Bitcoin Downtrend.

[Dark Sky]

42,000 * 0.66 = 27720.

At this point in the 2017 run, it retraced exactly 25%.

42,000 * 0.75 = 31500

Take your pick.

Aye but retracements don't typically look like the chart BTC is showing now, its normally a push, ease, push, ease, with each push being a higher high,

We are getting lower highs now after each ease, which is indicating not enough market power to take it to a new ATH, this typically indicates a downtrend, and who is going to shove money in during a downtrend? Rule 1 in trading is never go against the trend, always trade with the trend,

I dont think anyone who understands trading would be holding onto any BTC, which is resulting in sell offs, and they will be buying back in when the market goes back into an uptrend,

Back in 2017 when we had the lower high after the peak, it crashed, we are seeing the same thing now in terms of visuals

​

Engulfing bullish 4h candle + the previous candle closed outside of the bolls.

13mins from now, shit could be getting real.

Theres no divergence there, just looks like a ease after a down push, nothing to indicate an end to the downtrend, looks like a continuation of the downtrend to me. Personal opinion though,

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

I dont think anyone who understands trading would be holding onto any BTC

I think Greyscale and a dozen other institutionals might have something to say about that.

I don't think anyone who understands crypto trading believes that the price of BTC will get back to $10K at this point honestly, but we'll see how it turns out though, good luck man.

 

[Dark Sky]

I think Greyscale and a dozen other institutionals might have something to say about that.

I don't think anyone who understands crypto trading believes that the price of BTC will get back to $10K at this point honestly, but we'll see how it turns out though, good luck man.

Aye but they are an investment company for long term not traders, they don't care if it goes to 10k, 20k or 1k, because they know it's going back up. They've done their research. The market cap is still relatively low to the available market, and it needs to be a lot higher to reduce volatility. It's open to manipulation too, and you have some very very rich people on this planet with the power to manipulate with the current market cap.

I strongly believe the bears have taken control now, and institutional investors probably want it back down too, because then they can lower their averages and make even bigger returns.

But good luck to you too mate, hope it does turn out in your favour, I personally have no holdings anymore so there's no loss in it for me whichever direction it goes

I think Greyscale and a dozen other institutionals might have something to say about that.

I don't think anyone who understands crypto trading believes that the price of BTC will get back to $10K at this point honestly, but we'll see how it turns out though, good luck man.

Also, just to give you a perspective from a pessimistic side, there is no divergence on RSI, MACD is showing a downtrend, the 3 weeks uptrend support line has now been broken on the 4h chart, it's now broke it's BB contraction and moved below the SMA everything, everything is pointing towards it going down on 4h chart.

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

Also, just to give you a perspective from a pessimistic side, there is no divergence on RSI, MACD is showing a downtrend, the 3 weeks uptrend support line has now been broken on the 4h chart, it's now broke it's BB contraction and moved below the SMA everything, everything is pointing towards it going down on 4h chart.View attachment 160042

Saying you think it's going lower and saying you think it's going to $10K are two v different things.

If it got to $30K, it will surprise literally no one. If it gets down to $10K, it would be odd to put it mildly.

 

[Dark Sky]

Saying you think it's going lower and saying you think it's going to $10K are two v different things.

If it got to $30K, it will surprise literally no one. If it gets down to $10K, it would be odd to put it mildly.

I agree, but the sell signals are indicating lower than 30k, I could be wrong but just my opinion, the 10k as stated before I'm not closed minded about, just my opinion that i'm waiting for

 

[mazar]

learn to read the charts ,the bull run isnt over .testing support at 30250 if that breaks whicj is likely 27777 will hold then return to 40k

 

[NX_NULL]

If you are not a trader, Just hold it, next year the price will be 5x

 

[Toz]

I don't think anyone who understands crypto trading believes that the price of BTC will get back to $10K at this point honestly, but we'll see how it turns out though, good luck man.

I personally don't see it going too far below $20K (maybe $18 under normal conditions once this bull run comes to a conclusion), UNLESS something major happens with Tether. Otherwise, I think after we finish testing the previous ATH, and start going up, we'll never see those numbers again.

