My bids / position make no sense

My account is about 6 years old, and I have other's that are 13 years old so I've been around the block..

The way things are working now makes no sense. I have a keyword that I have bid for $11.60. Google says I need to bid $26.63 as est. first place, Has me showing as "Eligible Limited" Says my ad rank is low ( the keyword matches 100% what we do, what my ads say, used in alt tags, and is plastered all over the landing page and setup as an H1.) It claims I need to bid $15.30 to even to even be on the first page. However with all this being said it shows me as being in the top position 100%, and being absolute top 100%. Can anyone explain how this makes any sense?

I have 6 active accounts right now, and what I've described above is conducive to all them. I have some where it says the est. top bid is over $49. I've been in this field for 28+ years, there no way "anyone" could afford $49 a click for all the tire kickers we get asking about our service. Furthermore on that keyword I show hitting top spot about 30% of time with the keyword bid around $7. Thank you.

Google Ads' estimated bid reflects competition and Quality Score, so even if you're in the top spot, your bid might not align with the estimated costs due to auction dynamics.

It seems like Google's estimates are based on competition and ad quality, but your actual performance is strong, showing that your bid is still effective even if the system suggests higher bids.

Google’s bidding estimates can be all over the place your ad rank and quality score are just as important as the bid itself, so even with lower bids, if your ads are strong, you can still show up in top spots. Keep an eye on performance rather than just the numbers!