LostKing
Senior Member
- Sep 3, 2013
- 860
- 299
Untethered
I consider this the benefit of the doubt / charitable scenario.
The information presented here is circumstantial.
For statistical analysis, look at the Tether Report, linked at the bottom.
No USDT was issued after this report was made public.
The previous day, USDT had been issued.
I am not claiming Tether/Bitfinex were solely responsible for all of this.
All exchanges that have USDT pairs are complicit.
Anyone who transacted in USDT pairs is also complicit.
Most everyone involved has at least indirectly enabled Tether and financially benefited from them in some way.
Those who've made gains anyway.
There are surely many other entities that were, are, and will be manipulating the market.
This is almost certainly very simplified and reductive as well.
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Around Dec 15th, Chris Ellis, a Bitfinex employee, removed the warrant canaries from their twitter account.
Henceforth referred singularly to as iFinex, the parent company for Bitfinex that has same principals as Tether.
iFinex knew that providing information at that time would end very badly for them.
Feeling cornered with no other escape, iFinex decided they didn't have any choice except to acquire the necessary USD to make their problems go away.
How to do so though?
At current prices, there didn't seem to be any way that they would be to extract the required amount without destroying market confidence and their long term prospects.
Even if they do so, they might not be able to get enough.
A huge decrease from a much higher number, even if it's the same percent, seems like less as it's still so high.
As such, it was decided to pump the price by issuing more and more USDT.
The initial effect is immediate:
Bitcoin nearly doubles within 24 hours of receiving the subpoena.
Litecoin more than quadruples in ~5 days.
Ethereum doubles in ~11 days.
30 Days and 30 Nights of Pumping
Basically all crypto are overall pumping, an almost non-stop crescendo until an apex is reached at ~831 billion total market cap on Jan 7th, ~30 days after receiving the subpoena.
This monthly increase was the second largest ever total market cap increase, 375 billion to ~831, though only a third of the monthly increase from November to December 2013.
Afterwards, the selling begins to eliminate their liability, exposure, and quite possibly make a lot of profit.
The selling had begun and so did the decline, with the total market cap decreasing, due to Bitcoin fall, while Ethereum made a new ATH a month and a week from the subpoena being received.
However, their selling and other events are dropping the price more quickly than anticipated, so more USDT is issued to keep the price propped up until they've eliminated their exposure.
On Jan 23rd, the most recent issuing of USDT takes place.
on Jan 24th, Bitfinex adds ETH pairs for everything, the day after their last issuing of USDT.
On Jan 25th, an article states that Zhao Dong and Lao Mao say they've seen Bitfinex's account of ~$3 billion USD.
On Jan 28th, Bitcoin begins falling again.
On Jan 30th, a Bloomberg article written by Matthew Leising makes the subpoena publicly known.
No further USDT is issued and the prices continues to fall.
On Feb 2nd (the day of this posting), a local bottom is hit and there is a very quick upwards recovery for a few hours.
iFinex may no longer be propping/pumping up the price, at least temporarily.
They may or may not still be selling.
From Here On
Have they managed to eliminate all their exposure and now have complete 1:1 backing for USDT?
If not, how much how more do they need to sell?
Are they now without personal concern about the price and will be content for now with their commission fees?
Will they now allow the market to discover the correct price for each crypto as they would be without iFinex unduly distorting the market, or will they continue their alleged ways?
Now that iFinex has eliminated their shortfall they can legitimately show to everyone that their finances are completely as they should be.
This coupled with the Friedman report allegedly showing that nothing was ever improper in the past provides the illusion that there weren't ever any problems and that all doubters and critics were wrong.
Stats/Dates/Prices/Events
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Total Market Cap: ~375 billion.
Total Market Cap ATH, Jan 7th (~30 days/ 1 month from subpoena): ~831 billion
Total USDT (omni), Dec 6th: 845 million.
Total USDT (omni), Jan 7th: 1.5 billion
Total USDT (omni) high, Jan 23rd: 2.25 billion
USDT Issued after subpoena received, Dec 6th - Jan 23rd: 1.405 billion
GDAX Prices (highest volume & liquidity of USD pairs without USDT):
All times and prices are from using the 1D chart on GDAX, CST time.
Bitcoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 11,718.40
Bitcoin Dec 7th High: 19,528.07
Litecoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 100.01
Litecoin Dec 11th ATH: 420.00
Ethereum Dec 6th Opening Price: 432.48
Ethereum Dec 18th High: 874.34
Ethereum Jan 13th ATH: 1419.96
Links:
http://www.tetherreport.com/
https://news.bitcoin.com/vouching-bitfinex-and-tethers-bank-accounts-hold-nearly-3-billion-usd/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/crypto-exchange-bitfinex-tether-said-to-get-subpoenaed-by-cftc
https://twitter.com/bitfinexed/status/941694580956811264
http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL
https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Final-Tether-Consulting-Report-9-15-17_Redacted.pdf
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTAeeZ0grT85UJ2ilerQhNVA4cr0_IMo9HsOmefjeWGIxwOqXeKyMoetBO8T2W_z-4pxwj57XfccpAl/pubhtml
I consider this the benefit of the doubt / charitable scenario.