 

[mazar]

it isnt going anywhere near 20k

 

[member1476378]

20K soon

 

[SavvyMoney]

it's going up!

 

[lazouille]

I love bitcoin, much better than a TV series for the scenario

 

[gihanzami]

As I said, it is rising again.

 

[Flacko]

I laugh everytime I see a panic thread like this and it recovers as usual

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

I agree, but the sell signals are indicating lower than 30k, I could be wrong but just my opinion, the 10k as stated before I'm not closed minded about, just my opinion that i'm waiting for

One thing I was going to say the other day.. I can tell that you're applying a lot of the things you're learning about TA to the way you're thinking, but you're applying it really rigidly man.

A majority of what happens in the market is psychology driven, not just TA driven. Whales play on things like creating patterns that a lot of retail traders then think are guarantees of movement in one direction or another.

But what really drives the market is whales making money. If creating the impression that there is a downtrend but then bringing it up generates more profit for whales, they would likely do that. They control everything.. if they want to take the price to $5 right now or $500,000 right now, they could. But the aim is to create the illusion that something kind of natural is happening.. because (like gambling) people need to think they are taking part in something which is kind of a level playing field.

Likewise, now many retail traders are probably thinking that there's going to be a recovery and they'll miss out if they don't get in now, and so will FOMO in.. then it might become more profitable to crash it.

TA is good for a guide, but just because the rules say "X means that it's a downtrend or Y means it's not a downtrend", doesn't mean that the market has to follow that. After all, the crypto market is designed by whales to make them money.. TA patterns aren't universal truths that can't be broken.

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets back down to $30K to shake out more weak hands, but we'll have to see over the coming weeks if it gets much below that

 

[Dark Sky]

One thing I was going to say the other day.. I can tell that you're applying a lot of the things you're learning about TA to the way you're thinking, but you're applying it really rigidly man.

A majority of what happens in the market is psychology driven, not just TA driven. Whales play on things like creating patterns that a lot of retail traders then think are guarantees of movement in one direction or another.

But what really drives the market is whales making money. If creating the impression that there is a downtrend but then bringing it up generates more profit for whales, they would likely do that. They control everything.. if they want to take the price to $5 right now or $500,000 right now, they could. But the aim is to create the illusion that something kind of natural is happening.. because (like gambling) people need to think they are taking part in something which is kind of a level playing field.

Likewise, now many retail traders are probably thinking that there's going to be a recovery and they'll miss out if they don't get in now, and so will FOMO in.. then it might become more profitable to crash it.

TA is good for a guide, but just because the rules say "X means that it's a downtrend or Y means it's not a downtrend", doesn't mean that the market has to follow that. After all, the crypto market is designed by whales to make them money.. TA patterns aren't universal truths that can't be broken.

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets back down to $30K to shake out more weak hands, but we'll have to see over the coming weeks if it gets much below that

I agree that TA is not a guarantee, which is why everything is just an opinion for me. And I agree that patterns don't guarantee an outcome, that's why we wait for the pattern to end, and see the outcome.

I.E, people believe an ascending triangle is bullish, but I say. Hell no, it's not bullish until it breaks out upwards. Once it breaks out, then I will ride it.

I disagree with whales at this stage, I think the market cap is too high. Pre 2018 I think whales had full control.

And you have stated that market is psychology driven, that's why TA works. Humans cannot control their patterns as a collective, that's why patterns repeat over and over again. It's kind of like saying "How do you know there will be another war in the future?" Well, because humans are driven towards war eventually. It's part of human aggression, something we can't change as a collective.

TA is based on the fact that humans are made of DNA, and that DNA doesn't change, and mindsets do not change too much, therefor we repeat and repeat our actions. Studying patterns isn't saying "why did humans do this to form the pattern", it's saying "Whenever humans form X pattern, they tend do take Y action"

I agree that whales still have some control, they can cause FOMO or FEAR, but again, this is TA, the whales know if they do X, humans as a collective will do Y.

We are at the point now where it hasn't crashed, but it's looking like a strong down trend. This is causing people to be cautiously optimistic. Unfortunately, the fear of losing money, always overpowers the desire to earn money when it comes to substantial amounts of someone's savings.

