Adwords keyword tool question

I am completely new to ppc and have never done it before.

So, i'm thinking about promoting a site with a keyword that gets 16 million searches a month, so i went to the traffic estimator and with a cpc of $.02 it says i can get about 200 clicks. How accurate do you think this estimate is? Is the adword traffic estimator usually pretty accurate?

-thanks for your time

The adwords keyword estimator is 70% accurate in my experience. If the keyword is seasonal, then it's hard to estimate it with keyword tool. You may compare this with semrush for better results.

Refjaf55,

The keyword tool can be used for guidance but I would be careful using it. There is evidence that it can be misleading based on whether you are logged in or out of a google account and how you search for terms (i.e. exact match, broad match, etc).

Check out this post on SEOMoz about the subject,

http://www.seomoz.org/blog/be-careful-using-adwords-for-keyword-research

Hope that helps you,

Shawn