BANG! BITCOIN BABY
- Thread starter Sol
- Start date
- Jul 12, 2015
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Consider allocating a few % of your overall net worth to Bitcoin, and store it on a hardware wallet for safety.
Also, Investing a small portion in gold, even as little as 1% of your total net worth, is great for diversification, even if you're biased against it.
Gold has been used for trade and wealth preservation for the past 3,000+ years
Investing in two of the best assets in the world isn't a bad decision.
In the end, Diversification is the key to stable, low-volatility, long-term wealth creation.
People were hyping it up to go to $40k - $50k by January but it dumped in December and everyone got rekt.
Good times.
Also, Investing a small portion in gold, even as little as 1% of your total net worth, is great for diversification, even if you're biased against it.
Gold has been used for trade and wealth preservation for the past 3,000+ years
Investing in two of the best assets in the world isn't a bad decision.
In the end, Diversification is the key to stable, low-volatility, long-term wealth creation.
I also remember that, It was after the CME futures listing that it dumped.For those of us who are old: I remember the bull run of 2017 christmas. BTC went from 6K USD to 20K USD in 2 months. Remember, history repeats.
People were hyping it up to go to $40k - $50k by January but it dumped in December and everyone got rekt.
Good times.
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Sure
N0str
BANNED
- Sep 20, 2023
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Pretty sure once halving kicks in and ETFs get approved we’ll get a huge influx of capital, new ATH is imminent.
Benji1
Registered Member
- Jan 15, 2022
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When do you think is a good time to Buy BTC?
widowmaker123
Registered Member
- Aug 26, 2023
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Tether is the single reason why the last bull runs occured.
They created the illusion that every 4 years a bull run starts so over the years this turned into a collective self-fulfilling prophecy.
Tether was built by criminals which did also lie about the reserves that are very very likely not nearly as high as they should be (ideally 1:1 as the market cap of tether).
The whole industry (I mean the big players like exchanges, big holders etc.) accept this because their business model relies on this big fraud to be ongoing.
So, what do you think made the btc price go up in the last 2 weeks?
And by the way, you dont have to believe me, just look it up yourself.
Good start is the videos coffeezilla made about tether.
They created the illusion that every 4 years a bull run starts so over the years this turned into a collective self-fulfilling prophecy.
Tether was built by criminals which did also lie about the reserves that are very very likely not nearly as high as they should be (ideally 1:1 as the market cap of tether).
The whole industry (I mean the big players like exchanges, big holders etc.) accept this because their business model relies on this big fraud to be ongoing.
So, what do you think made the btc price go up in the last 2 weeks?
And by the way, you dont have to believe me, just look it up yourself.
Good start is the videos coffeezilla made about tether.
Exxtra
BANNED
- Aug 9, 2009
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This highlights the scam of crypto, and the false beliefs that drive people to it. If you wanted to mitigate the effects of inflation, your best bet is going to be buying Treasury Bonds or gold/silver coins.
Why?
Because crypto is not an "asset" it is an imaginary token. Bonds, Notes, and other financial instruments are, fundamentally, promises to pay. They are defunct promises, but they are still contracts and as long as the system is based upon credit, promises to pay will have value that can be enforced in court.
Crypto is entirely without accountability, and there is nothing that can be enforced in court because crypto itself is literally nothing. The exchange rate between crypto and notes is entirely arbitrary. People originally proclaimed that crypto was all about "decentralizing" and "breaking free" from the bankers, but instead they played right into the scheme under even worse terms than they would be had they just exchanged their notes for treasury bonds.
Do you ever see people advertising products or services for units of crypto? No. They almost always ask for some amount of USD but say "will accept crypto" based on the current exchange rate. If all you wanted was a way to transfer fiat without involving banks, there are much simpler ways to accomplish this then by using crypto.
- Oct 9, 2013
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Wrong on multiples levels. The belief its nothing is also entirely false. It is a secure proven technology that is recognized by the SEC as a commodity.
No offence, but when you aren’t even correctly using the term “asset” you are not qualified to be giving such strong advice about anything finance related.
Bitcoin is an asset.
Bonds are assets.
CASH is an asset.
Bitcoin however is considered a commodity.
Do some research and study.
You can also read my detailed post i made here explaining why bitcoin is going to be the reserve asset for corporations: https://www.blackhatworld.com/seo/what-can-you-do-with-200k.1539518/page-3#post-16934299
Inflation is 8% at least on the dollar. US bonds are at 5.5%
Fine for some of your cash, but bitcoin is a far better commodity to buy and hold outside of bull runs.
