If shipment is late, will I win an DNC case still?

oatmeal

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Here's a fishy case.

One of my buyer's ordered a product from me and the shipment was delayed because my dropshipper didn't have it in stock. I just shipped the item out yesterday with tracking number and messaged the buyer (my own initiative) that it was on it's way and guaranteed to arrive within the next 7 to 10 days with full tracking.

This morning, I find out that buyer opened a case as item not received and said since it had long past the estimated/expected date of delivery and she still didn't have it, she wanted a refund.

I'm scratching my head because I just messaged her the day before telling her clearly that the shipment is on its way and it will arrive within the next 10 days or so. Is she trying to scam me by opening a case and knowing that she can escalate it in 4 days and still won't have her package delivered so that when ebay reviews the case and sees the tracking, they'll see that it's not delivered yet and award her a refund? Then she'll not only get her money, but she'll also the get the item because it's on the way.

In other words, does ebay favor the buyer in a DNC case if the shipment is late and past the expected delivery date even though there is full evidence in tracking that the item is on the way and WILL be delivered by a certain date? Or if I appeal the case later and show them that the item was delivered (say 4 or 5 days after ebay resolved the case in her favor, as it wasn't delivered at that time), would they overturn the decision?
 
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