itsjinx
Power Member
- Apr 10, 2008
- 716
- 212
Perhaps reading this article will enlighten some people to the woes of imaginary currencies:
http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/
It may also be worth looking at this chart with Bollinger Band overlays:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSzbgBza1gSMAzm1g20za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gVolzi2gBBWzv
A Bollinger Band in a traded item shows the volatility of it. When a stable security nears the top band, it corrects itself towards the bottom band, and vice versa.
As seen in the chart, the price of BTC has been riding the top band for months now. You can see that while the price increase exponentially, so does the volatility. While the top band curves to accommodate the price, the bottom band has stayed relatively stable. The wider the bands, the more volatile and susceptible to correction.
Naturally, expansion and growth in any traded item causes the bands to fluctuate with the pricing and the bands themselves are corrected. However, the kind of growth BTC has seen in a period of 1-2 months is something a stable security would experience in 1-2 years.
Continuously breaking the top band or riding it for months with only minuscule corrections is not mathematically sound or sustainable.
Given the aforementioned article as well, you'd be a fool to think the BTC won't eventually start heading toward that bottom band at $35.
You cant compare it to securities because the majority driver of corrections in securities is traders shorting it. Bitcoin cant be shorted as such so the typical downward pressure isnt there. (For anyone claiming the 2 known sites for bitcoin shorting - they are completely different than real shorting and not the same thing. You cant short bitcoins)