BitCoin and Cryptocurrencies - Will they fail? My 3 Predictions!

There is so much FUD and misinformation in this thread..

Jazzc makes good points
 
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partymarty4870 said:
who says wikipedia is the final installment?
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Who says Earth is the final installment? :-) Nothing is eternal, but open projects with large number of enthusiasts are much more effective cost/production/promotion-wise comparing to large corporate bodies. Therefore they tend to survive longer.
 
I love bitcoins because i 30x the original money i had invested and i think its core idea is great.

if bitcoin doesn't succeed then some other digital currency will take its place. only time will tell.
 
 
mdsurf said:
I love bitcoins because i 30x the original money i had invested and i think its core idea is great.

if bitcoin doesn't succeed then some other digital currency will take its place. only time will tell.
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True.(atm)Its calld Litcoin.
 
Here are my reasons why Bitcoin won't fail. I think from different perspectives and don't follow the herd mentality. But here are some reasons why I think bitcoin is here to stay.

There was a paper created in 1996 published by the NSA regarding cryptography and electronic cash. Its funny how insanely close this is to present day Bitcoin. The article is titled HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH Bitcoin uses SHA256 which was created by the NSA. This isn't a bad thing, the NSA uses SHA to encrypt their own material. In the future that SHA256 is cracked, Bitcoin protocol can be updated to use SHA512. If the government wanted to smash Bitcoin, it would have been done by now. They have so much money, and they could have easily bought or contracted companies to create powerful hardware to do a 51% attack.

People can say whatever they want, but Bitcoin is not anonymous. Its very much transparent. In my opinion, Bitcoin is being carefully ushering in a new world currency. Send money to an exchange, they will email you with the amount you deposited in the subject/metadata, send coins out, they will have all the information in the metadata, like who you sent the coins to and how much. Government loves transparency.

The argument that all bubbles burst does not qualify with Bitcoin. It's in its baby stages right now, at a tiny market cap of about 2.7 billion $. Bitcoin will have many internal bubbles, and many corrections in the future no doubt about it. But Bitcoin is one big bubble, there is nothing backing it and nothing needs to be backed by it because people trust the algorithm to make sure this won't happen
All bitcoins will can be mined in mere seconds.
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Even with a supercomputer, there is no way that all Bitcoins can be mined in a few seconds. You will get a much bigger portion of the pie compared to other miners, but the argument that all Bitcoins will be mined in seconds is complete misinformation.

The whole selfish mining FUD that came out today is complete bullshit. There is competition in mining and no doubt about that. Selfish mining is just competitive mining to get more coins. The blocks will still get confirmed regardless. Why would anyone report it rather than take advantage of it? People are greedy.. Thats like sharing a million dollar month method here publicly on BHW. If your playing in the mining game, be prepared for some competition with no disqualification.

Bitcoin is a useful financial technology in its early stages. Comparable to the internet in the 90's. Different protocols have been built, and it has evolved tremendously. Bitcoin is nowhere close to its peak, in fact its just hitting puberty so get ready for some growth spurts.
 
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You guy's do realise that the raid on Silk Road had NOTHING to do with the war on drugs, right?

Silk Road was raided for BitCoin.

The US can now cause a run on BitCoin anytime it wants by releasing them to the market.
They could easily crash the exchanges.

http://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX
http://pandodaily.com/2013/05/15/us-authorities-launch-their-first-attack-on-bitcoin/
http://rt.com/usa/bitcoin-fbi-seize-money-770/
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/10/fbi-bitcoin-address-2013102862850865999.html
http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/the-anatomy-of-a-bubble-charting-the-bitcoin-hype-machine
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24818975

The biggest Bitcoin exchange is now in China,http://www.businessinsider.com/nick-colas-on-bitcoins-second-surge-2013-11


Now that China has the largest BitCoin exchange, what do think will happen?
 
Now that China has the largest BitCoin exchange, what do think will happen?
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Thanks for the link, interesting read. What would happen? No one knows but I am sure there is another huge milestone for Bitcoins just around the corner
 
W130SN said:
The US can now cause a run on BitCoin anytime it wants by releasing them to the market.
They could easily crash the exchanges.
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Which they would never do. They auction off seized assets just like any other bust. The highest bidder wins. The feds aren't retarded, they wouldn't just crash the price dumping all at once because they would make way less money. The highest bidder (probably some multimillion dollar corporation which is buddies with the feds) will get the coins, and then its up to them what they want to do with it. At this point, the idea of all the silk road coins being flooded into the market crashing the price is a very slim chance. Crashing the price is a lose lose situation for everyone involved. Even if it does happen, whoever has money in the exchanges will be in for a treat, the price will go back to normal in no-time.

