Buying Adsense site - how to define the max RPM?

[Netvertiser]

So you find a site you want to buy. It is pushing Adsense. You have their current Adsense RPM. And you have no idea is it undermonetized or not because you don't work in that niche. So, how would you calculate the Adsense RPM for a site in a certain niche?

Would you go to semrush, use the Position & Volume to determine how much traffic it is getting for each keyword and then use the CPC for each keyword to calculate the RPM. You'd have to guess the adsense CTR tho. Or is there any other way you could do it?

 

[kvmcable]

You could do a lot of research and number crunching but at the end of the day you don't know that Google will serve up ads with high CPC on that website. Google has an algorithm for ad serviing, just because you rank for a kw phrase, have traffic for that phrase, doesn't mean Google will give you the correct ads for optimal conversion.

When analyzing sites for revenue and traffic you go with current and past numbers and not speculation of future numbers. If you can improve the site down the road, that is payoff for your new work and shouldn't be considered in the ROI of the initial investment.

Adsense sites are high risk websites and acquisition of those should consider that risk as well. Another Adsense consideration is just because a website generates a level of revenue for the current Adsense publisher doesn't guarantee when the publisher code is changed, it will create the same revenue. Part of the Google Adsense algorithm includes publisher analysis (performance, history, etc).

 

[burnett4congress]

You could do a lot of research and number crunching but at the end of the day you don't know that Google will serve up ads with high CPC on that website. Google has an algorithm for ad serviing, just because you rank for a kw phrase, have traffic for that phrase, doesn't mean Google will give you the correct ads for optimal conversion.

When analyzing sites for revenue and traffic you go with current and past numbers and not speculation of future numbers. If you can improve the site down the road, that is payoff for your new work and shouldn't be considered in the ROI of the initial investment.

Adsense sites are high risk websites and acquisition of those should consider that risk as well. Another Adsense consideration is just because a website generates a level of revenue for the current Adsense publisher doesn't guarantee when the publisher code is changed, it will create the same revenue. Part of the Google Adsense algorithm includes publisher analysis (performance, history, etc).

Excellent advice.

In addition, Google is trying to tailor ads more to the individual user. So when you go to a hair care site and see ads for buying your own MMA fighting octagon (actually happened to me), that's why. This can dramatically alter your RPM.

Typically, I discount the ROI by about half and figure that 1/3 of the sites I buy will flop before I get my money back.