Rampant Crypto Misinformation x2

MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Don't even look at this (in my opinion). It's a useless measure of value, especially for bitcoin.

I saw this article earlier: https://www.ccn.com/600-billion-cryptocurrencies-now-worth-amazon/ (sorry about all the ads).

"$600 Billion: Cryptocurrencies Now Worth More than Amazon"

No they aren't. That's not even a valid measure.

Comparing a store of value to a corporation's valuation is not a comparison with any value. They are completely different things. Assuming that cryptos are "currencies" (which they aren't), that would be the equivalent of comparing the market cap of the Icelandic Krona to the valuation of Ikea. Why would that be valid?

Even more bothersome than that is these market caps not subtracting out coins that will never be recoverable, which for Bitcoin alone would negate http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/. Stocks don't do that.

Just don't. They aren't the same, they aren't supposed to be the same.

[HEDGE FUND] HAS 50% OF THEIR FUND IN BITCOINS!

Hedge fund managers aren't going to put that much risk into a portfolio of any inherent value. Any hedge fund that is now 50% crypto by dollar amounts is that way due to the inflationary rise of coin value.

If a fund manager started last year with $10 million in COIN A and $90 million in other stocks, and the stocks doubled and COIN A grew 18x, that's 50% of a fund in crypto, even if it only started at 10%.

Please don't assume when you see these article titles that these hedge fund managers are putting as much faith into crypto as what is being advertised.

Yes, it's awesome that crypto gains have eclipsed the shit out of most stocks in 2017, but don't miss the forest for the trees.

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My views on crypto haven't changed. I still think it's a bubble that will burst at any time. No clue when, don't care when. I'm super happy some of you guys are making serious bank, though (once you cash out, that is). Well deserved with the risks taken.

I'm also enthralled with the potential and current utilization of blockchain. It will be around long after all these coins drop to nothing and become useless.

It has been a while since I played devil's advocate in this section. Carry on.

I dont know what you're talking about. All you need to bank in Crypto is to mortage your house, put all your money in BTC and cross your fingers. Some idiot flagged me before, like I'm trolling, but people are doing this all over the United States. They'll pay their mortgage off in no time!

There is a lot of misinformation, often used on purpose to pump / make people dump ( Unilad FB page for example)

Personally, my main gamble is about BTC (and of consequence all other cryptos) will not burst in the first half 2018.
So I have only 6 months left to bank the shit out from them

I don't know what to believe anymore

some useful information thanks.

Sherbert Hoover said:

MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Don't even look at this (in my opinion). It's a useless measure of value, especially for bitcoin.

I saw this article earlier: https://www.ccn.com/600-billion-cryptocurrencies-now-worth-amazon/ (sorry about all the ads).

"$600 Billion: Cryptocurrencies Now Worth More than Amazon"

No they aren't. That's not even a valid measure.

Comparing a store of value to a corporation's valuation is not a comparison with any value. They are completely different things. Assuming that cryptos are "currencies" (which they aren't), that would be the equivalent of comparing the market cap of the Icelandic Krona to the valuation of Ikea. Why would that be valid?

Even more bothersome than that is these market caps not subtracting out coins that will never be recoverable, which for Bitcoin alone would negate http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/. Stocks don't do that.

Just don't. They aren't the same, they aren't supposed to be the same.

[HEDGE FUND] HAS 50% OF THEIR FUND IN BITCOINS!

Hedge fund managers aren't going to put that much risk into a portfolio of any inherent value. Any hedge fund that is now 50% crypto by dollar amounts is that way due to the inflationary rise of coin value.

If a fund manager started last year with $10 million in COIN A and $90 million in other stocks, and the stocks doubled and COIN A grew 18x, that's 50% of a fund in crypto, even if it only started at 10%.

Please don't assume when you see these article titles that these hedge fund managers are putting as much faith into crypto as what is being advertised.

Yes, it's awesome that crypto gains have eclipsed the shit out of most stocks in 2017, but don't miss the forest for the trees.

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My views on crypto haven't changed. I still think it's a bubble that will burst at any time. No clue when, don't care when. I'm super happy some of you guys are making serious bank, though (once you cash out, that is). Well deserved with the risks taken.

