Sudden Drop in views, threshold theory? case study?

SkeetSkeet34

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So my channel is pretty new and I've had an above average experience with my new channel. After the first few days my channel literally blew up. Everything went way too smooth and I was so happy.
On June 11th all of a sudden, from one second to another, my views DRAMATICALLY went down. No more browse feature impressions and no more suggested impressions. I was very upset because I didn't change anything at all. I continued making high quality videos and they got high CTR and retention but my videos just didnt get recommended anymore. Then after some time I remember there was this threshold theory.

Refer to this thread if you dont know what it is ---> Threshold theory

So as you can clearly see, and this is the timline of this current month, june, my views went down on Jun 11 exactly when I hit 100k views (external views obvsly do not count or adviews etc because they are not caped).

No matter how outstanding my content may be but I do not think that I will reach a lot in this month anymore. Keep in mind, my channel is brandnew and I do not claim that EVERY channel with the same amount of subs like I have currently (600) has the same 100k view threshold. But I am very certain that there is a limit for each month on how many views you can get and it renews in the next month again. It will either stay the same or will go up. Because as you can see I speedrun to 100k views within 1-2 weeks and from there my views went down. I post the same TRENDING topics and nothing happens anymore.

If you know how facebook ads work you know that you can only spend a certain amount of money each day on ads and it slowly increases after weeks. You can not start spending 1000 $ each day with a fresh new account to prevent from frauds and I am sure youtube has the same kind of system.

What do you guys think of this theory? I will keep you guys updated with my viewcount to further prove this theory. Please share all your experiences and thoughts as I am pretty new to YouTube.
Thanks for reading.
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spazlee

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Very Interesting theory and Alot of evidence there, I've encountered very similar situation but with shorts so this may be completely different compared to the normal video algorithm,

Keep us all updated, interested to see how this goes.
 

shindou90

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That would make sense, considering your channel is still pretty new. I do think that once it ages or by another factor, the cap is removed!
 

smmamz

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Good luck about your channel, I think it would be good for you to analyze your most watched videos in detail and act accordingly.
 

WaterProxy

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This is absolutely possible, and I'd argue it is the case. Susan and her little minions only want certain influencers getting all of the views while they'll let the rest get the pickings. Now obviously its not 100% for every channel or it would be too obvious. That's why learning and understand how to manipulate these algorithms can be very beneficial to bypass the final boss aka SUSAN!
Also, certain topics can be capped to a certain limit of views before the algorithm will shut it down, similar to what you've described.
For example, CallMeCarson, he was getting a crap ton of views not too long ago until he got canceled on the internet. Now he's getting far less views, BUT his engagement on his videos are insane, the same amount of engagement he had on his older videos with a load of views. This can be a clear indicator that if old miss Susan doesn't consider you a homie she can easily control the amount of views you'll reach.

to prove my point: here's of an example of Susan working her magic with JuiceWrld. rip (not my video)
 
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SkeetSkeet34

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Content upload would help regain .
I haven't had any holes in my upload schedule since my channel is not even a month old. I upload every 1-2 days.
Good luck about your channel, I think it would be good for you to analyze your most watched videos in detail and act accordingly.
Thanks, I upload very good quality and my topics are always trending, I am certain there is nothing I can do at the moment to improve my viewcount.
This is absolutely possible, and I'd argue it is the case. Susan and her little minions only want certain influencers getting all of the views while they'll let the rest get the pickings. Now obviously its not 100% for every channel or it would be too obvious. That's why learning and understand how to manipulate these algorithms can be very beneficial to bypass the final boss aka SUSAN!
Also, certain topics can be capped to a certain limit of views before the algorithm will shut it down, similar to what you've described.
For example, CallMeCarson, he was getting a crap ton of views not too long ago until he got canceled on the internet. Now he's getting far less views, BUT his engagement on his videos are insane, the same amount of engagement he had on his older videos with a load of views. This can be a clear indicator that if old miss Susan doesn't consider you a homie she can easily control the amount of views you'll reach.

to prove my point: here's of an example of Susan working her magic with JuiceWrld. rip (not my video)
Yeah it's def rigged but tbh if I can grind next month again I do not see a problem at all. I do not need to reach 1M subs in 1 month. I understand their method behind thresholding new channels to a certain level. If it doesn't imrove at all then it's gonna be lame.

