Thanks for your input. Had a small look yesterday and some asian bookies do not accept customers from germany and on others I wasn't able to find the option to bet exact results (for example on pinnacle).
I'll soon have a look around at other bookies, thankd
You're right, Pinnacle has the correct score market on very few matches and it's a shame the others you've checked don't allow German bettors.
Maybe just one of them might allow Germans and that will be enough - their odds aren't that different from Pinnie's.
Just remembered an old news that Betfair has withdrawn from German market too years ago, not sure if it's still the same.
Still, there are hundreds of bookies, many of them reputable, you can find lists all over the net, one for example here:
https://www.bookmakersreview.com/ratings/all
On topic about the prediction method itself. Someone already posted about the odds you're getting need to be considered.
Absolutely.
The thing with sports betting is this: you can't win in long term unless you are betting on value, i.e the odds you bet on (converted in probabilities) are higher than the true probability of the score to actually occur. This probability is intrinsically there, it exists, though no one knows its exact distribution because it depends on so many factors. All we can do is try and estimate it as correctly as we can.
So if we only bet on odds with value, then we will turn profit in the long run, no matter what - the Law of large numbers dictates it. For this to happen though we need:
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1. To correctly estimate the true probability with as little margin of error as possible.
2. Find odds that are higher than that.
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On the other hand, if we only bet on the most likely outcome, being it predicted by algorithm or handicapper, and disregard the odds we are getting - just bet on whatever odds the bookie has to offer, that won't cut it. And that's even if we assume the prediction for this outcome to be the most likely of all possible outcomes is absolutely spot on.
If we are consistently getting odds lower than the true probability of the outcome to occur, then we will lose money, no matter what.
Is it possible that your algorithm is finding value even without you considering it actively? Well, it's not impossible, but seems unlikely, given that it doesn't even consider the odds for its prediction. For it to find value consistently this way it has to be that the bookies are consistently underestimating the probability of the most likely (according to your predictor) outcome for some reason and offering higher than fair odds.
