On BTC, the assumption of moving money freely in China is flawed. If you are from China, you will know that there is underground money agent who could move your money out cheaply and fast.
If I want to move the money out, I can easily work with an export Company and purchase products from my offshore Company based in Hong Kong. Since offshore Company is tax free, I am literally moving money out of China easily using the existing banking system legally. To avoid legal trail, I could setup multiple trust Companies to own shares of this Hong Kong Company under different jurisdiction (aka a spider web) to make things even complicated for authorities. And then shut down all the Companies once I cash out. By the time authorities in China got winds of this and go through all the layer of protocol to check financial checks, it will take more than 10 years. I would then be already (assuming I am a runner for some rich guy who want to move money out of China) migrated to Canada or some other countries enjoying my whisky and retired.
For the layman in China, they just need to use their debit cards that are approved for oversea purchase and buy things from there. Example, payment to web developer. Funds are out of the country legally. Alternatively just use a money agent and funds are out of the country easily. If not, I can just purchase a rolex watch, wear it and cross over to Hong Kong and exchange for cash on the spot over at watch dealer in Hong Kong. Simple.
BTC in generally seems to be easier but the hidden cost behind can be staggering since there is no actual market market to determine fair value of the currency( crypto). Example, if I were to purchase $400 of BTCs, some sellers will charge a 20% fees. Look there is no coinbase in China and officially BTC is illegal thus seller will also push up the price to factor in their profits as well as the fluctuation of BTC which can be crazy at times. If I am from China, which option do you think I will choose?
Therefore the assumption that China demands alot of BTC can be flawed if the focus is to move money out easily since there are cheaper and better alternatives.
Next, taxes. Well, I would say that businesses in China WANTS TO PAY taxes. Are you aware that avoiding taxes can be death sentence in China? As their Government is clamping down on corruption therefore you cannot pay your way out of problems. Paying taxes is like protection money to the authorities, most if not all will be dying to pay this as they do not want to tagged with death sentence.
I am not saying that BTC will drop in value since the above assumption does not hold true.
The reason why BTC could still hold in value and even appreciates is primary due to the market maker behind it. If you notice most supplies of BTC is controlled by a few big players. Thus if they do not reduce their inventories, prices will not fall due to limited supplies of BTC in the market. This is a perfect Monopoly environment whereby the big players can control and influence the profitability by limiting the supplies. A good case reference is how crude oils prices are being played around the world. The same method and model is being applied to BTC. Occasionally these market players will slowly sell off their holdings whenever market demands pick up and pricing goes higher. These players operate like the oil cartel. Whereby they will determine how much supplies to liquidate on the market. And creates market panic incident so that they can buy back cheaply. Case reference, stock markets. I am not quoting forex market here as it is almost impossible to manipulate the forex market due to the trillions of dollars invovled and active government intervention and currency war between Countries.
Whether the Government bans BTC is not a big factor for these players since they are holding bulk of the BTCs. The greater fool theory applies here. As long as there are ready buyers to purchase BTC at a premium, they will make money. Needless to say, some of you will point out that BTC on its own does not deliver interest payment. I will say that this is a fact. However like Gold and crude oil, the majority of the supplies is controlled by a few players only. With the adoption of more users on BTC, the value of BTC would certainly go up but always be on the look out as the market maker would dump their supplies to create panic selling to buy back on the ccheap and liquidate for profits.
Some of you guys might argue, then how about other cryptocurrency? Why isn't there any market makers available on them? Well, some do have market maker like Etherium which explains why the coin appreciates in value. All those so call good unique factors of a new cryptocurrencies are just wall street style marketing gimmicks to get buyers. The primary fact is that there is market maker. Why BTC? Remember, the ultimate fact is that BTC is the first (second I think as the first was created by owner of Ripple which turns out to be a failure due to no market maker) cryptocurrency and widely used by underground illegal activities. It is still being used currently despite authorities clamping down in this aspect. A good example,why USD is the world currency. It has a big economy of demand, in fact the only consumption based economy in the world. The whole world lends to USA for them to buy their supplies. BTC is very similar to USD in the aspect that is not backed by any physical commodities of value. (USD dropped gold peg). However the primary users trust and believe in it thus the values appreciates.
In conclusion, if you are not into cryptocurrency, don't jump in blindly. Remember that you can get burn if you jump in at the wrong timing. A good guide is to purchase whenever there is a 20% drop in the highest price of BTC. Use a dollar cost averaging tactic. So purchase whenever there is a drop and sell whenever the market recovers by every 20% to lock down your profits.
Example, buy $400 (high was $500), sell at $480 (profit $80). Price appreciates further to $600 (sharks I miss the boat, DON"T feel this way) then drop to $480 (buy) then sell at $576. This method works greatly for market indices, currencies and BTC. In fact, products that are very liquid. Meaning there are market maker and demands of it.
I am sure some will claim that this technique don't work, but there is no need for me to debate nor argue as one fact that we all have to agree is that there is nothing wrong with taking profits.
Much apology that I side track abit on the above, the focus should be primary on BTC discussion.