10k its hard to get there as there are many buyers and enthusiast hungry people buying i think a 20k is a good place where u start at leat ur half savings as for 10k may take months to be there
Bitcoin Downtrend.
- Thread starter Dark Sky
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adam11soccer
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- Mar 4, 2012
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Pomp says it’s going to a Million.
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Dark Sky
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Apologies, my maths was off, I was just giving rough numbers, I flipped the 25% and 75% by mistake.
But yes over 12 months, I anticipate for this cycle to repeat. I'm not saying it will be 10k in a few months, I'm saying it will be 10k before it breaks the ATH again, whether thats in 2 weeks or 12 months I don't know, I don't really study timeframe predictions as it's not useful to me.
I don't really have an interest in the price dropping to be fair, I'm not too fussed if it does or doesn't, trading is just a side hobby to me, I don't do it for money, I just enjoy it for some weird reason, I do buy a lot of books on finance/stocks/bonds/trading, I guess I just have a natural interest in it.
I like my money making methods to be more solid rather than fluid, especially since interest rates are low and our generation is about cashflows rather than savings accounts. So trading is honestly just a hobby for me, when I earn money from it, it's just a side bonus. I'm mainly in the SEO game for creating cashflows, so my opinion does have 0% emotion to it.
It's like gambling, if I bet on red, I'm emotionally invested. If I'm watching others play that I don't have any relationship to at all, I don't care if it comes out red or black. At the moment I'm not playing BTC, and since it's not a cashflow for me and it's a hobby, if it makes a new ATH and I miss it, it doesn't bother me. I just like watching erratic markets lol, it's fun and its something we will probably never see again once its over.
I've switched to stock markets now, there's quite a lot of companies that have had their stock price sliced in half, like catering companies who couldn't function in lockdown, but they will operate as normal when the pandemics over, and that's when their price will rise back to normal.
Stock markets are a good investment as we come to the end of the pandemic.
Also quantitative easing leads people to the stock market. After all who wants cash when the governments are devaluing it with QE? I'd rather have assets. That's why gold price has smashed upwards
I'm also hoping for the housing market to crash soon, I thought Brexit would trigger it in the UK, but sadly the pandemic blocked it, it's an overinflated bubble. Soon as a big bad move comes from the UK gov, the bubble will pop. And then time to jump in to real estate
- May 18, 2012
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No one expected that. Glad that I didn't sell all of my btc.Not bad lol this was a prediction over the year bu the way I wasnt expecting it to drop within a few days to 10k
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At this point, if it goes to 10K ever again I will instantly lose my faith in reality.Not bad lol this was a prediction over the year bu the way I wasnt expecting it to drop within a few days to 10k
Dark Sky
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2017 Parabolic run
2020 Parabolic run
General market psychology of a parabolic run.
To be fair, they look extremely similar parabolic runs, I haven't checked this, but I imagine shorting getting quite heavy at this stage. And I have to say, you were right, I legit believe bitcoin is being 100% controlled by the billionaires now, I believe they are following this exact market psychology as it's the one that repeats itself throughout history over and over again so it's probably the easiest to control with manipulation. It's almost like a self fulfilling prophecy if they add some manipulation in at specific points,
We have already seen what they can do with the media with GME, they've got news stations like the BBC and ITV stating the reddit users are going to silver, yet not one post on WSB about buying silver, and Citadel holding a giant position in silver.
If they can dominate regulated markets like that without any investigation from the SEC, they can do whatever they like with bitcoin during it's volatile stages.
Just my 2 pennies, but I'm excited to see if I'm right,
D
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Dude this period of time is 150% not comparable to the very end of the 2017 bull run.
If you think that $42,000 was the top of a bull run, then I understand why you think it's going back to $10,000.. but it's not. This is like the period of time that was at the beginning of 2017:
Plenty of metrics support this mate.. the halving was only 9 months ago for a start.
You're doing yourself a huge disservice by not properly assessing the situation right now.. you're going to look back in a few years and be kicking yourself. Try to have an open mind about it.
This is the 3rd bull run I've traded mate, my first was 2013. I made huge mistakes in that run. If I had the experience I have now back then I would have created life-changing wealth for myself almost a decade ago.
