- Aug 21, 2023
- 4,118
- 1,705
Day 233 Update
Today was more interesting than I expected.
Yesterday was about recovery after the first real slowdown in a while. Today was about seeing whether the changes actually hold when the system gets back to normal volume.
The good news is that the numbers recovered again.
But I also noticed something more important: the recent dip changed the way I'm looking at the business.
Revenue
* Total: $8,846
* Subscriptions: $1,853
* PPV: $5,573
* Tips: $1,420
Subscribers
* New subs: 553
* Rebill rate: ~95%
Traffic Sources
* Instagram: ~13%
* Reddit: ~68%
* TikTok: ~13%
* Other: ~6%
Content Posted
* IG Reels: 4
* TikToks: 3
* Reddit posts: 50
* IG Stories: 64
Operations
Chatter handled most conversations.
I spent most of today comparing the last few days instead of looking at today's numbers in isolation.
I wanted to see what actually changed during the slowdown, what recovered naturally, and what still looks weak.
That was probably more useful than trying to squeeze another few hundred dollars out of the day.
Observations
Biggest takeaway today:
Recovery tells you more than growth does.
When you're growing every day, it's easy to think every improvement is working.
You change something.
Revenue goes up.
You assume the change caused it.
But there are too many variables moving at the same time.
A slowdown gives you a different perspective.
You can actually see which parts of the business remain strong when conditions aren't perfect.
And that showed me that the underlying system is healthier than I thought.
Another thing I noticed:
The best metric isn't today's revenue. It's how quickly you recover from a bad day.
We went from $8k+ days to a noticeable drop.
Then recovered.
Not by doubling activity.
Not by throwing a completely new strategy at the problem.
Mostly by fixing small leaks and letting the existing system work.
That's a much better sign to me than simply hitting another record.
On the monetization side:
Repeat buyers were the biggest stabilizer.
New traffic was softer than during the strongest days, but existing buyers continued spending.
That made the revenue drop much less severe than it could have been.
This is exactly why I've become so focused on retention.
Acquisition gets you volume.
Retention gives you stability.
You need both, but they solve very different problems.
Reddit is still the biggest source of buyers, although I'm deliberately watching the percentage now.
The goal isn't to make Reddit smaller.
The goal is to make everything else bigger.
That's an important difference.
If Reddit produces great traffic, I'm going to keep using it.
I just don't want the entire business to depend on one platform behaving perfectly every day.
Instagram is starting to get more attention because of that.
Not chasing random viral numbers.
I'm looking specifically at whether content creates:
* Profile visits
* Quality traffic
* Paid subscribers
* Repeat buyers
A reel with 200k views and no buyers isn't more valuable to me than a smaller post that actually produces revenue.
TikTok is being evaluated the same way.
Traffic quality matters more than traffic volume.
That's probably one of the biggest lessons from the last month.
Another interesting realization:
Crisis management is mostly about staying calm.
When revenue drops, the temptation is to do something immediately.
Anything.
Change the offer.
Change the content.
Increase posting.
Increase messaging.
Try another platform.
Add another tool.
That creates even more variables.
Sometimes the best decision is to do less and watch what happens.
The recent slowdown reminded me of that.
I'm also changing how I think about risk.
Before, I mostly looked at risk as:
"Could this account get banned?"
Now I'm looking at it more broadly.
What happens if:
* Reddit traffic drops 30%
* A model has less content for a week
* A chatter becomes unavailable
* PPV conversion drops
* A traffic source stops working
* Buyer retention weakens
A strong business should have an answer for all of those situations.
Not necessarily a perfect answer.
Just an answer.
That's the difference between a system and a lucky streak.
Another thing I'm working on is keeping the team from reacting emotionally to daily numbers.
If today is great, don't suddenly assume everything needs to be scaled.
If today is bad, don't assume everything is broken.
The job is to look at the trend and understand what changed.
New Focus / Tests
* Keep improving traffic diversification
* Measure IG and TikTok by revenue quality, not views
* Strengthen repeat buyer retention
* Continue fixing small operational leaks
* Track weekly recovery and stability
* Keep Reddit strong without increasing dependency
* Build contingency plans for the biggest operational risks
The last few days actually changed my perspective quite a bit.
Before the slowdown, I was mostly thinking about how to get from $8k to $10k.
Now I'm thinking more about how to make $8k sustainable even when things go wrong.
That's a much harder problem.
But probably a much more important one.
The goal isn't to have a business that looks impressive on its best day.
