statsers
Banned - Inappropriate behavior
- Dec 12, 2015
- 356
- 824
nice one mate
Daily Bitcoin Technical Analysis Thread
- Thread starter Nash Commerce
- Start date
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
I swing trade, so I'm entering and closing positions 3-10 times a month.
Yes, this is my 2nd largest income stream.
what's your first?
statsers
Banned - Inappropriate behavior
- Dec 12, 2015
- 356
- 824
Ayabood
Newbie
- Oct 29, 2020
- 1
- 1
Look to thisHey everyone, there's a lot of talk about bitcoin and crypto these days.
BHW has helped me, so this is me giving back.
Here I will post daily / semi-daily charts & technical analysis on the market in real-time.
This is the current BTC/USD market right now, at roughly 2 PM EST.
Green means go, red means stop, yellow means slow. Simple right?
Not really, when prices are flying people are buying. When prices are dipping people are shitting.
The culprit? Human psychology, the graphic below is worth a hundred million dollars...
“If I only had an hour to chop down a tree, I would spend the first 45 minutes sharpening my axe.” – Abraham Lincoln.
This market is unforgiving, especially to new traders and investors. It is very important that you study the information above and understand the correlation between them before you even think about investing or trading.
Your mind will play tricks on you. Your heart will lie to you. Numbers don't lie.
Make sure to watch the thread, as I will be updating this regularly with new analysis as the market changes daily.
I'll also be getting more in-depth with advanced indicators such as Fibonacci, rsi, macd, Heiken-Ashi, moving averages, divergence, etc.
Attachments
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
Quick update: We have formed a triangle pattern on the 4hr chart. This happens when the asset continues to make higher lows (bullish signal) at the same time it is making lower highs (bearish signal).
This will continue until the price gets squeezed out either to the upside or to the downside, and whichever way it breaks there will be a ton of volume and a lot of traders looking to trade the breakout of the pattern.
The green line represents potential high probability longing opportunities, the red shows the opposite. However as the trend progresses the risk gets higher and the reward gets lower. That's why many people look to trade the momentum break of this structure whether it is to the downside or the upside.
That being said the macro trend is obviously bullish right now, the trend is your friend. Don't bet against it.
Shorting in this market is a much higher risk than longing. Patience is key in this market.
Don't get antsy and try to make trades just because you want to make money, that's what we call overtrading and it's the main reason why traders don't make money. They get this itch to make money and then make half-ass decisions when they could have waited for a higher risk to reward ratio situation to show itself.
Thanks, everyone.
bestspinner
Power Member
- Apr 23, 2019
- 522
- 310
Its breakout, could go new > ath
Quick update: We have formed a triangle pattern on the 4hr chart. This happens when the asset continues to make higher lows (bullish signal) at the same time it is making lower highs (bearish signal).
This will continue until the price gets squeezed out either to the upside or to the downside, and whichever way it breaks there will be a ton of volume and a lot of traders looking to trade the breakout of the pattern.
The green line represents potential high probability longing opportunities, the red shows the opposite. However as the trend progresses the risk gets higher and the reward gets lower. That's why many people look to trade the momentum break of this structure whether it is to the downside or the upside.
That being said the macro trend is obviously bullish right now, the trend is your friend. Don't bet against it.
Shorting in this market is a much higher risk than longing. Patience is key in this market.
Don't get antsy and try to make trades just because you want to make money, that's what we call overtrading and it's the main reason why traders don't make money. They get this itch to make money and then make half-ass decisions when they could have waited for a higher risk to reward ratio situation to show itself.
Thanks, everyone.
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
The yellow highlight represents a new inverse head and shoulders pattern we have formed on the hourly chart.
At the same time, we're making more and more higher lows, all bullish indicators.
We have also formed a small channel inside of the triangle pattern we've been in for the past few days (see the last post). The risk to reward here still isn't good and I won't be placing any long positions until we break that red line of resistance, which I believe will happen in the next few days. This should result in another move up to the 40k resistance level we established a week or two ago.
Expect massive volume when we break this triangle structure. It will be an explosive move.
Not financial advice, I'm not telling you to do anything, do your own research.
Thanks for following the thread.
Elvlin
Elite Member
- Nov 4, 2018
- 5,068
- 2,550
Hi, if you don't mind to answer. How much your target profit for every transaction? 5%? And you play margin trading?
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
Technically yes but that's such a small time frame that I don't consider the signal strong enough to take into account.
I was hesitant to give weight to the head and shoulders pattern for the same reason, but it's about 2-3 times of a longer period of time (more data) than the double top.
I also give weight to the inverse head and shoulders because we formed a new small upward trading channel after it and are continuing to make higher lows.
A double top there is actually a good sign because with this macro triangle we are in we are supposed to continue making lower highs, but the fact that the distance between those lower highs is shrinking is a sign that bullish momentum is picking up. So now instead of it being a huge lower high, it now looks like a double top.
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
I don't go based on what I want to make, that's how you get rekt, you get greedy.
I go based on the risk to reward ratio, I want at least 3:1.
When we break this triangle I stand to have 5:1 odds roughly from the red resistance breaking point to the resistance at 40k from 2 weeks ago which is about where my take profit would be.
Then after I understand the risk to reward I look at how much of my portfolio I'm willing to risk.
A lot of the time I am just buying the actual asset instead of margin trading because it's a 1-3 week play.
Although I do both.
Dark Sky
Banned - leaving fake reviews.
- Apr 3, 2019
- 1,610
- 2,729
Interesting, I like your analysis, do you daily trade on alt coins? I've recently got into technical analysis, I enjoy it quite a lot trying to spot logical patterns, I've practically become obsessed with it. Permanently watching technical analysis courses and practicing...
P.S, any good resources you learned from?
provocative
Supreme Member
- Jan 24, 2020
- 1,283
- 654
Hi, i know it's bitcoin thread but is it possible for you to share ETH graphics as well? or maybe opening another thread if you have time.
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
Yeah I can post an analysis for Ethereum. I have a lot of business to handle at the moment so I'll post once we break out of this triangle pattern we are currently in.
Nash Commerce
Regular Member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 539
- 861
Quick update: stopped the thread because I got wrecked, now I have to sell bathwater on the internet... just kidding
I ended up selling all of my positions at around $40,700, the very top was $42,000.
Right now the chart is looking pretty bearish in the short term, a retest of the bottom of the orange triangle is almost certain as we are making lower highs AND lower lows, bitcoin is trying to use 31k level for support but I feel like there may still be some sellers on the table although a lot of weak hands were flushed out.
So what am I doing? NOTHING. For me to enter another trade I personally want more data, if the right circumstances present themselves I would consider a short at 34k, or a long at around 28k.
But in my opinion, there are a lot of mixed signals on the chart. We are still in a bull run but the 4h chart is showing a fairly defined bearish trend. But the 1 week is so much different.
Be very careful trading in this environment, all of my previous calls have been correct, that's why I'm not making a call this time. I'm gonna tell you how it is, and the way it is is that we have very mixed signals, and making a bold prediction right now would be arrogant.
I would really like to see a break of the orange triangle's top resistance where a push back up to retest 42k would be probable. just because we are currently in a bull market still, and the media hype surrounding bitcoin right now is growing not that election news is beginning to pull back a tad. We also have big companies spending lots of ad dollars to get the everyday person to begin investing in crypto on their platform. All time high of wallets, all time high volume, all time high google trends data.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice. this is only entertainment. I'll never tell you what to do with your trades or investments.