I predict that soon page 1 of google will just be paid ads...
I would like to debunk this mind set everyone is saying and thinking. Page 1 of Google is not some static place. Its an ever changing dynamic result that is infinite in occurrences. There are an infinite amount of key phrases that are searched and most of the searches are unique.
"20 to 25% of the queries we see today, we have never seen before" -
Ubi Manber- Google's VP of Engineering
There is no way Google could ever account for every search and still provide relevant results to its users. While I do agree that highly competitive searches may be dominated by Adwords Ads, Google Products and Google Map listings, there is no way Google can account for any significant amount of search.
The bottom line is your form of monetization. It is vital to find niches that have a way for you to make money. For example, about 7 years ago ADT started an aggressive affiliate program. They where paying $225 per sold system. They provided their affiliates with a tracking form and or a tracked landing page (through a 3rd party affiliate network). There where many ways in the beginning t"o make tons of cash. The keywords like "home security system" or the few hundred others were only being SEO'd for by a handful of professionals. In the first year or two of the program we made a ton of money. But then the competition increased, and we had to y"expand our targeted keywords to ones that were not as competitive. So we started to game for Geo searches..."any city home security" And that worked very well for another couple of years. But in the past few years the amount of competition has exploded for the Home Security niche. No matter what your tactics are, it is very hard to get the traffic from this vertical because there is just too many people all gaming for the same keywords.
The lesson learned is that finding a niche is imperative to making money online. Not only do you have to find a niche, you have to find a niche that pays. Im sure I could dominate for pink sprockets, but if there is not a company or product I can push, it is useless.
So no matter what Google does with Search, if you find or have a niche that pays, you will be fine. I can tell you that if you are doing something with Clickbank, amazon, dating, education or similar mainstream affiliate programs you will have a ton of competition. This includes all the paid search partners that Google has that will most likely have a big presence in these highly competitive verticals.
I do hope Google makes some big changes and cleans up some search. There is still a ton of spam in the results and I wish they could figure out how to provide more relevant results. Also, I LOVE the "sky is falling" and "SEO is Dead" talk. We need to thin out the heard and make room for the professionals.