[JOURNEY] Trading Forex to Consistent Profits

i'm in another short position

i think i'm gonna post updates if i get whacked with a loss

because at the moment it will be quite a bit of posting

at this point i think i can just continue to lock in easy trades

maybe i've "made it", not sure

it does seem that my ability to predict the markets is getting better, compared to when i first started for sure

i'm sitting on 0.48% profit this week off 4 trades, won all of them

Entry Buy when Break Out Trendline.

Reason :
1. Left Box (Red Box) is Strong Support Zone and RBR Zone
2. Right Box (Blue Box) is Compressed Zone and Reversal zone for Red Box

Just share my analys

update: okay guys

please do not post pictures here

i do not want to have to keep asking mod to remove your picture because this journey thread is not dumping ground for posting pictures about your trade lol. you need to make separate journey for that bro

anyway bros, please relax

i will update the progress here, if you have question about methods, i can answer

if you want post about your own ranting about anlaysis and trade pics, i will have to try and get these post removed

plz no dumping ground bros

thanks

journey updates:

i have two short positions opened, looks like upthrust

i won a trade this morning, 0.22% profit

for my two short positions i think they'll be okay, will check up on them every 2 hours or so tho, may need to bail on them if they turn sideways

let's goo

i just lost both positions and lost all profits for this week and down 0.18% now

new rule: only one position is allowed to be open at a time

i suffered a minor loss but it's okay

the way i lost is the same situation that happened a week ago where i lost 2 trades in a row

i got in at the top of the trading range and shorted, price then continued to go up. i thought this was an upthrust after distribution so i shorted again

price continued to go up even more. at that point i screwed up, should only have opened 1 position max, even if it means missing out on an potential upthrust

doubling is too risky regardless of circumstance, because the loss if it doesn't work out is too great. this was not upthrust, it was an uptrend and the buying climax had still a ways to go

i basically shorted into a buying climax lol. that is not good at all, didn't even realize buying climax was forming at the time tho. but yeah that can happen, that's why having 100% win rate is not possible

best response here is to just take the L, and make the money back. no doubling up though, that basically causes my strategy to be unprofitable

GG

Reddit got you into forex? Wild. Good to see you actually putting in the work though, most just hop in and blow their accounts. Keep tweaking that risk managemen

a green candle just exploded and i won a trade off of it

0.30% profit

placed a buy trade here

i got in right before that green candle exploded, that was the last trade i won

maybe i can grab another win on this next position

starting today i was basically at break even, then got in a trade that is right now negative

i think i should be fine though, just gotta wait it out

i'm checking the charts less often and using alerts instead, to keep me updated

i think i can earn 0.40% profit per day, and get away with only losing 1 trade in a week for a maximum of 0.50% loss

if these numbers hold true then i can make 1-1.5% profit per week which works for me

all depends on how often i lose though. the past 2 weeks i have noticed that i lose one trade a week. it's because the market basically breaks out in a new direction and i have to exit my old position at a loss. that happens 1 time per week from what i've observed

will continue and see how it goes, already seeing if i can get out of my current trade at break even

i just got cooked

lost 2% of my capital

slapped back to the drawing board

and so we go

i honestly need a slow day tbh, so i'm not too concerned

part of being trader is being able to casually do your work, and still make profit. if i have to be high strung 24/7 in order to make profit, then it isn't really sustainable career

need to be able to be chill while i do this work

i need time to write a more legit solution to this tho, right now i just feel like chilling

UPDATE:

it's very obvious that my strategy still needs work

this week i've identified a number of problems. at the moment i am down 4.88%

there are many issues wrong with my strategy

first off, my stop loss is still not wide enough. i ended up getting stopped out on a price spike still

the issue is that price explodes crazily for 5-6 hours straight. i need my stop loss to be wide enough to cover all of that price action. why do i need this? because i need to stay in whatever trade i'm in until after the explosion finally settles

price action cannot swing violently forever, eventually the pressure goes away, usually at 3pm-5pm eastern when the markets are closing

at this point, when the price is settling for the past 1-2 hours, this is when i can evaluate the structure and exit my position

it's not good to exit a position while price is exploding all over the place. because there is still a possibility to get out at a better price once price has settled

i'm not a big fan of getting stopped out of trades, i think it's a much profitable move to be able to survive all the swings and then assess what to do once things settle


the next problem is what i mentioned earlier this week, i should not open more than 1 position at one time

basically no doubling up. that causes too many issues


and lastly, i need a way to recover profit from losses

this strategy i am doing has a high win rate, about 60-80%. i still end up losing here and there though

as a result of a high win rate, a loss ends up knocking out like 4-5 winning trades. so 1 loss will fuck me over completely