Gold is at an inflated 30 year all time high. It is NOT going to go higher. Buying gold at this stage is risky and you get no yield. Bitcoin has no yield but anyone that thinks bitcoin is going to drop after really digesting my post either doesnt understand the implications or is a troll
Exxtra
BANNED
- Aug 9, 2009
- 447
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"Recognition by the SEC" means nothing, other than a formality so they can attempt to apply their statutes to the tokens and claim something is due.
Money is either lawfully minted gold and silver coin, or it is a promise to pay backed by the same. If it is neither, IT IS NOT MONEY.
To claim crypto is an "asset", tell me how much buying power 1 bitcoin on its own should have WITHOUT consulting the exchange rate of bitcoin to fiat. Can you do that? No, you can't. If these silly exchanges didn't exist, how much is your bitcoin worth? Nothing, because it is neither money nor is it a promise to pay. It is literally nothing.
The most you could say that crypto is, is like the paper upon which financial instruments are printed. Is the paper that a bond or note is printed upon a 'commodity' in the same sense that financial instruments are? No. It's just a piece of blank paper.
I don't recall advising anyone; I am merely stating indisputable facts that cultists like yourself are completely ignorant of. You are misleading people by falsely claiming that any crypto, bitcoin or otherwise, has any value outside of private contracts where two parties agree that it has value.
Bonds are contracts, and support by well-established contract law and common-law.
Cash is simply a term that refers to readily transferable financial instruments, which can include both coins, negotiable instruments, or even legal tender. The prevailing characteristic of something being "cash" is that it is liquid and does not need to be sold or exchanged before being used as money or as the equivalent of money.
Utterly delusional, as are most of you pseudo-economists who think that crypto is anything more than a token or METHOD of exchange.
You can purchase bonds on margin at most brokers, with very low rates, and at least 4x, which means your net return would be 4 x 5.5% - margin rate which is typically 2-3% - that works out to a net amount of 19-20% annualized return if you buy treasury bonds on margin.
You need to stop calling a token a commodity, or else, explain to me how much a single bitcoin is worth on its own. Should 1 bitcoin be enough to buy a house, a car, a loaf of bread, some seeds? What?
The exchange rate for crypto to USD is not due to "value" of crypto increasing, but rather the value of USD falling. Gold and Silver coins minted in the US prior to 1933 are lawful tender and remain such to this day. You can use a single silver dollar to extinguish any amount of claimed indebtedness denominated in USD.
- Oct 9, 2013
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What can I even say to any of this?
It's all ad-hominem, opinion and straw-man argument. You've not even correctly understood my arguments.
I could just give you an example to show you how your definition of an asset being something that has an agreed upon value in the marketplace doesn't hold true.
Property.
By your definition, property is not an asset, since we have to exchange it to dollars.
I don't know why you're going on about 'cash' and 'money'. That has nothing to do with anything.
I explained to you assets include crypto, currency, property, minerals and many other things. It's a very broad spectrum of entities with a positive value.
Bitcoin is a commodity. It's not a currency.
You dismiss an entire in-depth post I made with ad-hominem. Calling me a pseudo-economist.
Instead of addressing each point I made in my post and giving me a response rooted in intellectual reason, you just call me "delusional". After calling me some names, which is just.. Not useful. You can call me what you want, but it's not at all useful. It's something people of low intelligence engage in. They feel threatened and unable to act with reason, so they lash out with attacks. I'm not saying you're of low intelligence, but you're doing what someone of low intelligence does. I'm trying to have a sophisticated discussion here.
And I never actually attacked you by saying you need to study up on your definitions. I stated an absolute fact, that your understanding of assets is wrong. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asset.asp
It has a specific definition, you can't just change what it means to suit your anti-bitcoin agenda. I'm also not sure *why* you would be so against bitcoin in the first place.
You cannot argue like this. It's not argument.
You launch into discussing bonds and tell me they're well supported by common-law. That's wonderful, but it has nothing to do with what we're talking about.
Then you say you can buy bonds on margin to get 19-20% returns... Come on, are you serious? This would be like printing money.
Your argument against bitcoin's usefulness is that you can simply buy bonds on margin to make a nice 20% return. No, you cannot.
It's not economically sound.
Let's do some math here.
Example, you invest $1000 in bonds. For simplicity let's say yield is 5%. So you'll net $50 in 12 months without leverage.
Now, one thing to bare in mind here is, when bond yields are high, interest is high, so borrowing money is expensive. This is why I say it's not economically sound.
