BitCoin and Cryptocurrencies - Will they fail? My 3 Predictions!

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

Its hard to say whether the value reflects its actual cost at the moment. There are two factors that constitute its intrinsic value:

1. Mining electricity costs. This is the same as with gold. Gold cannot worth less than the mining costs. Otherwise the mining will stop, leading to deficit of gold on the market, which in turn will set the prices higher. The electricity costs are high at the moment, and some people moving to Indonesia in order to mine, as electricity costs there are much lower.

2. Bitcoins per capita. Say there are total of 1000 bitcoins, and only 2 people use it. It makes 500 bitcoins per capita on average. Suddenly Bitcoin gets a media exposure and 998 new users buy 1 bitcoin each. Now there is 1 bitcoin per capita on average. The prices go up, because having only 1 bitcoin in a pocket makes it seem as a much more valuable/rare asset.

IMHO the prices are higher than they are supposed to be, but its really hard to say whether it is really or only slightly overpriced.

In my opinion the value is being fuelled by speculation.
If you look at the charts there was natural growth until Jan of this year, now gains are rising due to people seeing BitCoin as an investment opportunity.


[h=2]Who's making money from Bitcoin?[/h] People who bought early and sold at the peak. The currency has been through two boom-and-bust cycles, with the cost of one Bitcoin rising from $2 to $30 in 2011, and then from $13 to $266 earlier this year. But having a fortune in Bitcoin is a bit like having a fortune in gold: you have to sell your holdings to really make the most of it.


[h=2]Will it ever be a mainstream currency?[/h] Economists and developers point to several flaws in the implementation of Bitcoin which render it unsuitable for widespread use. One problem is that the currency has deflation built in to its very core: only 21m bitcoins will ever be produced, and we're already halfway there. Most economists believe deflation is disastrous for an economy, but the Austrian school of economics, beloved by the libertarian creators of Bitcoin, disagrees.
A more immediate problem is that it's not clear that the backbone of the currency can withstand the increased use that going mainstream would take. Transactions can already experience relatively lengthy delays in processing (taking minutes to clear), and that's just with Bitcoin remaining mostly popular amongst enthusiasts.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/04/bitcoin-what-you-need-to-know-silk-road

 

[zebrahat]

The value of Bitcoin is in its utility as an independent, private, decentralized currency. Those features are specifically in demand by the market, and will be in increased demand in the face of government or banking system attempts to stamp out any independent, private, decentralized currency.

The consistent demand for those features = its value, so that value can't be extinguished by artificial attempts to manipulate it. That's why it bounces back, like a boxing dummy, from all institutional attempts to deflate it or 'pop' it, from Mt. Gox attacks to Silkroad shutdowns, or investor hyper-speculation. This situation will accelerate as traditional currencies DO stumble under artificial market manipulation, or as more governments outright steal people's funds, as seen earlier this year in Cyprus and elsewhere.

 

[Nigel Farage]

There is so much FUD and misinformation in this thread..

Jazzc makes good points

Money and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) are two sides of the same coin. You can't have one without the other. Currency is the collective's attempt at removing all FUD and engaging in commerce with something durable, that you can feel safe with, feel certain of, and have faith in. Note these 3 qualities are the opposites of FUD. Nothing wrong with FUD. One man's FUD is another man's financial opportunity or financial disaster, depending on how things work out. This is a marketing forum, and the people here really ought to have a working understanding of the fluid and dynamic nature of a Market.

Some people are talking like BitCoin is Magic. It is just another vehicle being manipulated by speculators.

You have some magical thinking yourself. Somehow, BitCoin is "magically" doomed to failure. You don't know how, you don't know when and you don't know why, and yet you are certain that it's going to fail. That's magic. TA-DA!!!!

The thing is, I don't think the market is sustainable.
The people NOW investing in BitCoin are NOT interested in BitCoin, they are only interested in its current $ value.

What currency doesn't fluctuate? You seem to be offended by the notion that a currency of a market might also have it's own market. These markets always stabilize as a result of natural market forces. The most destabilizing influence on a market it government, as only a government can force people to do things that are not in their own best interests. If anything is safe, certain and you can have faith in, it is that collectively people will always do what is in their own best interests.

[video=youtube_share;YZIFWsRMEDA]http://youtu.be/YZIFWsRMEDA[/video]

The value of Bitcoin is in its utility as an independent, private, decentralized currency. Those features are specifically in demand by the market, and will be in increased demand in the face of government or banking system attempts to stamp out any independent, private, decentralized currency.