Therefor I can see this continuing downwards until it's low enough for people to think it cannot go any lower, and their desire to earn money then overpowers the risk of losing money. This is when the whales can initiate the next bull run, when they know the majority are willing to jump back in at the sight of an uptrend. Because everyone wants to catch it at the bottom, and exit at the top.

Only time will tell, but based on previous actions in the crypto market, I'm pretty confident this will exhaust to near 10k before the next bull run.

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

I disagree with whales at this stage, I think the market cap is too high. Pre 2018 I think whales had full control.

Without at all wanting to offend you because this is an interesting chat we're having.. you saying you disagree with whales is kind of like a guy that just learned how to use a calculator saying that Einstein was wrong.

To be fair, it would be the same if me or anyone on this forum said that - the level of expertise within institutional organisations is something that you an I possess about 0.0001% of.

There are 50 different ways they're making millions of dollars per week in the crypto market that you wouldn't be able to understand even if they sat you down and explained it 5 times from start to finish.

It's genius level stuff mate, and as well as having armies of math, physics, AI, stats and computing Phd's from the best universities in the world, they have cutting-edge algorithms and equipment coming out of their asses, and are bankrolled with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

Whales will always have full control over the crypto market.. not in the granular movement on the 5m scale, although often times they also do there too, but in general they totally control the movement of price. They're an oligarchy of casino owners running the tables 24/7 in order to maximise their profit.

By understanding TA you give yourself a much better chance of profiting from their tables, but they remain their tables and always will.

A good example: Fibonacci retracement is one of the most reliable indicators for identifying short-medium term trend changes. Here's the investopedia page for them:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp
This is a para from it:

"Fibonacci Retracement and Predicting Stock Prices
For unknown reasons, these Fibonacci ratios seem to play a role in the stock market, just as they do in nature. Technical traders attempt to use them to determine critical points where an asset's price momentum is likely to reverse."

The fact that the price regularly turns on these points is basically arbitrary and not based on anything.. other than the way the system has been designed to teach traders what the rules are, and then selectively use those rules against them to generate wealth. It's arbitrary. There's no natural mathematical force that means that at 0.618 of an uptrend that the price will come down to and revert - they chose that because it at least makes some kind of sense, it's better than picking random numbers, and it's easy enough for the plebs to learn and apply.

The reason that you think 3 lower highs means a downtrend is because they taught someone else to think that years ago, and eventually now someone has taught you that. The explanation is the gradually dropping ability of bulls to push the price up as bears take over, but that's really just a cover story for them being able to create a believable scenario of a "natural" financial system where people have the opportunity to profit if they just learn the rules good enough.

The reason that learning the rules (TA) makes you profit, is because you're conforming to their system, not because you're beating whales. You never will, it's their game.

Every now and then big investors lose huge amounts (Novogratz in 2019/last year), but in general their ROI moves in one direction for good reason - they make the price move, and instead of following their own rules, they manifest the results of the rules for others to see.

Whales aren't a few early adopters of Bitcoin anymore like they were in 2012, you're right mate. Now they're many of the most sophisticated trading houses in the world.

As I mentioned, I don't personally think there's a chance of it getting back to $10K, but if it does, it's because they want it to - not because retails traders decide to resell 2/3's of all of the Bitcoin that's been accumulated over the last 6 months.

If you disagree with institutionals that hold a huge amount of total BTC and will do long term, and many retail traders and analysts also believe that the price is going up, who's going to be selling that 2/3's of accumulated BTC to get it back there?

A few fear to greed ratios:

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/https://btctools.io/stats/crypto-fear-and-greed-index#:~:text=0-24 = Extreme Fear,50-74 = Greedhttps://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

 

[Dark Sky]

Without at all wanting to offend you because this is an interesting chat we're having.. you saying you disagree with whales is kind of like a guy that just learned how to use a calculator saying that Einstein was wrong.

To be fair, it would be the same if me or anyone on this forum said that - the level of expertise within institutional organisations is something that you an I possess about 0.0001% of.

There are 50 different ways they're making millions of dollars per week in the crypto market that you wouldn't be able to understand even if they sat you down and explained it 5 times from start to finish.

