Bitcoin Downtrend.

Dark Sky

Dark Sky

Banned - leaving fake reviews.
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This now has 3 lower highs, which signals that this is not a retracement, a downtrend is confirmed. Can it break out of this downtrend through consolidation? Who knows, personally I think this is the end for this year, and traders are about to get robbed by manipulators if they stay in.

I see so many positive TA's for bitcoin at the moment, it doesn't add up. This is a confirmed downtrend.

Edit: It's also moved below the moving average. Signalling a reversal.

bitcoin downtrend.JPG
 
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there’s a 65% - 70% chance of a breakout to the upside I would say.

if you look at that chart you’ll see we are making higher lows and lower highs forming a triangle. Your red circles are highlighting the lower highs.

it’s technically still an uptrend because we haven’t broken the upward sloping support level that’s giving us those higher lows.
 
TA is not one of my areas of competence, but honestly do you think this conclusion can be derived from looking at the 1D charts?
 
Nash Commerce said:
there’s a 65% - 70% chance of a breakout to the upside I would say.

if you look at that chart you’ll see we are making higher lows and lower highs forming a triangle. Your red circles are highlighting the lower highs.

it’s technically still an uptrend because we haven’t broken the upward sloping support level that’s giving us those higher lows.
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I will disagree with this, not saying your wrong at all, but I personally disagree.

I've been learning from investor trading academy, and they did a whole video on retracements/reversals and identifying them, a retracal is when the market eases after a push, and pushes to a new higher high.

A downtrend is when it stops making higher high, and makes lower highs, which means this is now in a downtrend.

However this could be a short downtrend before the new uptrend starts.

They've also said that it can either break up or down in a triangle, as in a triangle there is no way to predict which way it will go. And that's why you never trade inside them. You always wait for the breakout before entering.

Based on the signals, I think it's entering a reversal. I could be wrong as I'm new, but this is my prediction based on the signals.
 
slimjimmy said:
TA is not one of my areas of competence, but honestly do you think this conclusion can be derived from looking at the 1D charts?
Click to expand...

Yes, TA is based on the market being run by humans, and therefor patterns emerge, and you can predict which way the market will go based on patterns. The charts are there to visualise it better, the conclusion is actually from the price movements.
 
Dark Sky said:
I will disagree with this, not saying your wrong at all, but I personally disagree.

I've been learning from investor trading academy, and they did a whole video on retracements/reversals and identifying them, a retracal is when the market eases after a push, and pushes to a new higher high.

A downtrend is when it stops making higher high, and makes lower highs, which means this is now in a downtrend.

However this could be a short downtrend before the new uptrend starts.

They've also said that it can either break up or down in a triangle, as in a triangle there is no way to predict which way it will go. And that's why you never trade inside them. You always wait for the breakout before entering.

Based on the signals, I think it's entering a reversal. I could be wrong as I'm new, but this is my prediction based on the signals.
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For sure bro I like your analysis, not knocking it at all. Yeah I definitely don’t trade inside triangles which is why I gave it 65%.

We should have a break of the triangle within 48 hours or so. I think Bitcoin is overvalued personally, I just don’t see buyer exhaustion yet that would warrant a bearish call.
 
A bull triangle has been formed. In order to create a symmetrical triangle there has to have been lower highs, yet that's a component of a bullish continuation based on bull triangle.

I personally think that there's a higher chance of it getting to the lower bollinger at around $32,000 though. First serious consolidation of the big push since $20K, the opportunity to shake out a lot more people by the time it gets to $32K is a strong incentive to do so.

Hard to know at this point though, but it's already broken the bottom trend of the bull triangle (during this 4hr), so could be a good indicator it's at least going to attempt to break downwards.
 
let me feed on some review copies and boom it’ll shoot upwadds.

on a serious note theres lot of instructional money involved so I expect it to dip and then shoot upwards
 
Nobody knows what's going on and it's silly to think that this kind of thing can be predicted.

I like the idea of crypto, but it's essentially gambling at this point, and I think it will never be "real currency" until it's somewhat stable.
 
IGKing said:
Nobody knows what's going on and it's silly to think that this kind of thing can be predicted.

I like the idea of crypto, but it's essentially gambling at this point, and I think it will never be "real currency" until it's somewhat stable.
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I think these guys would beg to differ.
 
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IGKing said:
Nobody knows what's going on and it's silly to think that this kind of thing can be predicted.

I like the idea of crypto, but it's essentially gambling at this point, and I think it will never be "real currency" until it's somewhat stable.
Click to expand...

Theres no way to predict it.
But you can use mass psychological patterns that heavily influence price action to make an educated guess and get 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 odds for a trade.
 
VSYNC said:
A https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/triangle-patterns/#:~:text=Ascending%20triangle%20patterns%20are%20bullish,is%20created%20with%20two%20trendlines. has been formed. In order to create a symmetrical triangle there has to have been lower highs, yet that's a component of a bullish continuation based on bull triangle.

I personally think that there's a higher chance of it getting to the lower bollinger at around $32,000 though. First serious consolidation of the big push since $20K, the opportunity to shake out a lot more people by the time it gets to $32K is a strong incentive to do so.