I'm also enthralled with the potential and current utilization of blockchain. It will be around long after all these coins drop to nothing and become useless.

It has been a while since I played devil's advocate in this section. Carry on.

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This is why you are wrong @Sherbert Hoover https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/inside-the-big-plan-to-make-ethereum-go-mainstream?

One day the internet will be blockchain built on these platforms.

God, people these days.

Sherbert Hoover said:

My views on crypto haven't changed. I still think it's a bubble that will burst at any time. No clue when, don't care when. I'm super happy some of you guys are making serious bank, though (once you cash out, that is). Well deserved with the risks taken.

I'm also enthralled with the potential and current utilization of blockchain. It will be around long after all these coins drop to nothing and become useless.

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I believe quite the same. When bitcoin will crash, all other coins will suffer too. Still there are some great projects out there that imo will go strong even when bitcoin will be history. But right now everything is exchanged with Bitcoin and most often not fiat. In addition, the masses are slowly start to learn about cryptocurrencies. Even my mom talked to me about it lately and she is barely able to use her smartphone to call someone. As soon as the bitcoin crashes, all these people that are not interested in the tech behind or maybe even lost money because they are entering the game late will loose their trust for years to come. I speculate on a few coins too (limiting myself to a few percent of my net worth - sadly a quite small amount) and I'll soon switch to a few coins that have a nice technology and wait. I might make some money next year or loose it all but that's a calculated risk I'm willing to take. I'm happy for everybody who made a killing this year but happy with the few percents my stocks returned too. I actually wanted to come to some conclusion but I wrote this post over 15 minutes and with 3 breaks in between so I'm sorry for everybody who had to read this basically pointless block of text

Try removing $600BN worth of coins, but mainly this will grow to $5-10TN before anything huge happens.

@Sherbert Hoover but you had like $4 in ethereum don't you ?

SensualTyrannosaurus said:

I dont know what you're talking about. All you need to bank in Crypto is to mortage your house, put all your money in BTC and cross your fingers. Some idiot flagged me before, like I'm trolling, but people are doing this all over the United States. They'll pay their mortgage off in no time!

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dont forget to sell your kidneys either.

Skyebug77 said:

This is why you are wrong @Sherbert Hoover https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/inside-the-big-plan-to-make-ethereum-go-mainstream?

One day the internet will be blockchain built on these platforms.

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That is a whole lot of speculation.

This week, Bloomberg's Matthew Leising and Brad Stone speak to Zamfir about his big dreams for Ethereum and how his project (codenamed Casper) could pave the way for masses of ordinary internet users to join in the craze.

issorc said:

I believe quite the same. When bitcoin will crash, all other coins will suffer too. Still there are some great projects out there that imo will go strong even when bitcoin will be history. But right now everything is exchanged with Bitcoin and most often not fiat. In addition, the masses are slowly start to learn about cryptocurrencies. Even my mom talked to me about it lately and she is barely able to use her smartphone to call someone. As soon as the bitcoin crashes, all these people that are not interested in the tech behind or maybe even lost money because they are entering the game late will loose their trust for years to come. I speculate on a few coins too (limiting myself to a few percent of my net worth - sadly a quite small amount) and I'll soon switch to a few coins that have a nice technology and wait. I might make some money next year or loose it all but that's a calculated risk I'm willing to take. I'm happy for everybody who made a killing this year but happy with the few percents my stocks returned too. I actually wanted to come to some conclusion but I wrote this post over 15 minutes and with 3 breaks in between so I'm sorry for everybody who had to read this basically pointless block of text

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As part of my content writing services over the past several months, I have had the opportunity to write a few coin whitepapers for members here. I am genuinely surprised at the ingenuity that they have in their products. All of them are coins that I would invest in if they end up going live. We have some innovative people here.

I'm in the same boat as you, except I sold off all my crypto assets a little while back. If the normal-people market hadn't done so great this past year, I'd be bitter as hell, but instead I'm super happy people are banking, and hope they have the sense to get out when things take a turn.

avilux said:

Try removing $600BN worth of coins, but mainly this will grow to $5-10TN before anything huge happens.

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No.

tux said:

@Sherbert Hoover but you had like $4 in ethereum don't you ?

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I did some dabbling in BTC, ETH, and LTC, got out, made some money, was happy about it, and gave my last bit of crypto to a member on here in need.

