Making money by only trading ONE pattern in crypto

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Introduction:

Hi guys,

Last couple of weeks I've been spending more and more time on Crypto, learning how to analyze charts, patterns and so forth. It's actually come to the point where I'm thinking of making this my main source income. But I am not convinced yet, so that's why I am starting this journey. I've been in crypto since April this year where I made some decent gains on Ethereum, but now it's time to stop hodling and trade for real.

The pattern:
During my experimation the last couple weeks I've found one pattern to be the most consistent, I think almost every time I've seen that pattern it has ended with a pump in price. I've tried trading several other patterns but I always end up losing those trades. So in this journey I will be experimenting if I can make money by solely trading ONE pattern without indicators.

The pattern is called a symmetric triangle, it starts out big and as time goes by it makes lower highs and lower lows. Here's a great example of it in action: https://www.tradingview.com/x/k12FJdWC/

The journey:
I will trade both alts and BTC. The main focus is getting those percentages up now in the beginning, so I won't be trading with too much to start with. As we progress further into this crypto-journey I plan on putting in more and more money.

I plan on sharing all trades I make along with my technical analysis, that way you too can probably learn something. You might even spot something I have missed.

Updates coming later today.

Happy trading!

 

[frzs90]

Following this journey, as I just bought a bigger amount of bitcoins yesterday, and I'm also interested in trading - however never done that before and have 0 experience in it.

 

[nyemkuna]

Im following. Have tried other IM and none is working for me. Was wondering if there is any decent crypto site that one can just invest and earn???

 

[DConny1]

Very interesting. I've been holding crypto for about 7 months now. Making some trades where I see fit. I will be following this. Good luck

 

[jazzc]

There's a reason we say "good luck" and not "good analysis". Technical "analysis" is simply luck (good or bad) wearing pretentious clothes. In other words, make sure not to get too confident and bet the bank on it.

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Update #1:

There's a reason we say "good luck" and not "good analysis". Technical "analysis" is simply luck (good or bad) wearing pretentious clothes. In other words, make sure not to get too confident and bet the bank on it.

Exactly, trading is basically gambling. But what makes this different is that you can use statistics and probability to minimize loss. Why most people fail at trading is because they don't follow a system long enough or just do trades based on emotions. Only do the trades that you are the most confident on.

First and foremost, learn how to manage your losses and risk. A good way to do this is to set strict rules on where to take profit and where to take a loss. An example would be to aim for 5% profit and -2% in losses, never more. You could lose more than half your trades but the winning ones would still make you in profit. It's of course not that simple and there's plenty of things that can fuck your trades, like fake breakouts, selling too early, holding on for too long and so on. But if you follow a system you're doing better than most traders.

Analyzing time
Yesterday I found around 30 or so coins that were forming my beloved pattern, how many pumped after the pattern? Let's find out...
ADA - Broke the triangle and in 14 hours it's up by 11% and still rising when I write this.
ADX - It broke twice, first a fakeout which would've been a -2% loss but next breakout resulted in 7.45% profit.
ARK - Broke and went up 18% in 4 hours.
CLUB - Another funny one, it followed the resistance but broke through the support til it shot up 22%. Wouldn't have traded it most likely.
DASH - Broke and went up 4.19% in 4 hours, after that it dropped to breakout price and is now climbing up again.
DGB - Broke and went up 6% then down to breakout price, then shot up 14%.
EMC2 - Broke, went up 1% bounced back to support and later went up to 5% in 6 hours.
FUN - Broke and went up 3.4%, dropped down to buy price then later up 7%.
KMD - First did a fakeout, touched support and went up 4.5% in 2 hours.
LBC - Broke and reached 3%, after that it went sideways so I wouldn't consider this a good trade.
LMC - Did a fakeout and later just bounced sideways out of the triangle.
LSK - Broke and reached 7% before dropping down to buy price, at the time of this post it's going up.
MCO - Broke, but not the resistance but rather the support and went sideways.
MUSIC - Broke but went sideways for a while before shooting up to 12%.
NAV - Broke and reached 5%.
NEO - Broke, reached around 7% after a slow climb (with a dip to buy in price).
OMG - First a fakeout then a rise of 12%.
POT - Did breakout but not according to my triangle so I will call this a fail.
PTOY - It broke but it would've been too hard to buy in. It later dropped to support and continued sideways.
STEEM - Broke and reached 5% before dropping to support levels.
STORJ - Did breakout but a bit later than expected, reached 11% after breakout.
STRAT - Broke up, dipped to support and then shot up 13%.
TRIG - Broke up, dipped to support and shot up about 12.5%.
TRST - Broke triangle but just continued sideways.
UBQ - Broke and reached 13%.
VRM - Just broke the resistance line now, we'll see what will happen.
VTC - This one was kinda funny, it broke support and continued down before it shot up 47% in 2 hours.
WAVES - Broke and reached 13%.
XEM - Broke and reached 9.8%.
XLM - Broke the triangle and reached 5% then went slowly sideways before dipping.
XMR - Broke triangle and reached 6%.
XZC - My triangle was badly done so this wasn't really a true breakout. It went outside but quickly dipped to support and went sideways.
ZEN - Broke and reached about 7%. Dipped 17% after that.

What are the statistics then?
Out of 33 coins...
-9 coins did a "fakeout" or something similar to it. A fakeout is when the coin breaks out of my triangle and continues up, just do dip back down again.
-9 coins either failed or went sideways after the breakout. These trades would've resulted in 0 to -2% loss.
-15 coins did a "problem-free" breakout, meaning after they broke through the resistance they reached 5% or more.