More than likely they will keep the coins as capital for their agency. Just like when they seize cash, they keep it. They only auction off physical assets like cars, houses, etc.
 
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Patel said:
Which they would never do. They auction off seized assets just like any other bust. The highest bidder wins. The feds aren't retarded, they wouldn't just crash the price dumping all at once because they would make way less money. The highest bidder (probably some multimillion dollar corporation which is buddies with the feds) will get the coins, and then its up to them what they want to do with it. At this point, the idea of all the silk road coins being flooded into the market crashing the price is a very slim chance. Crashing the price is a lose lose situation for everyone involved. Even if it does happen, whoever has money in the exchanges will be in for a treat, the price will go back to normal in no-time.

More than likely they will keep the coins as capital for their agency. Just like when they seize cash, they keep it. They only auction off physical assets like cars, houses, etc.
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This would be true IF it was about MONEY but it isn't, it is about CONTROL.
Speculators are fuelling BitCoin but the Market is still tiny.
The Feds are the biggest single holders of BitCoin now.

http://www.firstpost.com/tech/bitco...-down-underground-site-silk-road-1149405.html
http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/lessons-from-the-second-great-bitcoin-crash
http://go.bloomberg.com/market-now/2013/04/11/bitcoin-still-not-a-currency-and-now-crashing/
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/359162,bitcoin-crashes-after-silk-road-founder-arrest.aspx
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...owing-us-government-seizure-silk-road-website
http://www.zdnet.com/bitcoin-exceeds-200-mark-investors-worry-about-bubble-7000022325/
http://www.igotbitcoin.com/stocks-crash-bitfunder-us-citizens-liquidate-holdings/#axzz2jsi4btLZ
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygre...rom-ross-ulbricht-alleged-owner-of-silk-road/

Don't get me wrong.
I love BitCoin but my opinion is that it will fail, eventually.

In 5-10 years a cryptocurrency will become Mainstream BUT not until Governments legislate for it.
Remember BitCoin was released as an experiment, Governments were caught off guard and are now struggling to catch up.
What do Governments do when they can't control something? They tend to BAN it or place legislation in place to control it.
 
I think I will stick with the old fashioned method of banking. I came to know that a guy lost over $200,000 in BC just because he forgot his password. I don't wanna be in his situation. Poor guy!
 
For one... WE already have quantum computing...

Quantum computing, sure is a breakthrough in size, power, and consumption of ALUs. But there are already parts in your CURRENT computer that are QUANTUM COMPUTING PARTS.

Bitcoin, becomes more difficult to mine with every 2016 blocks broken through. If we had another huge technology bubble... Bitcoin would adjust itself mathematically.

If one person made going through blocks that much more difficult for everyone else. He makes a lot of money in the process, sure that's why he invested in the first place, but eventually his gains will flatline. That one person(and this happens in the real world currency exchanges! If you haven't traded the open market DAILY, don't bring this point into question. I know.) will make the BitCoin that much more valuable, but in turn making his profits decrease over time, or every 2016 blocks he breaks through himself. Everyone else's hardware would need a serious upgrade to catch up to this guy right? Right. However, with the difficulty change it will discourage new miners with small budgets, and mostly encourage trading. More of the at-home miners with lots of MHash/s or THash/s will join pools and still make good money mining. However, it takes TIME and POWER to get through the blocks. With difficulty ever increasing, this almost kind of drives the technology market to go smaller and more powerful.

TL:DR: Quantum Computing won't affect BitCoin. The only thing that can at this point is governments.
 
 
People refusing to trade Bitcoins for USD is the worst that can happen to US government IMHO.
China will be fast to fill the void everywhere US fails to adjust itself to a new reality.
 
lancis said:
People refusing to trade Bitcoins for USD is the worst that can happen to US government IMHO.
China will be fast to fill the void everywhere US fails to adjust itself to a new reality.
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They better clear their pollution first...
 
lancis said:
People refusing to trade Bitcoins for USD is the worst that can happen to US government IMHO.
China will be fast to fill the void everywhere US fails to adjust itself to a new reality.
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Actually, I think people refusing to (or being blocked from) trading BitCoins for USD will kill BitCoin.
 
My final prediction in this thread:

BitCoin will continue to rise, some major gains before the New Year but will Crash spectacularly within 8-12 Months.
 
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