It's genius level stuff mate, and as well as having armies of math, physics, AI, stats and computing Phd's from the best universities in the world, they have cutting-edge algorithms and equipment coming out of their asses, and are bankrolled with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.

Whales will always have full control over the crypto market.. not in the granular movement on the 5m scale, although often times they also do there too, but in general they totally control the movement of price. They're an oligarchy of casino owners running the tables 24/7 in order to maximise their profit.

By understanding TA you give yourself a much better chance of profiting from their tables, but they remain their tables and always will.

A good example: Fibonacci retracement is one of the most reliable indicators for identifying short-medium term trend changes. Here's the investopedia page for them:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp
This is a para from it:

"Fibonacci Retracement and Predicting Stock Prices
For unknown reasons, these Fibonacci ratios seem to play a role in the stock market, just as they do in nature. Technical traders attempt to use them to determine critical points where an asset's price momentum is likely to reverse."

The fact that the price regularly turns on these points is basically arbitrary and not based on anything.. other than the way the system has been designed to teach traders what the rules are, and then selectively use those rules against them to generate wealth. It's arbitrary. There's no natural mathematical force that means that at 0.618 of an uptrend that the price will come down to and revert - they chose that because it at least makes some kind of sense, it's better than picking random numbers, and it's easy enough for the plebs to learn and apply.

The reason that you think 3 lower highs means a downtrend is because they taught someone else to think that years ago, and eventually now someone has taught you that. The explanation is the gradually dropping ability of bulls to push the price up as bears take over, but that's really just a cover story for them being able to create a believable scenario of a "natural" financial system where people have the opportunity to profit if they just learn the rules good enough.

The reason that learning the rules (TA) makes you profit, is because you're conforming to their system, not because you're beating whales. You never will, it's their game.

Every now and then big investors lose huge amounts (Novogratz in 2019/last year), but in general their ROI moves in one direction for good reason - they make the price move, and instead of following their own rules, they manifest the results of the rules for others to see.

Whales aren't a few early adopters of Bitcoin anymore like they were in 2012, you're right mate. Now they're many of the most sophisticated trading houses in the world.

As I mentioned, I don't personally think there's a chance of it getting back to $10K, but if it does, it's because they want it to - not because retails traders decide to resell 2/3's of all of the Bitcoin that's been accumulated over the last 6 months.

If you disagree with institutionals that hold a huge amount of total BTC and will do long term, and many retail traders and analysts also https://www.coindesk.com/why-is-bitcoin-going-up-and-will-it-crash, who's going to be selling that 2/3's of accumulated BTC to get it back there?

A few fear to greed ratios:

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/https://btctools.io/stats/crypto-fear-and-greed-index#:~:text=0%2D24%20%3D%20Extreme%20Fear,50%2D74%20%3D%20Greedhttps://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

You are assuming whales are a collective, they aren't, at least not any gigantic collective that's currently known about. let's take a huge institutional investor. $2billion worth of crypto. Not just bitcoin. But lets say for arguments sake the entire $2billion was in bitcoin.

Bitcoin reaches a market cap of 1 trillion, what do you think happens if that institutional investor sells their entire $2 billion? Not even a dent in the market cap. It's not enough to move the market. Thus very very little control.

I do completely disagree, everyone has their own opinions, but TA is based on market psychology. TA has been around before cryptocurrency, it works with regulated markets where whales cannot manipulate it, and it works even better with crypto because of the higher irrationality.

Fibonacci retracement is a good indicator, I don't doubt it. There's no science behind it, it's probably because lots of people use it for entries and exits and the by-product is resistance and support.

3 lower highs do not indicate a downtrend because some random dude spread the word and everyone followed it, it indicates a downtrend because the market is trying to push upwards, but it can't because there isn't enough buyers at that time.

3 lower highs is a downtrend, this is a fact. A downtrend can last 1 hour, or 1 year, it depends on the time frames your using and the market. If bitcoin was to make a new ATH now, this still wouldn't be classed as a retracement, it would just mean a new uptrend has started.

This is a downtrend. It is a fact.

But if you do find investopedia reliable, then you can read about the definitions of retracements and reversals here https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/retracements.asp

It does state:
reversal = lower highs and lower lows
retracement = higher highs + higher lows

It also states that reversals normally happen for extended periods of time.