If you want to make 20% interest on your $1000 through leverage, you need to borrow an extra $3000 at 0% interest, or, $6000 at 2.5% interest
If you can get your margin account funded at 2.5% then hot damn, you can basically print money here. Why stop at 20%? You can have infinite returns here. Just borrow $10 million at 2.5% and buy bonds. Retire to a beach and enjoy. Heck just borrow $100 mil.
Of course, why would anyone with $100 million give you $100 million to get a 2.5% return, so you can just go and buy a bond at 5% when they can um, buy that bond themselves?
No, what they do is fund your margin account at rates ABOVE bonds. Loaning to you is HIGHER RISK than bonds, so why would they give you better interest rates than they give to the US gov.
You will not get money cheaper than bonds, ever. US bonds are the safest investment you can make in the global market. There is nothing safer today than a US bond.
Sure, you could do this with risky corporate bonds. But good luck with those leverage levels and risky bonds.
What margin accounts are used for is when you believe you can make a very high return like 15-20% over the short term on something. You believe you can beat the market.
You are literally just writing things you have no knowledge or experience in.
Here - https://www.fidelity.com/trading/margin-loans/margin-rates
Fidelity's current base margin rate as of July 28th 2023 is 12.325%
https://www.schwab.com/margin/margin-rates-and-requirements
Schwab's base margin rate is 11.75% as of July 28th 2023.
So tell me, please, where can I get margin for less than 5% interest? I'll shut down my entire business, sell everything I have and invest it all in that RIGHT NOW, if that exists.
schwab will do 11.825% for $250k to $500 mil.
Fidelity will do 9.25% for $1 mil+
Where's this cheap money I can get today, while treasuries have yields up to 5.56%?
The thing is, you can probably get away with just pulling crap like "19-20% annualized returns on margin buying bonds" with most people who don't really know anything about financial markets, but when you try that with someone who's not just going to scratch their head and dribble, it doesn't really work very well.
What's next?
Edit,
Oh, and just because I love ripping cocky people to shreds.
Do I now?
https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/oceo_bitcoinbasics0218.pdf
Then, the CFTC needs to also stop calling bitcoin a commodity.
What do they know though..
They're just the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but I'm sure you know more than them.
P.S. You do not understand what a commodity is.
Once again, I say. GO AND STUDY. LEARN. READ.
Exxtra
BANNED
- Aug 9, 2009
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Nothing because you don't really know what you are talking about and you are misleading people.
No, we're speaking English here not latin, and crying about your feelings is virtue-signaling. Property is a thing you own. An asset is property that has value: so answer my question, how much is 1 bitcoin worth? Don't look at the exchanges to answer: just one bitcoin on its own, how much should I be able to buy?
Notice, people, how he evades that simple question - because he is claiming that crypto is an asset when the reality is that crypto is just a token used for transferring fiat. Nobody cares about 100 bitcoins, but they care when you tell them you can exchange each one for $25-30K or more. It's the FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES that they want.
Blah blah blah you don't know anything about anything so you're going to rattle off lingo in an attempt to bamboozle people. A commodity is not an intangible thing. A commodity is a product, like coffee, which is sold based by "market price" and not by competitive differences that may warrant higher or lower prices for the product. Salt is a commodity. Salt is salt to most people. Nobody cares where it comes from, and there is little justification to charge a varying prices per unit of weight for salt (or coffee). That's what a commodity is. Crypto is not that.
I stated the fact, and why are you expecting people to waste time replying to utter nonsense?
You can't own something that doesn't exist, and for something to be an asset you need to own it. What evidence do you have that you own a bitcoin? PROVE IT.
Listen, clown, the margin loan is based on the "cash" value of your account. You cannot borrow arbitrary amounts; you are extended additional buying power based on the available cash. For bonds, you are usually extended 400% of the cash balance for buying treasury bonds. That means with $100K in your account you can buy $400K worth of bonds. Because you are multiplying your buying power by 4, you are effectively earning a return of 4x4.4% on your deposit.
Interactive Brokers margin rates around 6.5%, doofus. Once again proving how clueless you are, and how cult-like your belief in the lies of crypto extend. Then, you fail to realize that the coupon rate of the bond is not the same as the effective rate, because bonds can be bought at a discount. And with treasury bonds you can leverage your cash deposit by 4x, which means $100K account can buy up to $400K worth of bonds - you are paying interest on 75% of the purchase amount if you take advantage of the 4x leverage, so 3/4 of 6.5% = 4.875% net margin rate. Whatever you can earn above that is free money.
So, let's say your effective rate for a bond is 10% and you deposit $100K to buy $400K worth of the bonds.
