With all due respect, this question is somewhat absurd. No one knows, no one can predict except the web spam team at Google.
Heck, even Ed Dale was predicting "Doomsday" "within a few days" last week on one of his blog posts, and it was totally irresponsible of him. His doomsday prediction did not come true, at least not yet, in the time frame he predicted. But then... he was marketing some new course to people too.
But seriously, you can't predict such things and at this point, there is no pattern available for Penguin updates.