I hope I helped somewhat here, I'm not looking to cause offence or to act like I'm right, as I do state multiple times I am only sharing my opinion to help

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

You are assuming whales are a collective, they aren't, at least not any gigantic collective that's currently known about.

Not that they are a collective at all, but that they control the price by a large majority over it being some kind of natural occurrence relating to TA.

I guess the difference is you're saying something along the lines of TA's influencing institutionals, I'm saying it's the other way around.

let's take a huge institutional investor. $2billion worth of crypto. Not just bitcoin. But lets say for arguments sake the entire $2billion was in bitcoin.

Bitcoin reaches a market cap of 1 trillion, what do you think happens if that institutional investor sells their entire $2 billion? Not even a dent in the market cap. It's not enough to move the market. Thus very very little control.

Sure but that's just one hypothetical.

About 40% of all BTC was held by 1,000 accounts in 2017.. prior to a huge influx of institutional money. At that point in time there were 20M BTC wallets on Blockchain.com.

So out of 20,000,000+ (by quite a bit taking into account other BTC wallets) Bitcoin wallets, 1,000 individuals or groups held 40% of all BTC, and since then the situation would have become more centralized.

So yeah, one institutional holding $2B of BTC in a hypothetical situation where the MC is 1T doesn't have a huge impact, but 10% of the top 1,000 accounts all moving based on the same data certainly would.

it works with regulated markets where whales cannot manipulate it

I'm curious what you think a whale is? The entire traditional market is controlled by "whales" as well. It's not some random single guy that happens to have a lot of an asset - it's the trading companies and institutional investors that run the market.

You think mainstream financial markets aren't manipulated because they're regulated?

3 lower highs do not indicate a downtrend because some random dude spread the word and everyone followed it, it indicates a downtrend because the market is trying to push upwards, but it can't because there isn't enough buyers at that time.

As an example that's a bit more concrete.. your original chart:

If the phenomenon you're seeing here is organic and just a case of bulls running out of steam, why are all 3 points perfectly aligned? Why does this always occur (or at least a majority of the time)?

Did bulls perfectly run out of stream just as the 3rd high met the trend line created by the first 2?

If it's organic and not orchestrated, these 3 points would be much more random, no?

So the exact points of these 3 highs are being controlled, we can see that obviously. In that case, how much of the position of these 3 points is based upon organic buying and selling, and how much is based on the control of market makers? It must be a large amount as a result of market makers, seeing as though the price is able to be aligned perfectly like that, right?

Really what's happening is that market makers (who are heavily tied to large institutional investors AND the exchanges themselves) control the creation of TA patterns, and they align the 3 lower highs like this, because it sends a message to all of the retail traders who are waiting to be told what to do next in order to make money.

This is the truth of the situation mate, not that bulls just ran out of steam 3 times and that happened to occur in a perfect straight line. It's basic logic tbh.

3 lower highs is a downtrend, this is a fact. A downtrend can last 1 hour, or 1 year, it depends on the time frames your using and the market. If bitcoin was to make a new ATH now, this still wouldn't be classed as a retracement, it would just mean a new uptrend has started.

This is a downtrend. It is a fact.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp
"False signals are also a reality. A reversal may occur using an indicator or price action, but then the price immediately resumes to move in the prior trending direction again."

I'm not saying that in your course it didn't tell you that 3 lower highs is a downtrend and that on investo it doesn't say the same, I'm saying that it's not reliable to believe that's anything other than an artificially-created paradigm which the considerations of actual psychology (ie. we make lots of traders think it's a downtrend then beartrap them) trumps pure TA.

As you mentioned, these are just opinions mate.. there's a lot to trading and it takes a long time to understand it properly. I've found it's much more about being able to read between the lines than to memorise TA patterns and rigidly abide by them.

imo, you have better success when you think of us retail traders as sheep and institutional traders are shepards, and then imagine why the shepards are telling the sheep to do things, instead of just what they are telling them to do.

 

[wakuzu]

i think 3 year from now BTC will be $75K because BTC cant be mining again and you will be likes elite person when you have BTC maybe 10-15 years.