steer, or the jelly beans inside a jar with a difference of about 3%, can we maybe predict a chart together?
Would it be possible to predict a chart of a crypto currency if everyone has the same infos? If this works it would be pretty cool. And if we can not predict it correct, it would be interesting how much % we were off.

The setup:
I will pick out an unknown crypto chart and show you the 1h, 4h and 1d view. Then everyone gives a prediction where the chart will be in a week on August 6th at 8pm UTC.
On August 6th at 8pm I will reveal the crypto currency, calculate the average of all predictions and post the results in this thread.

1h chart:


4h chart:


1d chart:

Again, on August 6th at 8pm UTC the average of all predictions will get posted here.​

I predict, the chart will be at 0.7155 in a week.

Now it is your turn. I appreciate every post with a prediction. So thank you in advance!

Note: Troll predictions like 0.1 or 5 will not be taken into the final calculation.

I predict 0.70

IMO financial forecasting / trading is much more complex than just fundamental analysis (although of course swarm intelligence is used as part of the decision making methods in some trading AIs).

Also, there are still dozens of factors that influence the price (take crypto alone lol - that can be manipulated at any time), is extremely volatile & unpredictable because of whales and large financial institutions.

0.71

AlexanderTheGreat said:

IMO financial forecasting / trading is much more complex than just fundamental analysis (although of course swarm intelligence is used as part of the decision making methods in some trading AIs).

Also, there are still dozens of factors that influence the price (take crypto alone lol - that can be manipulated at any time), is extremely volatile & unpredictable because of whales and large financial institutions.

Click to expand...

True, I would never invest real money in any experiment like this. But I thought it would be interesting how far we can go. Maybe we can even get close to the final price
Also in the first article I linked there is a headline "The Value of Diversity". For example if we had 50 trading experts with years of knowledge that would take part in this experiment, it would be much more likely to get to the exact price. But we do not have a group like this, you are completely right.

Bump, still need more predictions.

the number of a price change is influenced from lot of things, a jar full o beans... is a jar with bean that no one putting more inside or taking off the jar.

Don;t want to be a party popper but my ques is 0.64

Good luck on your experiment.

My guess is 5 billion. To hell with your experiment!