How long does it take a new site to dominate a keyword?

I have a new site 1month old. I am targetting a keyword which has 50k monthly searaches when in "" on google, and 4million without the "".

Assume i build links, and have good onsite seo, how long would it take to make the:

1st page?
1st listing?

32 hours...

No srsly this is impossible to predict especially with the details that you have provided.It really depends on the niche you are in and on the competition.If you are trying to rank for a word like "Credit Report" for example you can forget the 1st listing or probably even the 1st page.Just focus on your SEO efforts and content instead of constantly wondering how long it will take you to rank well.Considering that your word has 4 million searches a month even second or 3rd page is a good result and should bring you some $

bout 350


...but really its so much more than a "pick a keyword with XYZ in category ABC."

What does the first page look like? Is it all amazon, wiki, etc? You might NEVER get to page 1. Is page 1 a bunch of people who don't even know they are there? Ok, now you've got a good shot of getting there in a month. Without further analysis of the actual content and websites that are ranking you cant just use numbers and predict what will result.

Thanks for the replies.

I looked at the top 20 results. Obviously, most domains are pretty 2-11 years, and most have a pr of at least 2.

It looks tough admittedly.

It seems the payback for doing lots of seo will take a long time to bear fruit.

That's the way it is for most things if you want to make it sustainable. Consider looking at keyword modifiers to bolster yourself.