The consistent demand for those features = its value, so that value can't be extinguished by artificial attempts to manipulate it. That's why it bounces back, like a boxing dummy, from all institutional attempts to deflate it or 'pop' it, from Mt. Gox attacks to Silkroad shutdowns, or investor hyper-speculation. This situation will accelerate as traditional currencies DO stumble under artificial market manipulation, or as more governments outright steal people's funds, as seen earlier this year in Cyprus and elsewhere.

This is me & Zebra saying the exact same thing.

W130SN, you have stubborn remnants of leftist indoctrination still clinging to the unused and unscrutinized crevices and cavities of your cranium. That's why things frequently don't make sense, and you occasionally discover that you simultaneously believe in to mutually exclusive truths. And, in contrast to what the leftists have programmed you to believe, "compromise" is not your solution as that synthesized result will ultimately require yet even more "compromise" until eventually you will compromise your common sense to the point that you become a full-fledged leftist.

I urge you to re-examine these dark & diseased areas of your brain and rid yourself of these toxic stands of leftist cancer before they take over your whole body, and you become yet another mindless, shambling zombie, staggering forever seeking living human flesh in order to satisfy your undead craving for the taste of human BRAINS.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

The value of Bitcoin is in its utility as an independent, private, decentralized currency. Those features are specifically in demand by the market, and will be in increased demand in the face of government or banking system attempts to stamp out any independent, private, decentralized currency.

The consistent demand for those features = its value, so that value can't be extinguished by artificial attempts to manipulate it. That's why it bounces back, like a boxing dummy, from all institutional attempts to deflate it or 'pop' it, from Mt. Gox attacks to Silkroad shutdowns, or investor hyper-speculation. This situation will accelerate as traditional currencies DO stumble under artificial market manipulation, or as more governments outright steal people's funds, as seen earlier this year in Cyprus and elsewhere.

This is the reason I want BitCoin to work. I consider myself a liberal libertarian.
But just because something is a good idea and the people want it, doesn't mean it will succeed.

If anything, history shows us that Government will do it's best to crush it.
As I stated previously the US Government own the majority of BitCoins now.
Obviously they can't do anything with them until the trial of Ross Ulbricht ends and he is found guilty.

The majority of people now getting into BitCoin aren't even mining it.
They are buying it which is pushing the price up artificially. It was never designed for that.
When enough people are interested in a cryptocurrency, then one may stand a chance but currently people are only concerned with what their BitCoin is worth in $

Although I am a libertarian, I am also a realist.

I think we are 2 to 3 cryptocurrencies away from one taking hold and becoming mainstream.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

You have some magical thinking yourself. Somehow, BitCoin is "magically" doomed to failure. You don't know how, you don't know when and you don't know why, and yet you are certain that it's going to fail. That's magic. TA-DA!!!!

What if I told you I did know how, I did know when and I did know why?

When has the first of anything NEW succeeded? It is always a long hard drawn out process and it is usually the 2nd or 3rd attempt that actually gains ground.

When has a good idea succeed just because it is a good idea? Somebody usually takes the idea and bastardizes it before it takes off.



But I thank you for the input, it is always welcome.

 

[Nigel Farage]

When has the first of anything NEW succeeded?

Blow-jobs. The very 1st blow-job in the history of humanity was a success, and it's only gotten better ever since. In fact, most historians agree that there has never been a recorded instance of a bad one, ever.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

When will the people who called Bitcoin a bubble admit they were wrong?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...alled-bitcoin-a-bubble-admit-they-were-wrong/



The Bitcoin Bubble

http://techcrunch.com/2013/11/06/the-bitcoin-bubble/



Bitcoin Is A Joke

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-is-a-currency-for-clowns-2013-11



Bitcoin Is Not Broken

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/06/bitcoin-is-not-broken/

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

Blow-jobs. The very 1st blow-job in the history of humanity was a success, and it's only gotten better ever since. In fact, most historians agree that there has never been a recorded instance of a bad one, ever.

This, I will have to agree with.

 

[bananaman5000]

One of the primary problem I see in BitCoins is its ability to be "created" by individuals, with enough computing power and skill.
Money can't be "created"

This is true, printing money is just taxing it in a more subtle way. However since computing power and skill are involved, bitcoin itself isn't being created out of thin air. It takes machine power and skill to mine gold, even though gold is useless, and people still use it at currency.