Sherbert Hoover said:

That is a whole lot of speculation.



I did some dabbling in BTC, ETH, and LTC, got out, made some money, was happy about it, and gave my last bit of crypto to a member on here in need.

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that's really nice of you

Crypto like Bitcoin is only part of the story.
Blockchain is about freedom, power to the people.
Of course there's a battle going on behind the scenes.
Banks and governments aren't going to let this happen just like that.

You're doing a good job. Write, write, write! Make people aware.

Im goin to the moon!

Classic Nocoin Post.

All I know is I'm making mad bank from all this speculative hype. MONERO BUY BUY BUY

This is wrong. Sure, you cannot compare market cap to a company’s MK, but it is a useful for discussing its future usefulness as a currency, which it is designed to be. It doesn’t matter if it is currently used as an investment over form of trade, because that’s their end goal.

Market cap is incredibly important for this reason and should be seen more as a comparison to GDP etc.

Similarly, supply & total supply are important for discussing a coin’s long term usefulness.

You can’t replace the $ or £ with a currency that only has $400bn in circulation (& would likely crash if volume = circulation) and a coin can’t be priced practically (practically as in spending 0.01 coin on something not 0.0000001) if the supply is in the millions.

Personally, the total supply (in the next 2-3 years) needs to be no less than 2,000,000,000 and preferably closer to 10bn.

It seems to me that you have the same opinion of all crypto based on Bitcoin. There are hundreds more and pretty much every problem with Bitcoin & the Blockchain is solved elsewhere yet you seem to class them as the same.

Like I said before, don’t tar everything with the same brush.

Oh, by the way, I’m pretty sure there are hedge funds that do have 50% in BTC (when they bought in) and I remember reading an article that said there are actually 40 something hedge funds trading solely in crypto. (Don’t quote me on that) so how do you define a hedge? Do they just have to invest in things you like or they’re not classed as one? Have a certain amount of money invested?

elavmunretea said:

This is wrong. Sure, you cannot compare market cap to a company’s MK, but it is a useful for discussing its future usefulness as a currency, which it is designed to be. It doesn’t matter if it is currently used as an investment over form of trade, because that’s their end goal.

Market cap is incredibly important for this reason and should be seen more as a comparison to GDP etc.

Similarly, supply & total supply are important for discussing a coin’s long term usefulness.

You can’t replace the $ or £ with a currency that only has $400bn in circulation (& would likely crash if volume = circulation) and a coin can’t be priced practically (practically as in spending 0.01 coin on something not 0.0000001) if the supply is in the millions.

Personally, the total supply (in the next 2-3 years) needs to be no less than 2,000,000,000 and preferably closer to 10bn.

It seems to me that you have the same opinion of all crypto based on Bitcoin. There are hundreds more and pretty much every problem with Bitcoin & the Blockchain is solved elsewhere yet you seem to class them as the same.

Like I said before, don’t tar everything with the same brush.

Oh, by the way, I’m pretty sure there are hedge funds that do have 50% in BTC (when they bought in) and I remember reading an article that said there are actually 40 something hedge funds trading solely in crypto. (Don’t quote me on that) so how do you define a hedge? Do they just have to invest in things you like or they’re not classed as one? Have a certain amount of money invested?

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Fair points. I don't think we will ever really see eye to eye on crypto or Mac vs. PC, but solid points. I stand by market cap being a shit indicator or comparison, though.

Market cap of a coin is the current value in US dollars times the number of coins in circulation. Market cap of a company is the equity value of the business. It's the amount that investors are willing to fork over for future profits. Coins aren't a business. Coins have no profits in themselves.

Comparing market cap of a coin to market cap of a company is pandering to the crypto circlejerk, period. If you are comparing a cryptocurrency to a bank for example, the value should be compared to the bank's total assets. So Bank of America has a $300 billion market cap right now, roughly. But has $2.2 trillion in total assets. Vanguard, the investing choice I like to push, has $3.8 trillion in total assets. That is the value of that company, not its market cap.

Cryptocurrency will never replace the US dollar. While US dollars in circulation are only around $1.6 trillion (effectively its "market cap"), the factors that need to be taken into account push this number way up.

