issorc
Senior Member
- Feb 20, 2016
- 826
- 765
Hey guys,
I'm currently working on a project that I've mainly started for fun and learning and that now maybe turned into a possibility to make some money. As I neglected other projects for this it's actually nearly necessary that I make some money.
Background:
I've been programming for 5 years now and worked on many different projects in a few programming languages. I wouldn't call me an expert though because most of the times I worked on my own projects where I did not care about the best or most efficient code. But as I was working as a software developer for a few month and had courses in algorithms and data structures plus tons of private programming experience I'm no beginner either. I was always fascinated by AI and would love to be able to work in the field of Data Science later so I decided to take the first step. Finished a small course about machine learning (there's still a million things left I need to learn) and started in the field of Deep Learning afterwards. After I learned the basics with some test data provided by a course I was taking I wanted to try it on data I gathered myself. And this is where this journey starts (or started)
As I first had to get data to train my Artificial Neural Network (ANN) I wrote a small web scraper in Python. I never used python before but I didn't want to waste my time on a beginner course so I just google in case I get stuck. My scraper runs with BeautifulSoup and gathers data about soccer. Right now I do have a dataset with a bit more than 5000 games, including results and additionial stats. I used ~4000 rows to train the network and 1046 to test the network. After days of optimizing the different layers and variables my best model currently predicts 260 out of 1046 games right. That are 24,85% and I'm sure I can hit 25% sooner or later. And we're talking about correct score prediction here, not the winner or a possible draw.
Yesterday came the day I started to use my predictions for betting. I loaded 15€ onto my betting account and had 16,12€ afterwards. I betted before but yet I lost all my money (except 1,12€ that's why I have 16,12€).
When I was betting before I just placed a bet on which team I thought was more likely to win. I did not care about injuries, stats or other stuff. Just based on my knowledge and interest in the sport. I'll bet everything my tool predicts, no matter how stupid it sounds to me. I trust the predictions of the tool much more than mine.
So I used these 16,12€ as following:
22x single bets with a stake of 0,2€
2x combi bets with a stake of 2x 0,2€ and 1x 0,32€
2x system bets with doubles out of 8 with a stake of 0,2€ and therefore 5,6€ for each system bet
The system bets are combinations of the single bets, so every bet inside a system bet is placed as a single too.
Except one BTTS Single, BTTS combi, combi with BTTS and winner, and O2,5 single all bets are correct score bets.
I already created an excel table yesterday to keep track of my performance in the different categories and types of bets. This will be mainly used to optimize my strategy in later stages (if I don't go broke until then)
Current Results:
I know, this wouldn't be interesting without numbers so let's talk some figures here.
Invested: 16,12€
Yesterday's bets:
Combi - BTTS - Lost - -0,32€
Single - Correct Score - Lost - -0,20€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 1,32€
Single - BTTS - Won - 0,18€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 1,04€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 0,94€
Overall: 2,96€
As all three games that I won yesterday are also in one system bet of doubles I already have 27,80€ safe of that bet. Without the stake of 5,6€ that leaves us at 22,20€ that I'll surely profit from that bet.
So total profit for yesterday actually is more like 25,16€
I got extremely lucky yesterday because results were much better as in my test data so I'm excited to see how this continues. I still have 20 bets open and no matter how they end I already nearly doubled my 16€.
I'll update on each day in case I placed a bet for the day before. Two bets open for tonight so expect the first update tomorrow. Both have high odds and are pretty unlikely to happen imo but we'll see.
In case you find that interesting and want to follow along, I'd appreciate your input and thoughts about this. If you have any questions about AI or deep learning, or even web scraping, don't hesitate to ask, I'm happy to help, although I'm just beginning to dig into that topic. I can only recommend it because It'll play a huge role in the future and it's actually pretty easy to start. A guy on reddit once said that for deep learning you need "days to start, but years to master" and that is as far as I can tell, completely true.