You are earning 10% on $400K
You are paying 4.875% on $400K
Your net profit is 5.125% on $400K
But your deposit is only $100K, so if you did a cash-only purchase of bonds with 10% effective rate, your annual profit is $10,000.
Using margin and purchasing bonds at the right time means you are earning $20,500 annually, or 20.5% on $100K. Get it?
LOL Your lack of self-awareness is comical.
Them calling it that for the sole purpose of roping it into a legislative jurisdiction is not a good thing, and you harping on that like it proves your delusions just shows how decoupled from reality, unhinged, you really are.
MucahitGursoy
Junior Member
- Feb 3, 2021
- 113
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I believe that Bitcoin will continue to rise dramatically till the end of this year.
- Oct 9, 2013
- 3,471
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Again with the personal attacks. If you can't attack the argument, attack the person arguing. The weapon of choice of those without intellectual sophistication.
What people? It's just me and you in this conversation. You're not on stage.
I've not answered it, because I addressed in another point that this has nothing to do with something being an asset or not.
You are defining an asset as something tradable in units of that asset. By this definition, property is not an asset.
"Nobody cares about 100 houses, but they care when they tell them you can exchange each one for $xxxxxx-$yyyyyyyy or more."
"Nobody cares about 100kg of gold, but they care when they can tell them you can exchange each one for $30k to $70k or more."
By your definition, property and gold are not assets because you can't tell me how much they're worth, without converting them to USD.
You just can't help yourself can you? Again, you are repeating that I don't know anything. Who are you trying to convince, me or you? Or "the people"?
Just because you are bamboozled, doesn't mean what I'm saying is incorrect. It just means you lack the ability to understand the argument and facts being put forward. I'm sorry if that's harsh, but what else can be said. You're calling a tree a monkey, then attacking me for saying a tree is a tree.
You are CHANGING the definition of what a commodity is to being physical, tangible things only. You can't do that. You can't just change a thing, argue for it, then say people don't know what they're talking about because they don't agree with your new definition that a tree is a monkey.
The definition of commodity is
"an article of trade or commerce, especially a product as distinguished from a service."
"something of use, advantage or value"
It comes from the latin word commoditās which means suitability and benefit.
The vast majority of commodities are physical, but it's a logical error on your part to extrapolate this to mean that all commodities must be physical.
Electricity is a commodity. It's not physical. You can't hold it, see it, touch it. It's not physical AT ALL. It does not exist. I mean that in the most literal sense. It is the movement of charge through the electrons of the path of the current.
Source: https://commodity.com/energy/electricity/
You see, I actually attack your arguments and explain using logic why you are wrong, citing sources where necessary. I don't just say "blah blah, you know nothing, you're dumb, you bamboozle people and shit all over my keyboard"
Electricity does not exist to a monkey.
Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Bitcoin exists. By very definition you can prove that you own something. This is the absolute core asset at the center of public-key cryptography. I hold the private key, thus that proves my ownership.
This is just bizarre now. How could you even think that bitcoin doesn't have ownership? You are very, VERY confused.
You own a house because you have the deeds.
You own bitcoin because you have the private key.
You are now changing the definition of ownership to only include something that has a either a central register of ownership, or, what, something you can put in your pocket?
How do you prove you own that $100 bill?
This entire thing is so bizarre. I don't think you've stated one thing that's even remotely accurate. This is a giant waste of time. Almost every line you write can be disputed so easily.
Ahh, we were due another insult.
I'm a clown now, because I showed you that you can't print money with buying bonds on margin?
I'm a doofus as well?
You can't get 10% on a bond. You're just creating imaginary figures.
This is pure and absolute fantasy.
The formula for calculating EAR is ( 1 + i/n)^n - 1
Where i is the coupon rate and n is the number of payments per year. Ie, for a 3 month bond, n = 4
So the EAR for a 3 month bond is
EAR = ( 1 + 0.0546/4)^4 - 1 = 0.05572814292457400625 = 5.57%
Want to argue with the math?
This is totally bonkers, that you're trying to say with a straight face you can turn a bond with a yield of 5.46% into having an EAR of 10%?
WHAT?
Again I ask, why are you not printing money? With this ability you would be a billionaire in a few years with leverage.
Bonds are indeed complicated since you have the secondary bond market, however..
To turn a yield of 5.46% into 10% is complete fantasy land.
You would need a purchase price signifiantly below the face value of the bond.
The above is effective annual interest based on a 3 month bond paying out interest 4 times a year.
But let's look at effective yield from getting a discount bond.