Hard to know at this point though, but it's already broken the bottom trend of the bull triangle (during this 4hr), so could be a good indicator it's at least going to attempt to break downwards.
Click to expand...

I don't believe in bull triangles, I understand ascending triangles have a bullish implication given to them, but I don't agree. I've not seen anything to suggest ascending triangles break up more then descending triangles, same with symmetrical.

If this was incorrect, then you would just trade ascending triangles only and be profitable. The only thing a triangle tells you, is it's more likely to break up or down than keep sideways.

I think this is going to flatline around 10k USD from here onwards, and then make it's next run up in a year or two.



themoon9286 said:
How much will the bottom be?
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No one knows, my educated guess would be around 10k USD.


Nash Commerce said:
Theres no way to predict it.
But you can use mass psychological patterns that heavily influence price action to make an educated guess and get 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 odds for a trade.
Click to expand...

Agreed. It's like poker, there is no way to win 100%, but using logic you can profit long term.
 
if we use logic to predict longterm, bitcoin will continuously go up because the trend is already coming and limited supply. Not only bitcoin, the world is going into crypto tech now.
 
Dark Sky said:
I don't believe in bull triangles, I understand ascending triangles have a bullish implication given to them, but I don't agree. I've not seen anything to suggest ascending triangles break up more then descending triangles, same with symmetrical.
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You're welcome to your opinion, but if you're midway through an online TA course and I'm assuming haven't been trading using TA in any kind of significant way for very long, it's maybe the time for absorbing information more than discounting well known and agreed upon standards (no offence, just saying).

How many historic charts from the crypto market have you studied to come to your conclusion that you haven't seen anything to suggest ascending and symmetrical triangles don't break up more often than breaking down?

Also, the symmetrical triangle isn't a bullish indicator, it's a continuation indicator.

LrOY8ui


(Look familiar? ^^)​

If you're seeing that a lot of the time the trend breaks down then check how frequently it entered from a down trend as well.

Dark Sky said:
If this was incorrect, then you would just trade ascending triangles only and be profitable.
Click to expand...
Sure, of course. You've just said in the last post that it's not about having 100% certainty, but the strongest indication that you can have, which it is.

Dark Sky said:
The only thing a triangle tells you, is it's more likely to break up or down than keep sideways.
Click to expand...
Yes, like for example ascending triangles tell you that it is more likely that a trend will move upwards. I agree. Often but not always.

Dark Sky said:
I think this is going to flatline around 10k USD from here onwards, and then make it's next run up in a year or two.
Click to expand...
Just to double check.. you think that in 2013 (4 yrs after launch of BTC) there was a bull run where BTC increased by x,xxx%, then in 2017 (4 years later) there was another bull run where BTC increased by ~27X..

..then now only 3 years later, with the huge increase in adoption and institutional money coming into the market, BTC will only double its last ATH and then stop for a year or two?

With all the hype surrounding BTC, crypto and DeFi, with Greyscale investing billions upon billions, with Paypal adopting BTC, with the highest trade volumes ever seen by a long way, with ETH reaching its previous ATH.. and 100 other positive metrics.. you think that enough people will sell BTC now for it to get it 30% of its current value and sit there for a year?
 
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VSYNC said:
You're welcome to your opinion, but if you're midway through an online TA course and I'm assuming haven't been trading using TA in any kind of significant way for very long, it's maybe the time for absorbing information more than discounting well known and agreed upon standards (no offence, just saying).

How many historic charts from the crypto market have you studied to come to your conclusion that you haven't seen anything to suggest ascending and symmetrical triangles don't break up more often than breaking down?

Also, the symmetrical triangle isn't a bullish indicator, it's a continuation indicator.

LrOY8ui


(Look familiar? ^^)​

If you're seeing that a lot of the time the trend breaks down then check how frequently it entered from a down trend as well.


Sure, of course. You've just said in the last post that it's not about having 100% certainty, but the strongest indication that you can have, which it is.


Yes, like for example ascending triangles tell you that it is more likely that a trend will move upwards. I agree. Often but not always.


Just to double check.. you think that in 2013 (4 yrs after launch of BTC) there was a bull run where BTC increased by x,xxx%, then in 2017 (4 years later) there was another bull run where BTC increased by ~27X..

..then now only 3 years later, with the huge increase in adoption and institutional money coming into the market, BTC will only double its last ATH and then stop for a year or two?

With all the hype surrounding BTC, crypto and DeFi, with Greyscale investing billions upon billions, with Paypal adopting BTC, with the highest trade volumes ever seen by a long way, with ETH reaching its previous ATH.. and 100 other positive metrics.. you think that enough people will sell BTC now for it to get it 30% of its current value and sit there for a year?
Click to expand...

I understand, and I'm still absorbing others views, like I said it's my personal opinion so I'm not saying I'm right in anyway, but from the courses I've watched from big trading organisations (not youtubers) They've all said the same thing, the direction of the triangle does not matter and does not give a signal, nor does it's placement, what it does tell you is there is pressure on the market to make a decision on whether they are going to sell or buy, which causes a higher probability of a breakout at the end of that pattern.

