- May 1, 2011
- 4,831
- 426
It would not die like Myspace. It has still enough life in it to survive for next few years.
Personally, I think FB will stick around because it's the first social network that so many people are on;
It's a part of our culture - you even get people from the older generations asking eachother "are you on facebook" and accompanied by the fact that it has the capabilities of apps, already holds so much about our lives (something like 4% of photos ever taken are on FB) and provides site integration, I'm pretty sure it'll be around for at least another decade
I have some ideas that could beat FB, easily, what that I need are some reliable people and a powerful server to deliver the project.
Facebook is not that great, it makes lots of mistakes. People are still using it, just for lacking of better options around.
One thing you're not taking into account is the fact that new sites are popping up all the time that easily mitigate Facebook's extreme policies as far as new registrations go. As of right now you can't really do much on Facebook without a phone-verified account, and not everyone has a cellphone (or a credit card). In their efforts to prevent spam (oopsies) they have effectively reduced their userbase significantly.
As with every site/service on the web, there will come a clever alternative that will do something better or make the main focus of the aforementioned site/service easier for the average user (hell, if might just be branded better) and it will either gain in popularity and be bought out, or "blacked out" by it's main competitor.
Honestly that isn't really even a problem unless you're doing some really CPU-intensive stuff like large file media conversions or something. You can tune a small VPS to handle high volume so long as you use CDN's/external caching services like Amazon's S3 setup.