Consider what the consequences will be if you miss this - that's all I'd say. It's you against the world right now, and while that's a romantic idea, it's also a silly idea a lot of the time.
For what it's worth though, I think we might be minutes away from a fairly huge dump.
D
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** UNI has done 5X in the last month without a break - if this does dump now, shorting UNI is an absolute no brainer. It has the potential to sheer huge amounts of value after the run it's had.
Certainly may not dump though - market being cagey as fuck right now and a lot of people are probably anticipating the same.
Certainly may not dump though - market being cagey as fuck right now and a lot of people are probably anticipating the same.
Dark Sky
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I'm just not sure how your so confident and say these aren't comparable, looks exactly the same to me just with lower multipliers which is expected considering the market cap. The golden rule is never trade against the trend, and this is in a downtrend, so it would be crazy to buy right now if trading it, if it breaks the ATH I'll jump back in, but there is no logic to jumping in at this stage, it's going against the trend.
D
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I'm surprised that in the same comment before you could say that you realise the market is 100% manipulated by whales and then also base your thoughts about where the market's at entirely based on patterns they have created.
You have to feel the energy of the market mate.. does it feel like people are freaking out and wanting to get rid of their crypto?
We could both be right or wrong though - I'm confident, but you're right - almost anything can happen. But imo what you're saying defies logic at this point.
Incidentally, take a look at UNI now
.. ETH gunna bled hard too if this swandives.
Dark Sky
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I'm surprised that in the same comment before you could say that you realise the market is 100% manipulated by whales and then also base your thoughts about where the market's at entirely based on patterns they have created.
You have to feel the energy of the market mate.. does it feel like people are freaking out and wanting to get rid of their crypto.
Incidentally, take a look at UNI now
As it's easier to trade with the trend than against it, it's easier for whales to manipulate with psychology than against it, so I would anticipate that their intention is to repeat 2017, remember there are tons and tons of people out there who don't understand trading, and have never dived into it, they probably don't understand or know about market manipulation either, it's these people who are buying bitcoin entirely with their emotions, and it's these people who they are taking the money from with ease.
And we are not at the freak out point yet, otherwise you'd see a big drop, 2017 happened over the course of an entire year, but from my social media and even on here, you can see the interest slowly going down, I'm very very tempted to short this, I'm just waiting to see where the peak is of this current rise, if it doesn't make a new ATH now, I'm 90/10 on shorting it,
D
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I'm already shorting UNI and have been since $21.2, but you can be damn sure I'm exiting that before things turn around.
This may be a huge selloff.. like back down to $34,500 - $35,000 within a quick period of time. Will have to see.. it's been alt saison for weeks without a blow off.
Dark Sky
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But how come you said 2017 and 2020 weren't comparable? I'm open minded which is why i'm askling, I'm always looking for new information, especially when I'm considering making a short move.
But the below looks like an exact replica of what happened in 2017,
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No probs.. Answer these questions as a good starting point:
What was the date of the 2016 BTC halving?
What was the date of the peak of the 2017 bull run?
How many days between these two dates?
What was the date of the 2020 halving?
What was the date that BTC reached it's current ATH of ~ $42,000?
How many days between those two dates?
Then.. look at the stock-to-flow model I posted earlier here.. like I said, we're currently on red-going-to-orange dots, we need to be on orange-going-to-yellow dots before we start seeing the end of this run.
Now do this..
Get the date of the 2020 bull run and add the same number of days to it as there was between 2016 halving and 2017 run.
Where does that put you? End of this year.
Compare that to the stock-to-flow model and where the orange dots will start becoming yellow... end of this year.
Then consider the logic of waiting 4 years for another bull run and then only pushing the price of BTC double... does that make sense when we look at the huge growth in ATH in every other bull run?
Then think about all of the secondary reasons like the huge increase in institutional investment, the catastrophic state of the stock market right now, global unrest and pandemics, great reset etc etc etc etc the world is massively unsteady at the moment, more than in any of our lives.
In Cyprus and Venezuela people flocked to crypto in droves when their financial system's failed... people in the mainstream financial sector are seriously comparing gold and Bitcoin for longterm haven asset status for the first time in any real way.
There's so much more greed to be had this year and so little fear. It's more than just looking at charts and recognising a pattern man.