Just curious if someone else had this problem and was able to gain views again after a certain period of time.
 

WaterProxy

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I haven't had any holes in my upload schedule since my channel is not even a month old. I upload every 1-2 days.

Thanks, I upload very good quality and my topics are always trending, I am certain there is nothing I can do at the moment to improve my viewcount.

Yeah it's def rigged but tbh if I can grind next month again I do not see a problem at all. I do not need to reach 1M subs in 1 month. I understand their method behind thresholding new channels to a certain level. If it doesn't imrove at all then it's gonna be lame.

Just curious if someone else had this problem and was able to gain views again after a certain period of time.
Oh you definitely will gain more views over time, the fact that you are aware and understand how the game works is what's important. That's what allows you to keep learning and push through! I'll tell you myself, yes you'll gain views after a certain period. As long as you keep a good and CTR and retention, you're doing your part.
 

SkeetSkeet34

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Oh you definitely will gain more views over time, the fact that you are aware and understand how the game works is what's important. That's what allows you to keep learning and push through! I'll tell you myself, yes you'll gain views after a certain period. As long as you keep a good and CTR and retention, you're doing your part.
Yeah thanks for the tips bro, appreciated.

Wanted to add another graph of my views dropping by 90% for the case study.
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tobycast

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Interesting, this is also currently happening in my channel. My channel blew up around May 3rd until May 20th, In that period i gained around 1m views and around 2k subs. But after May 20th, the views start to decline, from the 160k views per day (from May 20th) down to (today) 4k views per day.

I upload 1 video per day (30sec-40sec) and so that May 3rd to May 20th does NOT only base on 1 or 2 videos but all my daily video from that period gained around 50k-100k total views each.

But as I got monetized my channel, i got greedy and aimed to upload a little longer video (50sec-1:30sec but the content is the same, its just that instead of uploading 30sec video per day, I combined the video of day 1 and day 2 and make it 1min video) which i notice my retention drop from usual 70%+ to 55%+. I'm reverting my daily upload to 31sec video. The retention of my new 31sec video back to 70%+. But its still 2 days (2 video) since I revert so I don't know if it will change anything.

and btw, I read your share on PaddyVu's thread, and so i got the idea that maybe the problem in my channel is the retention, just like how you point-out how important the retention.

Does your video still maintain its 90% retention?
 

uruhakurosaki

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This is exactly what happen to my channel. Sudden blow up and then after 3 weeks viewer drops 90% without any reason. Still grinding to this day with around 40 viewers a day :(.
 

CArolineBecks

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I wish you good luck with your channel, because it sounds very interesting. Please keep us all updated, interested to see how this goes.
 

SkeetSkeet34

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Interesting, this is also currently happening in my channel. My channel blew up around May 3rd until May 20th, In that period i gained around 1m views and around 2k subs. But after May 20th, the views start to decline, from the 160k views per day (from May 20th) down to (today) 4k views per day.

I upload 1 video per day (30sec-40sec) and so that May 3rd to May 20th does NOT only base on 1 or 2 videos but all my daily video from that period gained around 50k-100k total views each.

But as I got monetized my channel, i got greedy and aimed to upload a little longer video (50sec-1:30sec but the content is the same, its just that instead of uploading 30sec video per day, I combined the video of day 1 and day 2 and make it 1min video) which i notice my retention drop from usual 70%+ to 55%+. I'm reverting my daily upload to 31sec video. The retention of my new 31sec video back to 70%+. But its still 2 days (2 video) since I revert so I don't know if it will change anything.

and btw, I read your share on PaddyVu's thread, and so i got the idea that maybe the problem in my channel is the retention, just like how you point-out how important the retention.