The goal is to have one that still works on its worst day.
Today was more interesting than I expected.
Yesterday was about recovery after the first real slowdown in a while. Today was about seeing whether the changes actually hold when the system gets back to normal volume.
The good news is that the numbers recovered again.
But I also noticed something more important: the recent dip changed the way I'm looking at the business.
Revenue
* Total: $8,846
* Subscriptions: $1,853
* PPV: $5,573
* Tips: $1,420
Subscribers
* New subs: 553
* Rebill rate: ~95%
Traffic Sources
* Instagram: ~13%
* Reddit: ~68%
* TikTok: ~13%
* Other: ~6%
Content Posted
* IG Reels: 4
* TikToks: 3
* Reddit posts: 50
* IG Stories: 64
Operations
Chatter handled most conversations.
I spent most of today comparing the last few days instead of looking at today's numbers in isolation.
I wanted to see what actually changed during the slowdown, what recovered naturally, and what still looks weak.
That was probably more useful than trying to squeeze another few hundred dollars out of the day.
Observations
Biggest takeaway today:
Recovery tells you more than growth does.
When you're growing every day, it's easy to think every improvement is working.
You change something.
Revenue goes up.
You assume the change caused it.
But there are too many variables moving at the same time.
A slowdown gives you a different perspective.
You can actually see which parts of the business remain strong when conditions aren't perfect.
And that showed me that the underlying system is healthier than I thought.
Another thing I noticed:
The best metric isn't today's revenue. It's how quickly you recover from a bad day.
We went from $8k+ days to a noticeable drop.
Then recovered.
Not by doubling activity.
Not by throwing a completely new strategy at the problem.
Mostly by fixing small leaks and letting the existing system work.
That's a much better sign to me than simply hitting another record.
On the monetization side:
Repeat buyers were the biggest stabilizer.
New traffic was softer than during the strongest days, but existing buyers continued spending.
That made the revenue drop much less severe than it could have been.
This is exactly why I've become so focused on retention.
Acquisition gets you volume.
Retention gives you stability.
You need both, but they solve very different problems.
Reddit is still the biggest source of buyers, although I'm deliberately watching the percentage now.
The goal isn't to make Reddit smaller.
The goal is to make everything else bigger.
That's an important difference.
If Reddit produces great traffic, I'm going to keep using it.
I just don't want the entire business to depend on one platform behaving perfectly every day.
Instagram is starting to get more attention because of that.
Not chasing random viral numbers.
I'm looking specifically at whether content creates:
* Profile visits
* Quality traffic
* Paid subscribers
* Repeat buyers
A reel with 200k views and no buyers isn't more valuable to me than a smaller post that actually produces revenue.
TikTok is being evaluated the same way.
Traffic quality matters more than traffic volume.
That's probably one of the biggest lessons from the last month.
Another interesting realization:
Crisis management is mostly about staying calm.
When revenue drops, the temptation is to do something immediately.
Anything.
Change the offer.
Change the content.
Increase posting.
Increase messaging.
Try another platform.
Add another tool.
That creates even more variables.
Sometimes the best decision is to do less and watch what happens.
The recent slowdown reminded me of that.
I'm also changing how I think about risk.
Before, I mostly looked at risk as:
"Could this account get banned?"
Now I'm looking at it more broadly.
What happens if:
* Reddit traffic drops 30%
* A model has less content for a week
* A chatter becomes unavailable
* PPV conversion drops
* A traffic source stops working
* Buyer retention weakens
A strong business should have an answer for all of those situations.
Not necessarily a perfect answer.
Just an answer.
That's the difference between a system and a lucky streak.
Another thing I'm working on is keeping the team from reacting emotionally to daily numbers.
If today is great, don't suddenly assume everything needs to be scaled.
If today is bad, don't assume everything is broken.
The job is to look at the trend and understand what changed.
New Focus / Tests
* Keep improving traffic diversification
* Measure IG and TikTok by revenue quality, not views
* Strengthen repeat buyer retention
* Continue fixing small operational leaks
* Track weekly recovery and stability
* Keep Reddit strong without increasing dependency
* Build contingency plans for the biggest operational risks
The last few days actually changed my perspective quite a bit.
Before the slowdown, I was mostly thinking about how to get from $8k to $10k.
Now I'm thinking more about how to make $8k sustainable even when things go wrong.
That's a much harder problem.
But probably a much more important one.
The goal isn't to have a business that looks impressive on its best day.
The goal is to have one that still works on its worst day.