BitCoin and Cryptocurrencies - Will they fail? My 3 Predictions!

The Mentalist said:

Bitcoin relies heavily on exchange hubs, like Mt Gox and friends. You don't think these could be easily monitored? The dollar is depreciating in value, which is even a stronger case against Bitcoin, why should the US allow it to continue? The US can restrict any legal business from accepting or issuing bitcoins, and that's a huge blow.

Click to expand...

How many exchanges are within US jurisdiction? Really, only 1, CampBX, and it has extremely low volume. If it shut down tomorrow, no one would notice.

60% of bitcoin trades occur on Chinese exchanges, anyway. Most exchanges take forever to exchange USD already, so not many people do it like that. The vast majority of deposits in MtGox and the other main exchanges are in BTC, not USD.

The best they could do would be to prevent USD Bank wires from certain exchanges, and at most, would affect less than 10% of deposits. While it would be a blow to bitcoin, it certainly wouldn't shut it down, or have a long-term significant impact.

People learn to work around it, like drugs or piracy. But the US won't be banning Bitcoin, anyway.

ShadeDream said:

So lets say all goes well and Bitcoins take over general currency. What happens when the majority of Bitcoins is owned by big companies like Apple that will sit on the money? Inflation comes back no matter what.

Click to expand...

Inflation is the increase of the money supply, not the CPI index. As you probably know, BTCs are limited by design and you can 't print more at a whim. Which is one of the reasons it can't lose value due to central manipulation, like in the case of USD etc.

Expansion of the money supply is the common way used for more than 2000 years by governments to steal funds from everyone else. Any wonder why people want gold, silver and BTC as a value storage?

i made almost $50k with bitcoin this year waiting for further pricedrops so why would you say it failed? because you did not invest in it?

Daniel16 said:

How do you upload funds to it mate? Kindly advice

Thanks in advance

Click to expand...

Look here:

https://hdbtce.kayako.com/Knowledgebase/Article/View/30/3/deposit-methods-usd--eur--rur

bitcoin just change to mBTC

http://bitcoinity.org/markets

1BTC = 1,000mBTC
1mBTC = USD$1.00

Now, everyone can buy, and the price will increase sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[h=1]Bitcoin, Gold and Tulips[/h]

In January, bitcoin was trading around $13. By November, it was at $200, and it had soared past $1,200 by Thanksgiving before backing down. Is bitcoin the wave of the future, or nothing more than digital tulips? One look at the chart says the present is fraught with extreme risk that cuts both ways.

While we cannot know if the next stop for bitcoin is $2,000 or $200, one thing for sure is it is a chart that none of us have ever seen live and in person (see Chart 1).
[h=3]Chart 1[/h] Bitcoin





Without getting into the details, bitcoin is a new currency traded against the dollar, yen, euro and every other currency around the world. It is not minted by any government and by extension it cannot be diluted by central bank money printing or other government policies. Bitcoin fans say that (apparent) invulnerability could help it replace gold as a store of value.
If you recall the initial public offering of Netscape two decades ago, or even of Google (ticker: GOOG) one decade ago, early trading in a true innovation can be quite frenzied. Prices increase at geometric rates. In today's marketplace, bitcoin seems to have taken that dynamic to the limit with a near-vertical ascent and a host of analysts crying "bubble."
On the charts, we do see meteoric ascents from time to time, and usually they do not end well. A good example is Sodastream (SODA) in 2011. The young stock rallied from roughly 25 to 80 in just a few months' time and just as quickly was trading back down near 30. I call it "parabolic up, parabolic down," others call it an "Eiffel Tower" pattern.
Briefly last week, the price of bitcoin exceeded the price of an ounce of gold. While it makes for great headlines, the comparison is not any more valid than comparing gold to the level of the Standard & Poor's 500, or apples to wildebeest. None of it makes sense. You cannot hold an ounce of bitcoin on your hand.
But the hoopla over the event did underscore the sentiment now surrounding this market. I am not commenting on the viability, liability, or buyability of a new system of money, but only the technicals surrounding it. Even though the public is largely unaware of this market, those investors involved with it show an extreme level of bullishness. Extreme bullishness creates an environment where any bad news can be devastating to prices.
Gold, as mentioned, has been suffering, and whether bitcoin has played a role is up for debate. The trend has been down for nearly two years and it is hard to make a case from a simple price action perspective that this market is close to turning around for the better (see Chart 2). But in a strange twist, the new love for bitcoin and its spawned additional dislike for gold may be just what will change the metal's fortunes for the better.
[h=3]Chart 2[/h] Gold