Example of a fakeout:

What can we take from this?
-Market is unpredictable and predictable at the same time.
-If you want to play it safe, always wait and see if there's a potential fakeout coming. You're risking less, but also making less profit. I'll have to read up on this a little bit more.
-Get to know the coins you're trading, there's often common patterns in some of the coins. Take DASH for example, this coin does spike but it's usually only 3-5%. While a coin like VTC or GRS can do insane spikes of 20-50%.
-There's a bigger probability of the coin breaking up and giving you profit rather than breaking down and giving you a loss. (When using the symmetric triangle, could also change in the future)

Next week I'll begin doing some trades. I will not post my earning but rather how much percentage I make with each trade, because that's what matters in the end.

 

[frzs90]

Wow, nice, now that's what I call a research. :O

 

[chd17]

You have a plan so you're already ahead of most people that try to trade. Next, you just need the discipline to stick to your plan after a few trades that stop you out. Tight triangles are good patterns since you can usually keep a tight stop. If you let the winners run, you can have a successful strategy even with a low win percentage. Look forward to seeing your trades. Good luck.

 

[virtualinterlect]

Following, Good luck

 

[Rojuhh]

You seem to know what you're doing. Good luck and keep updating us! Very fascinating!

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

You have a plan so you're already ahead of most people that try to trade. Next, you just need the discipline to stick to your plan after a few trades that stop you out. Tight triangles are good patterns since you can usually keep a tight stop. If you let the winners run, you can have a successful strategy even with a low win percentage. Look forward to seeing your trades. Good luck.

Thanks man, appreciate the positive attitude!


Update #2:
This week it's time to start trading. I've been looking at a few potential coins and found a couple of ones that are doing a clear symmetric triangle, so these are the ones I will be following today. I still need to find a good way to set price alerts, I don't want to pay for TradingView so atm I'm using Blockfolio on my phone. If you know any free services for computers, let me know.

As I haven't really figured out a good way to keep track of multiple coins, I will stick to 5 for now. I will probably miss a couple of opportunities this way, but hey who wants to keep track of 30 coins at once?

Decred:

Factom:

Lomocoin:

Lisk:

Lunyr:

I chose these coins mainly because they're doing a clear symmetric triangle, but also because they can do large runs, most of them have spiked 10-30% before. I don't really have a way to choose which coin I will be trading, I guess it depends on how good it follows the pattern. I will also make sure to wait a little bit after the initial breakout to see if it's a fakeout.

 

[Razvan]

good stuff mate , im trading crypto as well , in a bit of loss myself hopefully will recover , good luck on your journey

 

[RightFootFanatic]

Have you thought of using a trading bot?

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Have you thought of using a trading bot?

I have tried one, but it didn't work that well (it's a work in progress). I don't know if I could trust a bot with too much money to be honest.

 

[Universe0]

What timeframe are you using for the analysis?
Also good luck on you journey!

 

[seosky]

will follow it as I also recently step in crypto niche.

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Update #3:
Got to try a special indicator for a week for free which I will be incorporating into my triangle strategy. More on this later.

Missed a huge short opportunity on BTC today, oh well, more times will come.

Trade update:
Total: 1
Successful: 1
Failed: 0
Profit: 2.69%

First trade was LMC. It did a fakeout but I managed to sell it at a profit of 2.69%. I later got distracted and just started looking at BTC which made me miss the big boom in alt coins...

Biggest issue for me is keeping track of all these fucking coins, there are just too many of them!

 

[Deleted member 969102]

Biggest issue for me is keeping track of all these fucking coins, there are just too many of them!

What are you using to track them? I have Tab Resize for Chrome & a lot of Bittrex tabs & monitors and it's still hard.

Having one site that shows +/-% of the coins I am watching + a quick link to a live graph would be so useful.

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Update #4:
Yesterday was pretty fun trading wise. I had charted several coins and went with KMD in the end. First trade I accidentally bought the ASK instead of the BID, but luckily I managed to sell at a breakeven. But due to Bittrex fees I lost 0.5% on that trade.

Then I did another quick scalp on KMD and gained 0.3%.

Next trade was LTC, which I could've gained a lot more from, but BTC took most of my attention yesterday... I'll explain soon. The LTC trade gave a shy 0.12%

Trade update:
Total: 4
Successful: 3
Failed: 1
Profit: 2.61%

Those were some shitty trades, but reason why I pulled out so quickly was because BTC was tanking hard at this time. It went down about 7.5% the last couple of days so I played it cool. I did 2 trades where I shorted BTC with x50 leverage yesterday, but since I did not trade based any one patterns I will not include them here. Short #1 gave me 68% return and the short #2 gave me 50%.

My biggest issue here is being too impatient and selling too early, I think that's because I'm watching the price too much, which makes small price movements look big and thus leading me to sell early. I should just set a stop loss, leave the exchange and come back later.

 

[NotSoAverageJoe]

Update #5:
Another exciting day in crypto! BTC reached a new all time high because Segwit 2X got cancelled, made for a nice pump for many alts as well.

I have to admit... I'm not sticking to my symmetric triangle that much to be honest, scalping BTC is much more fun. I did one symmetric triangle trade yesterday by trading GRS, didn't breakout as expected though but managed to get a 0.6% profit from it. Always something, right? Again, I suffered from getting too bored waiting around for something to happen.

Trade update:
Total: 5
Successful: 4
Failed: 1
Profit: 3.21%

When the news about B2X being cancelled came out, BTC pumped, then dumped. I shorted that dump and made somewhere around 200% profit from that. To celebrate I bought a new keyboard for my computer, did I mention I bought it with BTC?