Not using any tools, the first thing that I would do is type into google - allintitle: keyword
This will give you how many websites are using that keyword phrase in their title and how much competition you have for that keyword - title competition.
Second do a search for that keyword in google - "keyword" if this number is low that is good. The lower the better.
Third, when using google keyword tool you want the competition to be high. The higher the competition the more advertisers that there are for that keyword.
I highly suggest you get Market Samurai. There is quite a few free copies here.
Then you need to check the backlinks of the competition. A squidoo page with great SEO and Backlinks is going to be very difficult to out rank, because squidoo is an authority site and building an authority page on that site is quite useful.
Also, on an ending note, if you can find an exact match .com domain, then usually, not always, but usually the keyword would be relatively easy to rank for. This is not knowing the competition at all though.