You won't get any link juice from tumblr anyway, because they only assign you a subdomain. However, the true power that tumblr gives your blog (as google sees it) stands in the amount of backlinks that you get when you are reblogged by others. Also, a tumblr blog generally gets updated several times/day (if you post or reblog others that often) and this is also something google really likes to see. So that's actually why tumblr blogs are seen so good by google...it has nothing to do with tumblr's pagerank.
Anyway, I can confirm that you can get pretty good organic traffic using both sollutions (a tumblr link or your custom domain). I have experienced both so far and I can tell you it usually takes 2 months before you see 50-100 organic hits/day, but then, if you are consistent and you grow your blog even further, it takes only one more month (3 months total) to see over 3k organic hits/day. As I said, I already tested this...