The direction of breakouts are based on fundamental analysis, and that's why you should never trade in the pattern, only once the pattern is finished. Because unless you understand fundamental analysis, you have no idea which side the money is going.

From my time trading, I have actually not seen any correlation between triangles and which way it will breakout. Patterns like triple bottoms suggest that there is not enough power to move the market down, and thus it's likely to reverse. With a triangle, there's no solid decision being made whether to break the resistance of the support until it reaches the end of the triangle when it typically needs to happen.

I have been off and on for a few years, so I have seen a lot of charts, and I typically spend 12 hours a day on charts when I do, so I've seen a lot, just not learnt from traders in the past, I guess I was making my own correlations.

I do disagree with using multipliers in the past, as market cap really does change the multiplier. That's why alt coins have much more potential to go 20x than bitcoin, I've been watching a few institutions, and they been increasing their investments, one doubled theirs from 1 billion to 2 billion.

However I just don't think they are going to keep shoving when a drop in price gives them much better returns.

Again, I could be wrong on everything, but up until now, this is my understanding and I'm not doing too shabby with my trading, so I have to close my mind on some knowledge if I'm profiting :) The triangles, I have definitely formed my opinion on until I see a correlation long term showing the opposite,

The BTC price at 10k? Not so much, I just think it's going to go down to the bottom support but I don't hold a firm belief on this, I still believe BTC is being wildly manipulated by billionaires to squeeze profits while it lasts. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to make massive gains trading. The market at the moment is incredibly irrational.
 
Dark Sky said:
I understand, and I'm still absorbing others views, like I said it's my personal opinion so I'm not saying I'm right in anyway, but from the courses I've watched from big trading organisations (not youtubers) They've all said the same thing, the direction of the triangle does not matter and does not give a signal, nor does it's placement, what it does tell you is there is pressure on the market to make a decision on whether they are going to sell or buy, which causes a higher probability of a breakout at the end of that pattern.

The direction of breakouts are based on fundamental analysis, and that's why you should never trade in the pattern, only once the pattern is finished. Because unless you understand fundamental analysis, you have no idea which side the money is going.

From my time trading, I have actually not seen any correlation between triangles and which way it will breakout. Patterns like triple bottoms suggest that there is not enough power to move the market down, and thus it's likely to reverse. With a triangle, there's no solid decision being made whether to break the resistance of the support until it reaches the end of the triangle when it typically needs to happen.

I have been off and on for a few years, so I have seen a lot of charts, and I typically spend 12 hours a day on charts when I do, so I've seen a lot, just not learnt from traders in the past, I guess I was making my own correlations.

I do disagree with using multipliers in the past, as market cap really does change the multiplier. That's why alt coins have much more potential to go 20x than bitcoin, I've been watching a few institutions, and they been increasing their investments, one doubled theirs from 1 billion to 2 billion.

However I just don't think they are going to keep shoving when a drop in price gives them much better returns.

Again, I could be wrong on everything, but up until now, this is my understanding and I'm not doing too shabby with my trading, so I have to close my mind on some knowledge if I'm profiting :) The triangles, I have definitely formed my opinion on until I see a correlation long term showing the opposite,

The BTC price at 10k? Not so much, I just think it's going to go down to the bottom support but I don't hold a firm belief on this, I still believe BTC is being wildly manipulated by billionaires to squeeze profits while it lasts. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to make massive gains trading. The market at the moment is incredibly irrational.
Click to expand...
Yeah you sound like you've got a lot of knowledge about it all man.

For the record I hope it gets to $10K, and at the same time wouldn't want to invest there if it did because it would be a strong sign of a problem in the market and most likely would continue lower. There would have to be a serious issue for it to get to 10K now is what I mean, it wouldn't be normal and would require mass abandonment by institutionals.
 
VSYNC said:
Yeah you sound like you've got a lot of knowledge about it all man.

For the record I hope it gets to $10K, and at the same time wouldn't want to invest there if it did because it would be a strong sign of a problem in the market and most likely would continue lower. There would have to be a serious issue for it to get to 10K now is what I mean, it wouldn't be normal and would require mass abandonment by institutionals.
Click to expand...

Yah I hope it goes there too, personally if it hits the support line at the bottom, and then all my signals suggest a reversal, I'm buying back in wildly, I probably would go all in, simply due to the reward if I'm right. 2 years worth of earnings for potentially 20 years of earnings is too tempting not to risk.

I don't think institutions would abandon, the amount of people searching bitcoin and bitcoin price in google has gone up massively every time the price starts rising massively, which leads me to believe that a lot of the money is your regular person investing. And after 2017, I can see mass panic selling forcing it down to 10k before the big guys start buying it all out again, panic selling is a real possibility this time, majority of people in bitcoin have seen panic selling once, they know it can happen again, and they don't want to end up at the bottom. The FEAR this time will be real. And I know the big guys will abuse this and let it happen, and buy back right at the bottom. I don't think the institutional money at this stage can override the fear if it happens, I'll personally give it a few more years before there is too much money to allow this kind of volatility.

Nice talking to you though, It's nice to hear opposite opinions, it allows me to see both perspectives :)
 
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