[Test] How to beat a bookie experiment

Hi there BHW brothers. So I started a test journey on how to earn money with sports bets. I am a lifelong gambler and always check on odds in every aspect of my life. I was playing poker online, casinos and shady pub backrooms in my country for 2 decades.I was also playing blackjack and other casino games. The thing that brought me into gambling as the way of life was sport bets. I started with that as a young kid. Losing, winning was my way of life since then. The feeling of failure was as intense as the feeling of victory. Now I even dont know if I earned or lost money if I put it altogether. One thing I got from this is the strong sense of analytics. It might be an expensive lesson or not but I have it now. So lets get to the point.

Gamblers out there know about the odds. So better team is more likely to win the game right? Partly true. Lets take soccer or football(in Europe) as an example. Lets take two teams that we call A and B. The teams play a game today and the odds are 1.20 for the win of team A because it is a good team and it is their home game. Then we have a draw situation which has odds around 3.40 and win for team B that has for example odds 4.2. Most people would bet on the better team right? Yes most people do it and they win in most cases. I lost a lot of money with this method though. So what I did next was to pick sports there is no draw option like volley ball, tennis...with this I eliminated chance of loss. But still I bet on tennis player with odds 1.2 and I lost because he had a bad day or the game was rigged which is common in tennis.

So the point of this test that I started today is:

- eliminate chance of loss (picking right sports)
- invest money you dont miss if you lose
- bet on live events where you bet on team/player that has less than 1.10 odds to win

I Invested 140eur of my poker money and made 60 today out of that following these rules.

I repeat, it is just a test and maybe I am wrong...no earnings guaranteed but we will see in a few days...will keep you updated and answer questions here...

You're betting on 1/10 (odds on ) outcomes ?

So if you are betting $10 a go and you lose a bet, you need 10 winning bets just to get your initial loss back.

MisterF said:

You're betting on 1/10 (odds on ) outcomes ?

So if you are betting $10 a go and you lose a bet, you need 10 winning bets just to get your initial loss back.

Click to expand...

But if he does it frequently troughout whole day, it can be profitable...but then again its all luck i would say...

Maybe I didn't explain it good enough...you bet on the winning team that has less than 1.10 odds to win. I bet today on Turkey against Azerbaidjan in volley ball and Turkey had 1.07 odds and they only needed one set to win, so I bet 160eur on them...yes it is small winnings but if you do it a few times a day, you get some money

There's no need to test with real money. Plus, what you're doing can't even be called a test due to its low volume (a few games). Go get the historical data from Betfair and run your strategies over them. This can be mundane testing or really advanced math testing but in the end, data is what you need and they're (mostly) free.

I've actually done that many many years ago with one of their card games, where I was wondering if it's rigged or random (spoiler: it was not rigged).

jazzc said:

There's no need to test with real money. Plus, what you're doing can't even be called a test due to its low volume (a few games). Go get the historical data from Betfair and run your strategies over them. This can be mundane testing or really advanced math testing but in the end, data is what you need and they're (mostly) free.

I've actually done that many many years ago with one of their card games, where I was wondering if it's rigged or random (spoiler: it was not rigged).

Click to expand...

Thanks for the advice but I would still call it a test and a making money method. The gamblers I know never did this because you dont really make thousands of dollars but where I live if I make 50 a day, I am a rich man. And as I mentioned there is only analytics of teams, odds and avoiding sports with a draw option...maybe I am wrong, this is why I do it, to test the method. No offense.

Turboboost2 said:

Thanks for the advice but I would still call it a test and a making money method. The gamblers I know never did this because you dont really make thousands of dollars but where I live if I make 50 a day, I am a rich man. And as I mentioned there is only analytics of teams, odds and avoiding sports with a draw option...maybe I am wrong, this is why I do it, to test the method. No offense.

Click to expand...

It's your money, so it's not like I'm telling you what to do with it

The point me (and @MisterF above) are trying to convey to you is that just because the odds of loss are low per match, so are the winnings. One loss will destroy many of your wins. On average, you're going to be on the same spot in the long run. It will just feel that you're moving forward because it will take longer for you to "feel" it. That's all.

Again you are betting on live events when you bet just before bets are closed...so the risk of loss is there but it's minimized. I am sorry if I wasnt clear.

Turboboost2 said:

Again you are betting on live events when you bet just before bets are closed...so the risk of loss is there but it's minimized. I am sorry if I wasnt clear.

Click to expand...

So when you're betting on a soccer game and Real Madrid are winning 1-0 and it's the 89th minute and you lump on at decimal odds of 1.03 and in the 4th minute of injury time when the ref awards the other team a penalty and the final result is 1-1........

I was betting probably before you were an itch in your dads pants my friend.

MisterF said:

So when you're betting on a soccer game and Real Madrid are winning 1-0 and it's the 89th minute and you lump on at decimal odds of 1.03 and in the 4th minute of injury time when the ref awards the other team a penalty and the final result is 1-1........

I was betting probably before you were an itch in your dads pants my friend.

Click to expand...

I said a few times in my posts you avoid sports with a draw option...please don't insult me even if I am a newbie here and you are a moderator. Let's discuss in a friendly manner. And I also said that maybe I am wrong it is just my test.

I did this and was betting thousands of dollars at a time. turned $500 into around $22,000 in a couple years before they lowered my limits to $50 per bet lol

MMM Welding said:

I did this and was betting thousands of dollars at a time. turned $500 into around $22,000 in a couple years before they lowered my limits to $50 per bet lol

Click to expand...

I always bet on a few games together so I made the odds higher...but I never tried this before..I hope I will go your way lol

Ok of invested 144 eur I came to 286 eur in one day with this method...there are no attractive games for me left for today on the platform I am playing but 142eur in one day is not a bad result I think...will go on tomorrow with updates

Let us know how it works out in the long run, even though I cant imagine it going too well. Good luck still

You can't bit the house on the long run. Only on short period of time. The odds are not calculated out of thin air

Turboboost2 said:

I said a few times in my posts you avoid sports with a draw option...please don't insult me even if I am a newbie here and you are a moderator. Let's discuss in a friendly manner. And I also said that maybe I am wrong it is just my test.

Click to expand...

So when a tennis player pulls out of the game injured but is winning 2 games to nil and 4 sets up in the final game......

As I said earlier, it's not just as simple as lumping bets on a short priced, in play event.

You need to understand the bookies rules for each sport, bookies have different rules sometimes.

Is this @tunescool secondary account?

Good Luck mate on your journey. Just at this world cup, I made 500$ bet on Belgium which had 1.4 odds against Japan. Right after finishing the game, the first thing I did was cashed out my money and uninstalled Sportsbet lol

sus said:

Good Luck mate on your journey. Just at this world cup, I made 500$ bet on Belgium which had 1.4 odds against Japan. Right after finishing the game, the first thing I did was cashed out my money and uninstalled Sportsbet lol

Click to expand...

Good move

What is the betting amount per match?