Does your video still maintain its 90% retention?
160k views per day to 4k views per day sounds insane. You really did well with your channel but unfortunately your views dropped like in my case. I honestly do not think that your content is the problem. Of course you have to aim for high retention but one or two bad videos should not kill your whole channel. My suggestion is to keep it up with making your shorter videos and aim for high retention until your threshold is refilled so you can blow up once again.

Yes, my retention is in most cases pretty high around 80% on 2 min videos but even if I currently hit that I still only get 20 views on new videos at the moment after 5 days.

Keep us updated here with your channel, appreciate the input.

This is exactly what happen to my channel. Sudden blow up and then after 3 weeks viewer drops 90% without any reason. Still grinding to this day with around 40 viewers a day :(.
Yeah it‘s really demotivating but we are all in the same boat and there has to be a solution. Time will tell and you should update us as soon as you notice any difference. Appreciated your share.

I wish you good luck with your channel, because it sounds very interesting. Please keep us all updated, interested to see how this goes.
Thank you and I will def keep you guys updated on a daily basis. My channel is currently at it‘s lowest with 10-20 views per hour on all videos but there is no need to panic. I am certain it will go up again.
 

SkeetSkeet34

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Update: Newest video, very trending topic. Clean editing, high retention and CTR and still no push. After 16 hours, video is at 30 views. Guess I will still have to wait until my threshold is refilled. But I want to keep the Channel alive so Im still gonna consistenly post content.
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Hello,

I am experiencing exactly the same issue.

Sorry in advance for the long post.

Brand new channel, views for all of my videos exploded after a week of (almost) daily uploads, massively pushed by recommendation-driven impressions (80-90% of views were coming from suggested videos), stayed on a high level for another week (9,5k views per 48h at its peak, which is extremely good for this niche, especially for fresh channels), then sudden, rapid decline of impressions within a few days, going from 9,5k views per 48h to 1k. Now, three weeks after the decline started, my channel seems to be at its lowest point with not even 500 views per 48h. Smells like a shadowban from miles away, if you'd ask me...

This is awfully discouraging, because I have put a lot of time, effort and energy into my videos. And I mean, plz don't get me wrong, I don't want to sound cocky or arrogant, but this is not my first YT channel and I know how HQ videos look like (hook, incentives, call to actions, NLP, eye-catchy thumbnails, fast cuts, editing, animations, modelling what works for your competition, all that stuff...).
My channel's average CTR: 10-12%; average channel AVD: 30-40% for 8-10 min long videos (average AVD for this niche is 25-30%, so my channel AVD can be considered above average). Besides: I managed to get my videos suggested by the algo with exactly these stats, so they shouldn't be the cause of this sudden drop in views.

I red about that threshold theory and some other possible explanations for getting shadowbanned by YT a few weeks ago here on this forum in another thread prior to starting my channel. So I started a completely new channel - trying to apply what I have learned about preventing catching a shadowban: created a freshly new channel on a separate gmail account, no SMM panels used, no fake views, no bots, no controversial topic, no sudden change of IP address or device, no copyright strikes, no spamming and not too many channels (this is my third channel). Uploading on average 4-5 videos per week, with a maximum of 2 or 3 days "gap" of not uploading (usually weekends). Channel is not monetized yet. As previously mentioned CTR, AVD and in addition engagement (real, not fake likes & comments) also in good shape. So, I don't know what caused this sudden drop of views. Threshold theory is the only possible explanation to me (and maybe some form of a sandbox-driven shadowban).

I was starting to think YT must have blacklisted or shadowbanned me for ... yea, exactly for what? Glad, I have found this thread, because all explanations I have heard from these smartguys on reddit, Quora, etc were this: "clearly there must be something wrong with your video's quality. you have to work on it, you need high CTR and AVD" ...and I thought "yea, no shit, Sherlock. You don't say."

But what if your CTR, AVD, etc is decent, you have done nothing (you know about) that could possibly have enraged YT's algo, but you still get shadowbanned?