 

[lancis]

If anything, history shows us that Government will do it's best to crush it.
As I stated previously the US Government own the majority of BitCoins now.

IMHO the US government haven't realized yet how much of a harm they did to themselves by confiscating that wallet.
Unlike with the confiscated fiat currency, the transactions are public. Once they attempt to spend the currency people will track down the transactions and the next day it will hit all the major news. Same will happen if they attempt to use it to harm the market in any way.

They are pretty much stuck with that wallet, with no easy way out.

 

[apiya]

The OP act like him know everything about bitcoin, but his knowledge is very low

I'm into bitcoin since 2011. i own some bitcoin, You pretend to be here at the start of bitcoin and support it, why don't you buy some ?
You are wrong in most aspects of what bitcoin is and why the price is high.

Anyway, people who are IN, know. And we are happy their is some fear about this money, because the price is still low, and we can invest in.

Bitcoin is not growing to fast, it's just the start, next year it will be at 1k$.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

IMHO the US government haven't realized yet how much of a harm they did to themselves by confiscating that wallet.
Unlike with the confiscated fiat currency, the transactions are public. Once they attempt to spend the currency people will track down the transactions and the next day it will hit all the major news. Same will happen if they attempt to use it to harm the market in any way.

They are pretty much stuck with that wallet, with no easy way out.

That is true to an extent but all they will do is hide it. It will be sold/transferred to numerous dummy corporations run by the NSA or CIA which will show a profit on the books but will then be released in small batches to maximise the return OR used flood the market.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

The OP act like him know everything about bitcoin, but his knowledge is very low

I'm into bitcoin since 2011. i own some bitcoin, You pretend to be here at the start of bitcoin and support it, why don't you buy some ?
You are wrong in most aspects of what bitcoin is and why the price is high.

Anyway, people who are IN, know. And we are happy their is some fear about this money, because the price is still low, and we can invest in.

Bitcoin is not growing to fast, it's just the start, next year it will be at 1k$.

I have Coin already mined but buying it is crazy.
I do support the idea but it is a bubble and unless things stabilise, a crash WILL come.

If people analyse markets they should see this.

When we talk of sheeple, the BitCoin Brigade is a classic example. Because they are so desperate for it to work they are blind to the fact it can and WILL fail.

The only argument I am getting is that BitCoin is a good idea and that is why it will succeed.

A good idea is never enough, no matter how noble it is.

You state that BitCoin is low and you invest in it.
You don't check how much BitCoin you have, you check what it's monetary value against the dollar is.
BitCoin was designed as a currency to be traded or exchanged for goods/services.
It was meant to flow as a currency but people are hoarding it as they expect the price/value to rise.
The investors and speculators are the ones who will cause the crash.

If BitCoin had steadily increased in value over time then it would stand a chance but the massive gains are worrying and unnatural.

Lots of people are saying I am wrong, that is fine as I wanted a debate and I am playing Devils Advocate BUT nobody so far has given a convincing reason as to WHY I am wrong. The fact it is a good idea and the fact YOU want it to work doesn't sway me.

 

[apiya]

bitcoin is not about a "cool idea" or "noble idea" or whatever you want. it's a new Technology. As the email was for mail, and the mp3 was for music.
You can't stop it. So yes maybe govnerment will try to shut it down, but they will fail.

After if the price is high or low, and if it will crash, it's a another story, nobody know, and yes it will crash... One day. In one hour ? In one years ? Nobody knows aswell saying "it will crash" mean nothing.
Gold will crash
Euro will crash
Dollars will crash

When?...

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

bitcoin is not about a "cool idea" or "noble idea" or whatever you want. it's a new Technology. As the email was for mail, and the mp3 was for music.
You can't stop it. So yes maybe govnerment will try to shut it down, but they will fail.

After if the price is high or low, and if it will crash, it's a another story, nobody know, and yes it will crash... One day. In one hour ? In one years ? Nobody knows aswell saying "it will crash" mean nothing.
Gold will crash
Euro will crash
Dollars will crash

When?...

This might be the lamest response so far!

What was your last purchase with BitCoin?
I doubt you have even used it for what it was designed for.

It is supposed to be Internet Money but most of the transactions are people selling or buying on the exchanges.
The value is supposed to be in the BitCoin not on it's exchange rate.