M3 money supply is a stronger comparison of the dollar to the market cap of a crypto. M3 is more about the dollar being a store of value, and is currently valued at over $13.7 trillion as of September (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S).

But what about the total asset mix of the US economy? That's $270 trillion last year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States and https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf).

The more that Bitcoin and other lower-value cryptocurrencies fluctuate and swing wildly, the less likely the concept is at becoming a medium of exchange on a scale you want it to be. Bitcoin acceptance in the real world, outside this sheltered little bubble of charts and graphs and speculations and HODL, is painfully low, even with its explosive growth the past few months.

It's not a fiat currency.
It's not a currency at all.
It's not a transactional method.

It is an investment vehicle, and that's it. A speculative asset. The more coin-holders hold, the more that this will be true.

For bitcoin to be a "currency", it's KPI would be mass adoption of product creators and service providers. The volatility of ALL coins throws a massive wrench in that happening. Everyone is getting so greedy with pump and dump schemes that they are forgetting what the goal is. Volatility is a killer for merchant utilization, and I doubt merchants are wanting to immediately sell after every transaction to get their money in actual money form, and not fake currency. But guess what? Even if they did that, it would fuck the entire concept of cryptocurrencies being "currencies".

If a merchant sells me one [X unit] for $16,000 and call it one [X coin], and then the value of [X coin] drops 50%, the merchant has lost $8,000. On the flip side, if the merchant invests in one [X coin] for $8,000 worth of [X unit], with plans to sell it for $16,000 in the future, and then discovers that the original one [X unit] would have been worth $32,000, they be much better off never spending their [X unit at all].

Deflation is the killer of production. Merchants will never be on board with ANYTHING on a mass scale outside of this little bubble of charts and graphs and speculations until the volatility factor calms down. But if the volatility factor calms down, all the greedy little moneygrubbing fuckers who have jumped on board the sinking ship in the hopes of a quick profit would migrate away.

Crypto is a catch 22. And there are extremists on all sides. There's the people like you, Harry, who close your eyes to anything that isn't pro-crypto and plug your ears and scream EVERYTHING IS FINE LALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU. Then there is people like me, who close my eyes to anything that isn't anti-crypto and plug my ears and scream that the sky is falling. We both get hostile about our positions, and right now you're soaring on massive profits.

Don't let that blind you to the fact that, no matter how you package or brand a coin, or what the white paper says it's going to do, all that is happening is decentralized pump and dump. And I have yet to see anything that argues against that with legitimate points besides "You just hate it because you didn't make as much money as me."

You took the time to educate yourself. Most others didn't. All you have to do to see that is look at the threads people are starting in this section.

Sherbert Hoover said:

Market cap of a coin is the current value in US dollars times the number of coins in circulation. Market cap of a company is the equity value of the business. It's the amount that investors are willing to fork over for future profits. Coins aren't a business. Coins have no profits in themselves.

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That's not exactly true, though. ICO's are effectively IPOs, where the team raises the funds they "need" to launch it. There are many conceptual coins that do have for-profit elements like contracts & internal mining.

Sherbert Hoover said:

Comparing market cap of a coin to market cap of a company is pandering to the crypto circlejerk, period. If you are comparing a cryptocurrency to a bank for example, the value should be compared to the bank's total assets. So Bank of America has a $300 billion market cap right now, roughly. But has $2.2 trillion in total assets

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That's true, and that's why I have said it numerous times on the forum. While I have seen a lot of people sharing that stupid graphic saying "BTC is the biggest bank with no money, AirBnb is the biggest landlord with no property etc" there are far more people who point out that Bitcoin comes nowhere near the biggest bank and is itself not a bank.

Sherbert Hoover said:

But what about the total asset mix of the US economy? That's $270 trillion last year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States and https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf).

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This is easily the biggest issue I have with the US system. I guarantee if you ask anyone on the street how the banking system actually works, no more than one person will be able to tell you. What actually happens when you send money online? How does it get from your coins to your online bank to another bank thousands of miles away instantly? How do you know that the $ amount displayed on your screen is the real value? What if the bank lends your money to someone buying a house, and then you want to withdraw it all, who do they then borrow it from? What if everyone wants their money in cash at once? Is there even enough cash for that to be possible?