For now, my channel is, suggestion-like, pretty dead. And the channel is not even 2 months old. I have been thinking about starting all over with a new one, but something tells me, this could happen to the new channel as well.

According to your theory, I should be seeing some growth on my channel again by now, because it has been almost 4 weeks since the decline started (it started exactly on 1st June), but I am afraid, my channel is permanently dead and YT is not going to give it a chance to recover and to get back to where it was. Well, if anything changes, you will be the first to know. I'll keep you updated.

Sorry for the long post.

kind regards,
D.

PS: one of my videos performed better than the rest. As a result, YT started to suggest it to a wider audience, to people from other niches and target groups, which on one hand, led to a lot of views in a short period of time (10k within 3 days), but on the other hand tanked that video's CTR (from 10% to 4.5%), however, that didn't hurt that video's AVD, strangely enough. As soon as that video's CTR went south, my whole channel's average CTR crashed and stayed on a low level for a few days. That was exactly the same day, my channel's impressions started to rapidly decline. So could that be the reason? Have you made similar observations?
channel_stats_01.png
 
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SkeetSkeet34

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Hello,

I am experiencing exactly the same issue.

Sorry in advance for the long post.

Brand new channel, views for all of my videos exploded after a week of (almost) daily uploads, massively pushed by recommendation-driven impressions (80-90% of views were coming from suggested videos), stayed on a high level for another week (9,5k views per 48h at its peak, which is extremely good for this niche, especially for fresh channels), then sudden, rapid decline of impressions within a few days, going from 9,5k views per 48h to 1k. Now, three weeks after the decline started, my channel seems to be at its lowest point with not even 500 views per 48h. Smells like a shadowban from miles away, if you'd ask me...

This is awfully discouraging, because I have put a lot of time, effort and energy into my videos. And I mean, plz don't get me wrong, I don't want to sound cocky or arrogant, but this is not my first YT channel and I know how HQ videos look like (hook, incentives, call to actions, NLP, eye-catchy thumbnails, fast cuts, editing, animations, modelling what works for your competition, all that stuff...).
My channel's average CTR: 10-12%; average channel AVD: 30-40% for 8-10 min long videos (average AVD for this niche is 25-30%, so my channel AVD can be considered above average). Besides: I managed to get my videos suggested by the algo with exactly these stats, so they shouldn't be the cause of this sudden drop in views.

I red about that threshold theory and some other possible explanations for getting shadowbanned by YT a few weeks ago here on this forum in another thread prior to starting my channel. So I started a completely new channel - trying to apply what I have learned about preventing catching a shadowban: created a freshly new channel on a separate gmail account, no SMM panels used, no fake views, no bots, no controversial topic, no sudden change of IP address or device, no copyright strikes, no spamming and not too many channels (this is my third channel). Uploading on average 4-5 videos per week, with a maximum of 2 or 3 days "gap" of not uploading (usually weekends). Channel is not monetized yet. As previously mentioned CTR, AVD and in addition engagement (real, not fake likes & comments) also in good shape. So, I don't know what caused this sudden drop of views. Threshold theory is the only possible explanation to me (and maybe some form of a sandbox-driven shadowban).

I was starting to think YT must have blacklisted or shadowbanned me for ... yea, exactly for what? Glad, I have found this thread, because all explanations I have heard from these smartguys on reddit, Quora, etc were this: "clearly there must be something wrong with your video's quality. you have to work on it, you need high CTR and AVD" ...and I thought "yea, no shit, Sherlock. You don't say."

But what if your CTR, AVD, etc is decent, you have done nothing (you know about) that could possibly have enraged YT's algo, but you still get shadowbanned?

For now, my channel is, suggestion-like, pretty dead. And the channel is not even 2 months old. I have been thinking about starting all over with a new one, but something tells me, this could happen to the new channel as well.

According to your theory, I should be seeing some growth on my channel again by now, because it has been almost 4 weeks since the decline started (it started exactly on 1st June), but I am afraid, my channel is permanently dead and YT is not going to give it a chance to recover and to get back to where it was. Well, if anything changes, you will be the first to know. I'll keep you updated.

