pmax vs standard shopping in Q4 — is anyone else seeing this split?

3xROAS

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been running a pretty consistent ecom campaign for about 8 months, selling outdoor gear, had things dialed in around $150-200/day with a solid 4.2x ROAS. decided to scale since Q4 is coming and pushed budgets to $350/day about 3 weeks ago.
first week was fine, maybe slight dip to 3.8x which i expected. but now week 3 and im sitting at 2.9x and cant figure out what changed. same creatives, same bidding strategy (tROAS at 400%), same audiences. conversion rate is actually pretty similar when i look at it, the issue seems to be google is just finding way more expensive clicks now.
checked auction insights and there are 2-3 new competitors thso i run google ads for a few ecom brands and every Q4 i go back and forth on this. this year i split tested pmax vs standard shopping on the same product catalog across 2 accounts, similar spend, similar margins. standard shopping has been consistently pulling a better ROAS by like 15-20% but pmax is driving way more new customer acquisition according to the reports anyway.

the thing is i dont fully trust pmaxs attribution. the new customer conversion values feel inflated to me but i cant prove it. and every agency bro on linkedin is screaming pmax is the future while my actual account data keeps telling a different story.

curious if anyone has found a setup that actually works well together, like using pmax for top of funnel and standard shopping to capture the bottom, or if youre just going all in on one. also wondering if the pmax results vary a lot depending on the niche because my two accounts are in pretty different verticals and the gap between them is huge.

whats your current structure going into the holiday push?at werent showing up before so thats maybe part of it, but doesnt fully explain the drop imo. CPC went from avg $1.40 to $2.10 which is significant over that volume.
wondering if anyone else hit this kind of wall at a specific budget threshold where smart bidding just kinda breaks down and starts grabbing junk tra
 
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