The information presented here is circumstantial.
For statistical analysis, look at the Tether Report, linked at the bottom.
No USDT was issued after this report was made public.
The previous day, USDT had been issued.
I am not claiming Tether/Bitfinex were solely responsible for all of this.
All exchanges that have USDT pairs are complicit.
Anyone who transacted in USDT pairs is also complicit.
Most everyone involved has at least indirectly enabled Tether and financially benefited from them in some way.
Those who've made gains anyway.
There are surely many other entities that were, are, and will be manipulating the market.
This is almost certainly very simplified and reductive as well.
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Around Dec 15th, Chris Ellis, a Bitfinex employee, removed the warrant canaries from their twitter account.
Henceforth referred singularly to as iFinex, the parent company for Bitfinex that has same principals as Tether.
iFinex knew that providing information at that time would end very badly for them.
Feeling cornered with no other escape, iFinex decided they didn't have any choice except to acquire the necessary USD to make their problems go away.
How to do so though?
At current prices, there didn't seem to be any way that they would be to extract the required amount without destroying market confidence and their long term prospects.
Even if they do so, they might not be able to get enough.
A huge decrease from a much higher number, even if it's the same percent, seems like less as it's still so high.
As such, it was decided to pump the price by issuing more and more USDT.
The initial effect is immediate:
Bitcoin nearly doubles within 24 hours of receiving the subpoena.
Litecoin more than quadruples in ~5 days.
Ethereum doubles in ~11 days.
30 Days and 30 Nights of Pumping
Basically all crypto are overall pumping, an almost non-stop crescendo until an apex is reached at ~831 billion total market cap on Jan 7th, ~30 days after receiving the subpoena.
This monthly increase was the second largest ever total market cap increase, 375 billion to ~831, though only a third of the monthly increase from November to December 2013.
Afterwards, the selling begins to eliminate their liability, exposure, and quite possibly make a lot of profit.
The selling had begun and so did the decline, with the total market cap decreasing, due to Bitcoin fall, while Ethereum made a new ATH a month and a week from the subpoena being received.
However, their selling and other events are dropping the price more quickly than anticipated, so more USDT is issued to keep the price propped up until they've eliminated their exposure.
On Jan 23rd, the most recent issuing of USDT takes place.
on Jan 24th, Bitfinex adds ETH pairs for everything, the day after their last issuing of USDT.
On Jan 25th, an article states that Zhao Dong and Lao Mao say they've seen Bitfinex's account of ~$3 billion USD.
On Jan 28th, Bitcoin begins falling again.
On Jan 30th, a Bloomberg article written by Matthew Leising makes the subpoena publicly known.
No further USDT is issued and the prices continues to fall.
On Feb 2nd (the day of this posting), a local bottom is hit and there is a very quick upwards recovery for a few hours.
iFinex may no longer be propping/pumping up the price, at least temporarily.
They may or may not still be selling.
From Here On
Have they managed to eliminate all their exposure and now have complete 1:1 backing for USDT?
If not, how much how more do they need to sell?
Are they now without personal concern about the price and will be content for now with their commission fees?
Will they now allow the market to discover the correct price for each crypto as they would be without iFinex unduly distorting the market, or will they continue their alleged ways?
Now that iFinex has eliminated their shortfall they can legitimately show to everyone that their finances are completely as they should be.
This coupled with the Friedman report allegedly showing that nothing was ever improper in the past provides the illusion that there weren't ever any problems and that all doubters and critics were wrong.
Stats/Dates/Prices/Events
Tether/Bitfinex received the subpoena on December 6th 2017.
Total Market Cap: ~375 billion.
Total Market Cap ATH, Jan 7th (~30 days/ 1 month from subpoena): ~831 billion
Total USDT (omni), Dec 6th: 845 million.
Total USDT (omni), Jan 7th: 1.5 billion
Total USDT (omni) high, Jan 23rd: 2.25 billion
USDT Issued after subpoena received, Dec 6th - Jan 23rd: 1.405 billion
GDAX Prices (highest volume & liquidity of USD pairs without USDT):
All times and prices are from using the 1D chart on GDAX, CST time.
Bitcoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 11,718.40
Bitcoin Dec 7th High: 19,528.07
Litecoin Dec 6th Opening Price: 100.01
Litecoin Dec 11th ATH: 420.00
Ethereum Dec 6th Opening Price: 432.48
Ethereum Dec 18th High: 874.34
Ethereum Jan 13th ATH: 1419.96
Links:
http://www.tetherreport.com/
https://news.bitcoin.com/vouching-bitfinex-and-tethers-bank-accounts-hold-nearly-3-billion-usd/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/crypto-exchange-bitfinex-tether-said-to-get-subpoenaed-by-cftc
https://twitter.com/bitfinexed/status/941694580956811264
http://omnichest.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL
https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Final-Tether-Consulting-Report-9-15-17_Redacted.pdf
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTAeeZ0grT85UJ2ilerQhNVA4cr0_IMo9HsOmefjeWGIxwOqXeKyMoetBO8T2W_z-4pxwj57XfccpAl/pubhtml