Sorry for the long post.

kind regards,
D.

PS: one of my videos performed better than the rest. As a result, YT started to suggest it to a wider audience, to people from other niches and target groups, which on one hand, led to a lot of views in a short period of time (10k within 3 days), but on the other hand tanked that video's CTR (from 10% to 4.5%), however, that didn't hurt that video's AVD, strangely enough. As soon as that video's CTR went south, my whole channel's average CTR crashed and stayed on a low level for a few days. That was exactly the same day, my channel's impressions started to rapidly decline. So could that be the reason? Have you made similar observations?View attachment 215751
I heavily appreciate your long post and I would love to see more people giving in-depth input to this topic. Thank you for your time and sharing your experience with all of us. I enjoyed this read and I will give my opinion and thoughts on it.


As I do not have tons of experience with YouTube, I can only say so much. However, I've had a very big Instagram page with over 100k organic followers and when I was shadowbanned there it was over OBVIOUS. I posted a picture there and forgot to censor a part from a female body and BOOM. My post got taken down and I was shadowbanned for 1 month. It was no biggie for me since I knew the ins and outs of an Instagram shadowban and just stopped posting for a month and when I made my first post after a month everything went viral again. I kinda like the system because, you know you are shadowbanned because you did something wrong and the punishment only lasts for so long and you can resume with your previous performance (doesn't really hurt that much).


BUT


On YouTube, if this is a shadowban then it must be a big joke because I didn't get any copyright strikes. I never have anything explicit in my videos, thumbnails or titles, and if there is something that is explicit I am censoring it completely. My channel could be watched by kids because the content is so harmless. If they really shadowbanned me, then it's the most pathetic platform of them all, but for now I want to get this out of the possibilities because it doesn't even make sense.


I can only back that "phenomen" which you and I clearly have with some kind of threshold theory. Which, if it's true, I can understand the methods behind it. I didn't even make the smallest adjustments to my content, channel or anything and my views dropped like CRAZY. Even the videos that were viral just dropped overnight. My channel is currently at its lowest low and I do not have any motivation left to post videos. I went from 40k views in 48 hours to 578 XD. Averaging 5-10 views per hour.


Opening a new channel? Hell no, doesn't sound rational to me because


1. The same s**t could happen again.

2. I cba to put a lot of effort into a new channel just to have this same outcome again.


What is my solution? I am playing the waiting game. If I do not see any changes in the upcoming month (july) I m just gonna focus on another platform because if this is how this works, it's beyond stupid. Imagine you make money from YouTube and you lose all your viewership within a splitsecond and you go from making money to nothing. Sounds like a very unstable income to me.


If my theory is true, then there is nothing to worry about. I understand the decision behind a threshold, but I would not understand if these channels remain at this level now.


Am I mad? Nope because there is literally nothing I did wrong or I can't change. I can't force it, so that's something I am just gonna accept.

Also, what I do not understand is how I have 589 subscribers and it feels like I have 10 subscribers. and can NOBODY tell me that they do not watch my videos because my CTR and retention is always high. I would never be so delusional and not see the problems. Also, community posts are like 4-6 likes per post while other channels get 10k-20k likes per post. I would be HAPPY if my CTR and retention was LOW because then I would know that I am the problem and I need to fix my videos and stuff but that is not the case so I do not see any logical explanation in the drop in views other then the threshold theory. If anyone else has another theory i am all open ears but do not tell me my videos suck when the data clearly tells me otherwise.

Also @RandomRamenGuy your CTR and retention seems fine.40% retention for a 8 minute video is very good so can nobody tell you your videos suck.

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mecalec13

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it wont recover next mounth or whatever once the recommend doesnt show up again u can forget the channel :))) at least if gaming is the niche i had over 10 channels who made like 2-3 milions per video and in like 3-4 weeks died :))) its not shadow ban or whatever this is how youtube works :)))
 
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