Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by Sophie, Apr 27, 2010.
Waterfield is Gordon Gekko.. either that or a cnbc junkie lol
Interesting discussion guys.
Really learnt a lot. Keep it going.
Started trading early 2008. Profitably from late 2008
All my posts aren't 100%, for example, the indian currency...
You have to judge whether there's inflation/deflation in the cross rates, then see what's happening with their economy. Yada yada yada.
I haven't slept in 24 hours and I've got an economics (uni) test in 4 hours!
I do agree with some of your posts, for example I highly doubt that all the governments around the world judged their lending and bailout programs exactly so that they have balanced a low inflation rate.
I think there might be a depression, just for speculative lulz.
Invest in the right things in life like me, and you will be worry free.
You see those bells, my money can't go nowhere without me hearing.
Check out my cashcow.
Welcome to the wonderful world of fiat currencies! Please remain seated and enjoy the ride.
I remember when I first started IM and the Canadian exchange rate was 1.60$ for every 1$ US Ahhh the good times
Waterfield, the chinese don't need to do anything to their own currency to crash the U.S. All they have to do is make a few trade trips to other countries to buy there stuff, then call in their huge I.O.U. from uncle sam and its over. Even OPEC hold a hammer - just have to change the valuation of oil from dollars to euros and that can be done in like 1 minute.
Either of those things happens and the U.S. probably goes to war. More than simple economics from a textbook at play there.
Mate, I just said.
20% of the exports of China go to the U S A. Over 10% of their GDP is from exports.
Now, what they could do is start consuming their own goods. However, since the Americans are paying such good prices, they export them over there.
They need the US to be importers of their goods. It's a two ended deal, China gets high GDP, America gets cheap goods.
I don't see the point in crashing a currency the Chinese own do you? They gain nothing from it. Apart from if they wanted to try and get nations to adopt Yuan as the reserve currency...which is unlikely, and it's not even easily tradable.
Not going to argue any more, to tired and don't have enough references to make constructive comments . 3 hours ETA.
this was a cool discussion...but as was mentioned earlier...Americans are the largest consumers of everything on the planet...we live a life of irrational exuberance...unlike a person living check to check...governments dont need all their money in one lump sum...they can afford to space it out over time and that is why they love the U.S....we are a debt loving country...so as long as China has those interest payments coming in and still can make money on the export trade...why rock the boat?...they are kinda frugal anyway so all that cash is just going in the stash...now they can ensure future generations of Chinese will be able to eat cuz they are guaranteed a check from the big fat greedy Americans...and no matter what the value of the American dollar is...it still can buy some pretty awesome shit that most of the time is only available in America...its not really the money thats important...its the shit money can buy...if u could just live rent/mortgage free...eat...dress and drive for free...would u really need money??...the illusion of the American Dream is priceless...lol
This country will hit rock bottom 300% prepare for it. The guys that run the world did the same thing with Russia in 1990s, that's why all Russians are worried, have you ever heard a phrase history repeats it self. I'm personally ready to jump on a plane any day and GTFO. If you have lots of dollars - GET RID OF THEM they will be worthless paper, worthless digital numbers.
The US currency sucks. When I came to Japan 3 years ago, it was 120yen = $1. Now, it's like 90yen = $1... that means everything got 25% more expensive (not even to mention normal yearly inflation on prices)! Can you believe that?
The US economy's future is looking very bleak. Of course, US news will never admit this. In Japan a few weeks ago, I was watching a program on China and it says that China is now on line to become the #1 economy in the world within 10-15 years.
I saw someone in this thread earlier saying we are safe because China can ensure that future generations will live happily off of the fat American's dollar. Are you fucking kidding me? China is going to be the #1 economy and America is going to drop off big time. Once China is #1, do you really think the rest of the world is going to continue to obey the ridiculous economic policies of the US? More importantly, when China is the #1 economy, do you really think that they are going to need America? Especially when the American economy drops down to the #4 or #5 spots?
The American "empire" is now in decline. 100 years ago England was on top and I bet English people were talking about how great their economy was and how it was going to last forever. Now look at England, still respected but not nearly carrying any of the weight it had 100 years ago. Likewise, America is on top and all of its citizens are thinking that it's going to carry on... unfortunately, America will become like England; respected but not carrying nearly the weight it once had.
The US $ compared to the AU $ is neck in neck. A year ago it was $1US to 1.35AU. If the AU $ does become stronger it will mean that it will be even more expensive to live here than ever before. Its not expensive enough, but then we will see it get even more expensive if the US dollar gets weaker.
I think im moving to NZ. Living in AU sucks. I cant believe i paid almost $13 for a baked chicken for dinner. WTF! Are these people mad?
Only think AU has right now is the export of mineral and nothing more. What a country!
I'm concerned but I don't know that there's much I can actually do about it since I'm living in the states. So far I don't see any reason for mass panic and leaving the country.
I am, however, very much open to diversifying my investments abroad. This doesn't seem to be a particularly easy thing to do though...
That's to do with JPY deflation and JPY strengthening more than USD weakness.
AUD strengthened partially due to the carry trade, search the forum for the thread AUD USD.
Disregard dollars, acquire euros.
I also maintain that if the U.S. economy does really tank, I mean really tank, there will be anarchy in the streets of that country and probably dozens more, thats why owning a little self sufficient acreage somewhere is a good investment. Montana!!
And Portugal just got downgraded...
hmm, suppose to be worried. Well, not that much. i mean i make money through my work in Canada (Not BH or WH). when i used to send money to my parents i was down as Canadian dollar was way down to USA. now i m getting pretty good returns. so can not complain in that sense.
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