When?... My prediction a minor fall in the next two weeks and 2 medium size rises before Christmas with a significant fall in the New Year. A major rise by April and serious fall by July. A total crash within 12-24 months. There, don't say I didn't warn you.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...o-record-on-wider-acceptance-china-trade.html

 

[jazzc]

One of the primary problem I see in BitCoins is its ability to be "created" by individuals, with enough computing power and skill.
Money can't be "created". A creation of money, by printing out money, is as always an option, but an option that will lead to total economic collapse, just look at what happens in Zimbabwe. While the government "can" make money, it's illegal for citizen to "create" money.

In BitCoins, every body can "create" money. As the number of people "creating" BitCoin grow, the value of BitCoin will surely drop, killing it.

How come everyone has an opinion about BTC without even know how the thing works. Granted it requires a bit of processing power between the ears to grasp it, but ffs, where does the need to display ignorance come from? You don't even know that BTC are limited to 21million by design.

Read: http://bitcoin.org/en/faq

 

[apiya]

yes i use it... i use only host and vpn who use bitcoin :

astrill
hydemyass
monstermegs
superbithost

and many others stuff of this kind, i stop using service who not accept bitcoin.

etc... i use it to send money worldwide aswell since i lived in many country. And now is stay in china good to send money to my friend in montreal or london. Do you know western union fee ? hahahaha

 

[jazzc]

It is FAR from mainstream. It is just reaching the awareness of the General Public now and the majority still don't actually understand OR comprehend it. How many miners are there? How many investors? How many BitCoin are currently out there?
The answers may surprise you. The market is tiny and the US government is now the largest single shareholder of BitCoin.

Mainstream as in the fact the every Dick & Harry has probably heard about it. People who had no idea that crypto-currencies existed, now know the term. Of course it 's not mainstream in terms of size.

Cyrptocurrencies are a fantastic idea but if the currency cannot be traded or converted into cash then it will become worthless.

Is the USD worthless if you can't trade it for Chinese Yuan? Is the Yuan worthless for Chinese who can't trade it for USD? What matters is the exchange value for services and goods. That's where the value of currency stems from.

If BitCoin fails then SOME people will be left with huge debt.

Debt?


This ^^ isn't possible with non-fiat currencies. That 's BitCoin 's strength.

BiCoin was designed to be an online digital currency, it wasn't designed to be an investment vehicle.

It was designed to be a currency. A currency can be used as an investment vehicle. Just like potatoes can be used for pan cakes. It 's irrelevant what you choose to do with it.

Speculators are now running the show. Many people are right now working on manipulating the market.
Smarter people than I and dare I say you, are working on trying to control the market.

There 's no such thing as market manipulation unless force is used to coerce the actors (what 's euphemistically called "regulation"). What you see is supply and demand. Nothing wrong with it.

Right after my Economics 101 class.

Probably

It wouldn't take 10000 years. Look up Moore's law, the computational power of a Computer purchased 10 years from now might do it.

Confucius said: "Understand first, conclude later"

Yes, maybe I do need a refresher but many encryption methods have been and continue to be broken. It is admirable that you have faith in cryptography but naive to consider any current encryption method in use unbreakable. There are unbreakable methods but these schemes are more difficult to implement than the best theoretically breakable but computationally secure mechanisms.

Try this one, it will help you understand: https://www.coursera.org/course/crypto (and part2 later: https://www.coursera.org/course/crypto2)

As I stated previously, this thread is only my opinion and predictions. It's purpose was for debate. I think it is working.

Yes, and I must admit you 're taking the beating with a sport attitude, so kudos

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

yes i use it... i use only host and vpn who use bitcoin :

astrill
hydemyass
monstermegs
superbithost

and many others stuff of this kind, i stop using service who not accept bitcoin.

etc... i use it to send money worldwide aswell since i lived in many country. And now is stay in china good to send money to my friend in montreal or london. Do you know western union fee ? hahahaha

Well I applaud you and I really am pleased because IF enough people follow suit and do this, THEN it has a chance.
But I fear that the majority are now hoarding.

 

[apiya]

If you are so sure about your prediction like you mean, please trade... and dont forget to report your great succes here.

I enjoy so much the only guy in earth who know everything.

"i think i will rise at 320 the 13 febuary, but will down little bit on 15th. And after a major drop at the end of april"

please...

Everybody is waiting for a little down... but no body know when it's will happens and if it's better to buy bitcoin now or waiting. Me i'm waiting since i bought enought bitcoin at 180 for my use... so all service like hosting i'm buying now are way cheaper for me.

But i'm not a trader, is just a good opportunity for me. I just believe in it, and i keep my "saving" bitcoin for at least 5 or 10years.