How risky is this affiliate strategy

Pardon my noob and naive question, I'm very new to affiliate marketing. For some days now I have been reading and making research about affiliate marketing and how it works. I intend focusing on the sports betting nich because I have experience on sports betting. Although my affiliate strategy will be somewhat blackhat.

I read that betting affiliates do pay around 10 - 40% of the refered customer's net losses. I intend developing a strategy where I place bets then lay or Dutch same bets for guaranteed loss of around 2 - 5%. Since the affiliate payment are around 10 - 20% it can somehow offset these losses. Take for example.

I refered a customer to a bookmaker he/she signups using my affiliate link, he deposit funds, places bets on high odds and likely to loose game. I on the other hand Dutch or lay these bets for a guaranteed loss of around 2 - 5% of the staked amount. Rinse and repeat it with other bettors.

My fears are what if the affiliate company don't pay me? Or what if they are dubious and claims I broke their T&C? Lastly how dumb will this be as a strategy? I need your opinions please.

Hi, first off, the risks here should not be underestimated. Blackhat methods always carry high risk; affiliate programs may withhold payments or ban your account if they suspect you violated their terms. The “lay” or “Dutch” betting strategy to offset losses sounds logical in theory, but in practice, there’s a high chance of getting caught and flagged. Many betting companies are very strict and monitor such behaviors closely. So, it’s crucial to thoroughly read the affiliate program terms and work with trustworthy, reputable companies to avoid losing money and time. Lastly, even if this strategy works short-term, its sustainability and ethics are questionable. Be cautious.

T

PekzScript said:

Hi, first off, the risks here should not be underestimated. Blackhat methods always carry high risk; affiliate programs may withhold payments or ban your account if they suspect you violated their terms. The “lay” or “Dutch” betting strategy to offset losses sounds logical in theory, but in practice, there’s a high chance of getting caught and flagged. Many betting companies are very strict and monitor such behaviors closely. So, it’s crucial to thoroughly read the affiliate program terms and work with trustworthy, reputable companies to avoid losing money and time. Lastly, even if this strategy works short-term, its sustainability and ethics are questionable. Be cautio

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Thank you very much for your detailed response. Yes I have gone through various affiliate programs terms, and they are all against such practice. Honestly it sounded so good and profitable on paper but, I'm breaking their T& C. Although them detecting me will be quite difficult I must say. Here is a breakdown of how I intend doing it.

I have about 7 android devices each with its own SIM and internet connection. I will create a telegram channel providing betting tips. Each device will join my telegram channel and signups using my referral link. Deposit money then place both accumulator and single stake bets, of course this will be done randomly on each device.

Then I lay the bets on a betting exchange, for a stake of $50 I'm guaranteed to loose $6 if the back bet on the bookmaker won and loose $0 if the lay bet won. Given the fact that I will be placing -ve bets on the bookmaker a good number of my bets will lose and the affiliate commissions will offset the losses and bring in some profit. But it will be against the affiliate T&C.