- Aug 17, 2025
- 118
- 13
Repo is the real risk. Bitcoin never decouples from equity liquidity. If a repo wobble hits stocks, BTC takes the first punch—then likely leads the rebound once policymakers open the taps.
Flows help, but don’t save you. Spot ETFs pulled in >$1B BTC and ~$200M ETH last week. Big wallets slowed selling since late September; short-term holders already puked in Aug–Sep. Good backdrop—until liquidity thins.
Tape is coiled, not safe. Bollinger Bands are the tightest in ages. We’ve got a possible triple-top and a chunky weekly bearish divergence—the same vibe that ended 2021. Meanwhile FOMO is back and leveraged longs are near cycle highs. That combo snaps hard when it snaps.
My stance. I sold all crypto in August and built shorts in the 115–125k “banana zone,” avg ~119.9k. Plan is simple: hold, let liquidity do the talking.
If I’m wrong short-term. A clean break and hold above 125k? I’ll sit in red for days/weeks if needed. Blow-offs retrace; I’m playing the bigger arc, not the next candle.
What I’m watching. Funding and basis (perps leading spot = fragile), ETF flow persistence, and—most of all—repo/funding stress. If we get a repo scare: down first, then the liquidity wave. That’s where I’ll flip from defense to offense.
Until then, I’m staying patient. Tea in hand. No hero trades.
Not financial advice.
Flows help, but don’t save you. Spot ETFs pulled in >$1B BTC and ~$200M ETH last week. Big wallets slowed selling since late September; short-term holders already puked in Aug–Sep. Good backdrop—until liquidity thins.
Tape is coiled, not safe. Bollinger Bands are the tightest in ages. We’ve got a possible triple-top and a chunky weekly bearish divergence—the same vibe that ended 2021. Meanwhile FOMO is back and leveraged longs are near cycle highs. That combo snaps hard when it snaps.
My stance. I sold all crypto in August and built shorts in the 115–125k “banana zone,” avg ~119.9k. Plan is simple: hold, let liquidity do the talking.
If I’m wrong short-term. A clean break and hold above 125k? I’ll sit in red for days/weeks if needed. Blow-offs retrace; I’m playing the bigger arc, not the next candle.
What I’m watching. Funding and basis (perps leading spot = fragile), ETF flow persistence, and—most of all—repo/funding stress. If we get a repo scare: down first, then the liquidity wave. That’s where I’ll flip from defense to offense.
Until then, I’m staying patient. Tea in hand. No hero trades.
Not financial advice.