Until the next update, I hope you enjoyed reading, although it's not the classical amazon affiliate or instagram journey
I'm currently working on a project that I've mainly started for fun and learning and that now maybe turned into a possibility to make some money. As I neglected other projects for this it's actually nearly necessary that I make some money.
Background:
I've been programming for 5 years now and worked on many different projects in a few programming languages. I wouldn't call me an expert though because most of the times I worked on my own projects where I did not care about the best or most efficient code. But as I was working as a software developer for a few month and had courses in algorithms and data structures plus tons of private programming experience I'm no beginner either. I was always fascinated by AI and would love to be able to work in the field of Data Science later so I decided to take the first step. Finished a small course about machine learning (there's still a million things left I need to learn) and started in the field of Deep Learning afterwards. After I learned the basics with some test data provided by a course I was taking I wanted to try it on data I gathered myself. And this is where this journey starts (or started)
As I first had to get data to train my Artificial Neural Network (ANN) I wrote a small web scraper in Python. I never used python before but I didn't want to waste my time on a beginner course so I just google in case I get stuck. My scraper runs with BeautifulSoup and gathers data about soccer. Right now I do have a dataset with a bit more than 5000 games, including results and additionial stats. I used ~4000 rows to train the network and 1046 to test the network. After days of optimizing the different layers and variables my best model currently predicts 260 out of 1046 games right. That are 24,85% and I'm sure I can hit 25% sooner or later. And we're talking about correct score prediction here, not the winner or a possible draw.
Yesterday came the day I started to use my predictions for betting. I loaded 15€ onto my betting account and had 16,12€ afterwards. I betted before but yet I lost all my money (except 1,12€ that's why I have 16,12€).
When I was betting before I just placed a bet on which team I thought was more likely to win. I did not care about injuries, stats or other stuff. Just based on my knowledge and interest in the sport. I'll bet everything my tool predicts, no matter how stupid it sounds to me. I trust the predictions of the tool much more than mine.
So I used these 16,12€ as following:
22x single bets with a stake of 0,2€
2x combi bets with a stake of 2x 0,2€ and 1x 0,32€
2x system bets with doubles out of 8 with a stake of 0,2€ and therefore 5,6€ for each system bet
The system bets are combinations of the single bets, so every bet inside a system bet is placed as a single too.
Except one BTTS Single, BTTS combi, combi with BTTS and winner, and O2,5 single all bets are correct score bets.
I already created an excel table yesterday to keep track of my performance in the different categories and types of bets. This will be mainly used to optimize my strategy in later stages (if I don't go broke until then)
Current Results:
I know, this wouldn't be interesting without numbers so let's talk some figures here.
Invested: 16,12€
Yesterday's bets:
Combi - BTTS - Lost - -0,32€
Single - Correct Score - Lost - -0,20€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 1,32€
Single - BTTS - Won - 0,18€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 1,04€
Single - Correct Score - Won - 0,94€
Overall: 2,96€
As all three games that I won yesterday are also in one system bet of doubles I already have 27,80€ safe of that bet. Without the stake of 5,6€ that leaves us at 22,20€ that I'll surely profit from that bet.
So total profit for yesterday actually is more like 25,16€
I got extremely lucky yesterday because results were much better as in my test data so I'm excited to see how this continues. I still have 20 bets open and no matter how they end I already nearly doubled my 16€.
I'll update on each day in case I placed a bet for the day before. Two bets open for tonight so expect the first update tomorrow. Both have high odds and are pretty unlikely to happen imo but we'll see.
In case you find that interesting and want to follow along, I'd appreciate your input and thoughts about this. If you have any questions about AI or deep learning, or even web scraping, don't hesitate to ask, I'm happy to help, although I'm just beginning to dig into that topic. I can only recommend it because It'll play a huge role in the future and it's actually pretty easy to start. A guy on reddit once said that for deep learning you need "days to start, but years to master" and that is as far as I can tell, completely true.
Until the next update, I hope you enjoyed reading, although it's not the classical amazon affiliate or instagram journey