The formula there is ( ( face value - purchase price ) / purchase price ) * 100
But the thing you're completely missing out here is what CAUSES a bond to trade below or above par on the secondary markets.
You can't just magically buy a 5.46% 3 month bill on the secondary market for half the face value.
It's based on the CURRENT INTEREST RATES.
The only way you can sell a bond for more than you paid for it is if interest rates drop.
Unless you think you can somehow borrow $400k and go to the secondary markets and buy a magic bond significantly below current bonds?
You really don't understand how bonds work.
You buy a bond. If interest goes up, the value of the bond decreases on the secondary market. If interest goes down, the value of your bond increases. Coupon rate stays the same, effective yield increases or decreases.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/below-par.asp
Again. READY, STUDY, LEARN.
Bonds trade below par because interest rates change primarily.
You cannot just magically a 5.46% yield into a 10% yield.
And wonderful, interactive brokers has a lower margin rate. It's still 6.830% for IBKR pro. 5.830% for over $200 million.
Here's some reading on why you can't do this.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=123645
As someone here states
"It doesn't usually make sense to borrow money from A in order to lend it to B, which is what happens when you buy bonds on margin; if you could do this profitably, A would lend to B directly and cut out you as the middleman. (You may make a net profit by mismatching risks; if you borrow at short-term rates to buy long-term bonds, you could make a profit on the interest but would be taking more risk than just by selling short-term bonds.)"
As another states :-
"It is hard to find low risk bonds that pay more then your margin rate."
You certainly can't get US gov bonds that pay more than your margin rate. lol. 10%. lololol. The world's markets would crash if you could suddenly get 10% from bonds while borrowing at rates under 10%. Everyone would borrow, no one would lend. It just would never work. How can you not see this? Why would anyone offer you margin at a rate below what they can get from the US gov? The US gov is a safer bet than you.
Here again on reddit -
The sheer stupidity of this is mind boggling. What on earth have you been reading? Or have you been watching some movie?
As one person on reddit states, "Margin rates will always be higher than UST. No one is going to lend you money to gamble for less than they could get guaranteed from the government..."
Another
"You'd be gambling that you know what future interest rates will be better than the rest of the market. If you're correct, sure you win, but you're probably not correct. Plus, margin rates are always a little higher than the short term rate, so you'd have to be correct by more than that difference."
Again, the only way to do this is by betting that you have secret knowledge about future interest rates.
This works if you can borrow $100 million to buy $100 million of bonds that currently have a yield of let's say 5% for simplicity. You're betting that interest rates are going to go DOWN. Which means if the interest rates drop to 2.5%, your face value of $100 million for your bonds is suddenly going to be able to trade on the secondary markets for a value ABOVE $100 million, because current bonds have a coupon of 2.5%, yet yours has a coupon of 5%, so it's almost twice as valuable.
THIS is how you'd make money trading bonds on margin.
You can't magically turn a 5% into a 10% EAR, you would be betting on interest rates going down and the value of your bonds on the secondary markets going up.
This is all just so pointless though. You don't understand this. You've never traded bonds on margin in your life, because, it's an ultra risky and difficult way to make returns without having secret knowledge about future interest rates the rest of the market doesn't have.
Margin accounts are BORROWING.
A bond is BORROWING.
You borrow from A, and lend to B.
This is arbitrage. You are effectively telling me you can arbitrage in the open markets an arbitrage rate of 5%. That's NUTS.
No one would invest in the stockmarket if they could just make infinite 10% returns on bonds. Everyone would just buy bonds, but if everyone bought bonds, there wouldn't be enough bonds. And if everyone borrowed to buy bonds, you need another "everyone" lending to "everyone" to buy said bonds.
Ahh, another insult.
And yet ANOTHER insult. Good job. Very well done.
Now, go and get rich with your infinite 10% bonds on margin.
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gurujeeseo
Registered Member
- Oct 27, 2023
- 99
- 28
I would consider it when its up 70k
rankvisible
Regular Member
- Sep 9, 2023
- 233
- 79
There are rumors that it will skyrocket
BigPollock
Regular Member
- Aug 20, 2023
- 291
- 83
its going back to 6k this christmasFor those of us who are old: I remember the bull run of 2017 christmas. BTC went from 6K USD to 20K USD in 2 months. Remember, history repeats.
- Aug 19, 2023
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Considering recent trends of crypto adoption in many countries, I don't see it slowing down in the near future.
- Oct 11, 2013
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I am fine either way. Low price, buy more. High price, just hodl.
OccultKingdoms
BANNED
- Mar 11, 2013
- 5,542
- 9,750
I'll consider 10% bonds on margin instead.