Without inflation, war, a sinking dollar, or intense demand for the commodity - traditional conditions under which precious metals flourish - gold has shed all but its most devoted fans. Sentiment is as dour as ever, so the idea that bitcoin is putting in the final nail in the coffin could create a contrarian's dream setup in the near future.
But sentiment is merely an environment. Only price action can set a buy trigger, and for now, the few remaining gold bugs will have to wait.
[h=3]Chart 3[/h] Gouda Tulip Bulbs





Perhaps bitcoin, not gold, is indeed the future of money. But given that the bitcoin parabola is similar to that of the Dutch tulip bulb mania in 1637, (See Chart 3) the dangers of buying into a bubble are the same as attempting to sell it short. It could double from here just as easily as it could fall by half. Timing must be perfect with these levels of volatility and risk.
Investors might consider waiting for a significant shakeout in bitcoin before taking the plunge. Or they can follow gold lower as they wait for a spark that triggers a massive short squeeze as bears rush to cover their bets.
On the charts, both markets seem to be at critical levels, where major reversals or major accelerations - up for bitcoin and down for gold - may be in the offing.

Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903302604579233990748865878.html

jazzc said:

Expansion of the money supply is the common way used for more than 2000 years by governments to steal funds from everyone else. Any wonder why people want gold, silver and BTC as a value storage?

Click to expand...

But then, doesn't this mean that you won't really be able to trade BTC like general currency?

Tulips can be grown, bitcoins can't.

W130SN said:

Bitcoin, Gold and Tulips



In January, bitcoin was trading around $13. By November, it was at $200, and it had soared past $1,200 by Thanksgiving before backing down. Is bitcoin the wave of the future, or nothing more than digital tulips? One look at the chart says the present is fraught with extreme risk that cuts both ways.

While we cannot know if the next stop for bitcoin is $2,000 or $200, one thing for sure is it is a chart that none of us have ever seen live and in person (see Chart 1).
Chart 1

Bitcoin

Without getting into the details, bitcoin is a new currency traded against the dollar, yen, euro and every other currency around the world. It is not minted by any government and by extension it cannot be diluted by central bank money printing or other government policies. Bitcoin fans say that (apparent) invulnerability could help it replace gold as a store of value.
If you recall the initial public offering of Netscape two decades ago, or even of Google (ticker: GOOG) one decade ago, early trading in a true innovation can be quite frenzied. Prices increase at geometric rates. In today's marketplace, bitcoin seems to have taken that dynamic to the limit with a near-vertical ascent and a host of analysts crying "bubble."
On the charts, we do see meteoric ascents from time to time, and usually they do not end well. A good example is Sodastream (SODA) in 2011. The young stock rallied from roughly 25 to 80 in just a few months' time and just as quickly was trading back down near 30. I call it "parabolic up, parabolic down," others call it an "Eiffel Tower" pattern.
Briefly last week, the price of bitcoin exceeded the price of an ounce of gold. While it makes for great headlines, the comparison is not any more valid than comparing gold to the level of the Standard & Poor's 500, or apples to wildebeest. None of it makes sense. You cannot hold an ounce of bitcoin on your hand.
But the hoopla over the event did underscore the sentiment now surrounding this market. I am not commenting on the viability, liability, or buyability of a new system of money, but only the technicals surrounding it. Even though the public is largely unaware of this market, those investors involved with it show an extreme level of bullishness. Extreme bullishness creates an environment where any bad news can be devastating to prices.
Gold, as mentioned, has been suffering, and whether bitcoin has played a role is up for debate. The trend has been down for nearly two years and it is hard to make a case from a simple price action perspective that this market is close to turning around for the better (see Chart 2). But in a strange twist, the new love for bitcoin and its spawned additional dislike for gold may be just what will change the metal's fortunes for the better.
Chart 2

Gold

Without inflation, war, a sinking dollar, or intense demand for the commodity - traditional conditions under which precious metals flourish - gold has shed all but its most devoted fans. Sentiment is as dour as ever, so the idea that bitcoin is putting in the final nail in the coffin could create a contrarian's dream setup in the near future.
But sentiment is merely an environment. Only price action can set a buy trigger, and for now, the few remaining gold bugs will have to wait.
Chart 3

Gouda Tulip Bulbs

Perhaps bitcoin, not gold, is indeed the future of money. But given that the bitcoin parabola is similar to that of the Dutch tulip bulb mania in 1637, (See Chart 3) the dangers of buying into a bubble are the same as attempting to sell it short. It could double from here just as easily as it could fall by half. Timing must be perfect with these levels of volatility and risk.
Investors might consider waiting for a significant shakeout in bitcoin before taking the plunge. Or they can follow gold lower as they wait for a spark that triggers a massive short squeeze as bears rush to cover their bets.
On the charts, both markets seem to be at critical levels, where major reversals or major accelerations - up for bitcoin and down for gold - may be in the offing.

Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903302604579233990748865878.html

Click to expand...

ShadeDream said:

But then, doesn't this mean that you won't really be able to trade BTC like general currency?