i need a way to minimize this fuckery

which is why i think implementing a martingale strategy when it comes to risk would be beneficial for me

basically i start trading with a wide stop loss. if i lose the trade, then the next trade i take i reduce the stop loss by half. if i lose that trade, then the next one i reduce the stop loss by half again

i keep doing this until i finally win a trade

my risk per trade is still 2% of my capital, but when i finally win, the reward will be much higher than any other trade before it. so i can win back the money i lost

adding in a strategy like this can help me recover from the losses. remember, 1 loss equals 4-5 winning trades. but if i win the next trade, i could probably recover half that loss, so i need less winning trades to get back up to break even and then profit


clearly there are still issues with my current strategy

but i think making these adjustments will allow me to win more trades, and recover much better when i lose

let's goo

CPANathan said:

Keep an eye on your taxes mate

I recently traumatized myself trying to earn a bit of my savings

Click to expand...

How much tax you were charged? You did not check slabs before?

Nice journey. I wish you all the best with your journey.

bros, i just got knocked out

lost something like 14% this week

that's pretty much it for me

going to be withdrawing all the money from my account, it's only like $60 left

i got my teeth kicked in

moving forward i will only be paper trading, not gonna bother wasting money until i've proven profitable

lesson learned, forex will shit on you!

bros, i am paper trading, just to stay in the game for a bit

i do think that most likely i won't be able to last for at least 2 weeks

2 weeks time is usually when the current strategy i am doing ends up blowing up, and i pretty much can't continue trading it so i have to make change

so yes, i made some slight change

but idk what will happen, i may end up ditching it, just dabbling right now

my current change is instead of trying to trade pieces within the trading range, according to wyckoff

this time i aiming to just assess correctly if it is distribution or accumulation, and whether uptrend or downtrend is coming next

so i can get in anywhere i want during the trade range, just need to make sure i get it right whether it goes up or down

the way i trying to do this is by using 50 simple moving average and 200 sma

also i'm watching for the formation of springs or upthrusts if the moving averages are too close to the price

and lastly my stop loss is very wide so any whipsaws due to news volatility don't kick me out of trade. as long as i make correct assessment of up or down, then i can be profitable trader

i need a high win rate tho. for example, out of 10 trades i take like this, i can only get 1 trade wrong

so yeah, if i can pull that off consistently then that is pretty much skill

this is what i am thinking now, maybe this will change tomorrow but oh knows

update:

i am just doing some backtesting now

using tradingview bar replay mode

also switched to trading usd/jpy for now, just seeing what i can do. seeing if i can notice any patterns or simple things i can adhere to

this journey thread is the rambling of a mad man

prepare to see all sorts of crazy schizo behavior, jumping from one idea to the next

it's okay though, just need time to scan all my options and assess everything one by one

i do feel confident that i know the right decisions to make, based on logic and what seems right to do

update:

i have been backtest a bit more, just dabbling in some stuff

i deposited $30 back into my account

this is so i can wait out the 6 days and have it clear so it can be available for future

i do think testing with real money is better because it accounts for spreads and slippage, whereas with paper trade these things don't contribute which is not good, i want to test in a real scenario

on other hand i won't be dumbass and jump in, and blow this $30 quick. no, that is not the point

i am doing back test, trying to see if i can find something that makes sense to me. so far i am testing break and retest strategy, 1 to 3 risk to reward ratio, 5-10 trades per week only during asian session

losing trades is common, like 30% win rate

but 1 win is big, 3x the gain from 1 loss

maybe risking 0.50% per trade will yield a favorable return without too much draw down

these are just a sample of the things i am looking at now and making determinations as to what is the best methods to approach this

UPDATE

just back tested the past 3 weeks on a different pair with pretty good results

29 trades tested, around 10 trades a week, 41% win rate

total profit 5.10% risking 0.50% per trade

pretty solid results

idk how that will perform in practice though

this method requires me to be at my computer from 6pm eastern to 12am est monday to friday

so yeah, there is an "office work" setting to it

need to watch the asian session as it develops and take trades based on what candles form

idk if having to check charts for 6 hours is a valid reason to bch about, but we will see

at the moment i wanna see if it's practical for me to stick to this trade plan and execute it habitually without issue

a potential roadblock i see is me becoming too impatient and bored, waiting for what could be 1 trade in the span of 6 hours

i would most likely have to start setting up alerts when price crosses a key area. regardless though i will still have to be by my computer and ready in the event that i do get an alert, this is not something i can do on the go. this is the 15 minute chart so each 15 min produces a candle that i need to be aware of

anyway let's see what happens, i have $15 available for tomorrow that i can use, then next week i can get access to my full $30

let's goo!

bros!

let's go!

it's time to make money!