Betting journey

kolikko said:

professional sportbetters do avg 101-105% ROI. you easily go broke with that kind of betting sizes when you don't have enough bankroll.
Playing with small sizes and doing arbitrage betting is also risk for them to limit your wages or never let you to cashout.

Betting size of 2000 bets can make an indication if you are a winning player or not as some other user stated before.

Good luck to your journey.

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ToTheMood said:

How do you choose your bets?

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Tom4r1 said:

Not trying to discourage you, but I've been working with and for bookies for years.

A decent, and I do say decent not a sure thing, sample size is 1,100 bets with 5% yield. That means that the p value for your strategy is below 0.05, meaning that there's 95% chance that it's not just luck.

What you should be looking at is CLV (Closing Line Value). This means if the odds you placed the bet with are better than what they are when the game begins. If you're consistently beating the closing line value, then you're likely on to something, as the books balance the odds based on the incoming bets. However, if you're betting at closing line value or at worse odds, I won't even trust you with a 1,000 bet sample size. There is a way to bet at closing line value too and make a profit, but that is getting too complicated for me to write out here.


So my first few tips would be.
1. Track your closing line value with betprops or some similar software
2. Invest in a software like rebelbetting which lets you identify the value bets at soft sportsbooks
3. Track odds changes across multiple bookies
4. Automate as much as you can. Because even if you think you're really sharp. And I'm not saying that you're not. There are tons of other sharps with tons of money out there that will bet out of really valuable value bets if you are just betting major sports.

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INVINCIBLETA said:

Yes well my average odds rn is 2.2 per bet. Multiply that with me winning 55-60% of all bets. Should yield profit longterm.

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Tom4r1 said:

Of course, if you can keep it up for 1,000+ bets. Right now a blind monkey placing the same bets as you still has 1/3 or slightly better chance of achieving the same results because your p value is around 0.3. That's what statistical significance is. But best of luck, it's completely possible that your model is sound. There are some out there, I've used them myself too.

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Tom4r1 said:

So p value in itself is not important for calculating profitability. It's calculating probability of an event. So 0.5 p value is 50% 0.3 is 30% and 0.05 is 5% (which is commonly thought of as the marker for statistical significance)

As for the formula, I would just google p value calculator and follow the instructions. It's more complex math than I can do. I just know a few examples.

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