Click to expand...

Why not? Suppose 1 BTC has a value of $100k. BTC supports 8 decimal points. So, you could buy your $1 newspaper with 0.00001 BTC and there 's still 3 more decimal points left

http://www.blackhatworld.com/blackhat-seo/members/510807-w130sn.html can you recommend the company for buying Litecoins.

I checked btc-e.com but a friend made me some doubt about that website.

Click to expand...

Here is a step by step guide for small investors, if you http://askkarine.com/2013/12/04/how-to-buy-bitcoins-with-paypal/

Fucking hell. Some dude has robbed $100m worth of BTC from Sheep Market Place!

$100m bitcoin theft - December 2013

Apologies if this was posted already but someone just tweeted me it. WTF? $100m ?!

jazzc said:

Why not? Suppose 1 BTC has a value of $100k. BTC supports 8 decimal points. So, you could buy your $1 newspaper with 0.00001 BTC and there 's still 3 more decimal points left

Click to expand...

I understand this but what happens when companies such as Apple end up sitting on huge amounts of Bitcoins?

The Mentalist said:

Bitcoin relies heavily on exchange hubs, like Mt Gox and friends. You don't think these could be easily monitored? The dollar is depreciating in value, which is even a stronger case against Bitcoin, why should the US allow it to continue? The US can restrict any legal business from accepting or issuing bitcoins, and that's a huge blow. Basically that ruins the hype bubble bitcoin has been building on, and preserves use of the US dollar.

Click to expand...

You don't have to operate a business in order to exchange BTC, transfers can be done between direct parties. The US cannot shut it down because it lacks jurisdiction over most exchangers operating worldwide, and because a peer network open source software platform is not a third party "money service business" that is subject to regulation. The jackboots can only attack domestic professional exchangers, their websites, and other centralized attack points, not the decentralized network. That's one reason why the currency bounces back from every supposed attempt to crush or restrict it.

ShadeDream said:

I understand this but what happens when companies such as Apple end up sitting on huge amounts of Bitcoins?

Click to expand...

But how would they accumulate that much? If they went on a huge buying spree, everyone who already owns would instantly be rich. There is already people sitting on loads of Bitcoins but as institutions get into it, coins will become more scarce and more valued.

ShadeDream said:

I understand this but what happens when companies such as Apple end up sitting on huge amounts of Bitcoins?

Click to expand...

There 's no problem, the BTC price will simply go up for the period those big amounts of money are not available for trade.

Patel said:

But how would they accumulate that much? If they went on a huge buying spree, everyone who already owns would instantly be rich. There is already people sitting on loads of Bitcoins but as institutions get into it, coins will become more scarce and more valued.

Click to expand...

If Bitcoin became a major currency and people would start using it, you'd get people paying in Bitcoins for Apple products. That's how they would keep accumulating the currency just like any other company would. With time the majority of the currency would be in the hands of big corporations where most of it would not go back into the general public. What happens then? Does the currency lose value? Does it become obsolete? Or does it gain in value in order to continue being a viable currency where you continue to increase the value of each decimal place?

ShadeDream said:

If Bitcoin became a major currency and people would start using it, you'd get people paying in Bitcoins for Apple products. That's how they would keep accumulating the currency just like any other company would. With time the majority of the currency would be in the hands of big corporations where most of it would not go back into the general public. What happens then? Does the currency lose value? Does it become obsolete? Or does it gain in value in order to continue being a viable currency where you continue to increase the value of each decimal place?

Click to expand...

Point taken, but that can be the case for any company who accepts Bitcoin. I think when that happens, it will just become more scarce and more valued. It won't become obsolete, but they will be taking smaller and smaller payments in BTC with more decimal places. Plus, if it becomes that big I would guess they would pay some of their expenses in Bitcoin too

Patel said:

I think when that happens, it will just become more scarce and more valued. It won't become obsolete, but they will be taking smaller and smaller payments in BTC with more decimal places.

Click to expand...

Exactly
.

jazzc said:

There 's no problem, the BTC price will simply go up for the period those big amounts of money are not available for trade.

Click to expand...

Isn't this still an issue though? If the BTC price goes up then those companies have less digits to spend on whatever it is that they make. They therefore can still hold onto the money and only use it as and when they need to. I don't think any currency will ever be foolproof.

ShadeDream said:

Isn't this still an issue though? If the BTC price goes up then those companies have less digits to spend on whatever it is that they make. They therefore can still hold onto the money and only use it as and when they need to.

Click to expand...

I don't understand what you are saying. Even if the money is hoarded on a box instead of a bank (which means they 're totally out of the economy), it does not matter at all. Prices will adjust to the new available volume. That 's what prices do - reflect the relation between supply and demand. In this case, it 's supply that changes. What 's the problem?