The rate that the government is printing money is incredible and no one seems to care. Its increase could easily be confused for Bitcoin's price is. Yet "Bitcoin is a bubble, bow down to the all mighty dollar"


Granted, the above chart shows all money stored, and not just the money available to spend, but I think that makes it 100x worse. The idea that there are trillions of dollars unaccounted for is scary. Especially when the country is spending billions every day paying interest on its "debts." You'll probably argue that they are printing more to account for the dollar's decreasing value, but do you not think to some extent it is decreasing because of this?

Like I say, I don't believe Bitcoin is the best alternative out there, but the fact that it is limited in supply (Albeit too small to be usable, but the idea is nice) prevents this happening. Imagine if the $ started increasing 40%, 20%, 60% per day like Cryptocurrencies have. What do you think the people at the very top would do with the money? Pay off the debt? Increase the healthcare & education budgets so that they are actually more than the "defence" budget for once? Or would they pocket it? Would you ever know, is the real question.

Sherbert Hoover said:

It's not a fiat currency.
It's not a currency at all.
It's not a transactional method.

It is an investment vehicle, and that's it. A speculative asset. The more coin-holders hold, the more that this will be true.

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This is the biggest problem I have with your statement. Yes, Bitcoin is primarily used as an investment currently, but that's not what it was designed for and what it used to be used for. I used to spend almost all of my Bitcoin as a currency because that's what I saw it as, not as a way to make money.



Know what this is? It's a gold coin. Used as a CURRENCY for hundreds of years. Picked over other metals like silver, because it tarnished easily, as well as it being rare.



Know what this is? The exact same thing, yet in the form of massive, heavy bricks. They can't be easily broken down into usable amounts, shipped around the world instantly or safely stored. So why did people start making massive lumps of the stuff and, more importantly, hoarding thousands of them on big shelves underground?

Because the price shot up. It was unwise to use the stuff as a currency, so people started storing it and it eventually became obsolete.

So is gold a currency or investment? It originally started as a currency and for no reason other than it was rare it rose in price, so did that stop is being a currency? How much did one bar have to be worth for it to no longer be a currency?

http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp

What has changed between 1792 and 2017 to make Gold shoot up from a steady $19.39 to ~$1200?

Surely by your very logic Gold is a bubble? Being scarce and long-lasting clearly isn't important at all, seeing as the Gov decided to adopt an incredibly delicate paper currency that they could print infinite amounts of, instead. It's intrinsic value as a currency was lost years ago, yet the price carried on going up.

Sherbert Hoover said:

There's the people like you, Harry, who close your eyes to anything that isn't pro-crypto and plug your ears and scream EVERYTHING IS FINE LALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU

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This is absurd. Did you read my BTC Bubble or Future thread? I list, in much more detail & accuracy, the currencies main problems. I am the farthest thing from a "Crypto is good, how dare you say anything other" twat and I am intelligent enough to recognise that there are issues, but also that the whole industry doesn't revolve around Bitcoin.

I personally think that's a far more fair approach than "Bitcoin is a bubble. 1 economist in the world agrees & I predict, through inapplicable past cases of a flower from the 1800s, that the people who hold most of the money will get sick & tired of making incredible returns on their money, suddenly decide to sell all of their Bitcoin to buyers that don't exist & then the price will crash down to 0. The currency will cease to exist, never recover. No, the many, many billionaires & hedge funds that have money in it will not buy more, they will instead accept the fact that the "currency" has gone from $17k to $0 and not do anything at all to counteract the effect.

No, I have no proof other than some guys who graduated uni (makes them credible, duhhh) said so and it happened with flowers before. But don't worry, I'll instil my opinion as if it is fact on everyone who presents reasonable debate & questions my perfect logic"

If you used that kind of neophobic logic with everything in life, nothing would ever get done. Why did people start using the $ instead of gold? Why would you switch from micro-usb to USB Type C?

Why would you ever change anything when there is an immediate risk? Because without committing to it, you won't get it done. "Bitcoin isn't a currency because you can't spend it anywhere" is a negative statement that does nothing to help anything. Things take time to be adopted & as time goes on more and more shops etc will accept Crypto. Maybe not Bitcoin, but BTC doesn't = Crypto for the 10000000th time.