Betting Strategies - Strange

Hi all,

I was watching one of the euro 2008 game a few days ago and luckly I found out a gap to bet on the games without chance of losing. However, I am not sure if that works or not. That's why I ask your opinions.

When I was watching the game on ESPN(one of the sport channel in the US), the sopcast p2p online stream sharing software was turned on in my computer. I was connected to one of the chinese channel with that software to watch Netherlands-Russia game. The tv and the pc were turned on at the same time and they were showing the same game.

The weird thing is tv(ESPN) was showing the game 5 minutes before the chinese channel streaming. When the Russia scored and was shown on the tv, I watched the same goal after 5 minutes later on the pc. I think it is because time difference.

Now my point is that if we could find some websites in china to bet on the Euro 2008, we could place the live bet on the games and we would be aware of what is going to be 5 minutes later. Assuming you are watching the game from US.

Could it work?

First of all, China banned online gambling. 2nd, the problem of delay is with the one tv station that you found, not all. The bookmakers have better mechanism to protect and update themselves.

Yea it works, mostly on betting exchanges. It works EXTREMELY well on betting exchanges like betfair.

It also works on sportsbooks but you have to sign up to like 100 sportsbooks for it to work and you have to constantly checking odds.

It's called betting arbitrage.

Just go checkout betfair arbitrage, its awesome.

metalan1 said:

Yea it works, mostly on betting exchanges. It works EXTREMELY well on betting exchanges like betfair.

It also works on sportsbooks but you have to sign up to like 100 sportsbooks for it to work and you have to constantly checking odds.

It's called betting arbitrage.

Just go checkout betfair arbitrage, its awesome.

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uhh what that really works, i thought all betting was closed right when the game starts, not whenever it starts on tv in your country.....

hmm...this is interesting

Oscar,

Do you still find many worthwhile arbitrage opportunities? I looked into doing this before buy never found anything more than fractions of a percent difference, and even placing max bets would only net like $12.50-$35 BEFORE commissions.

maybe I will look at this game again. Any advice would be appreciated.

Xim

havokb8 said:

uhh what that really works, i thought all betting was closed right when the game starts, not whenever it starts on tv in your country.....

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Nope. You can bet whenever you want during the game if they offer live betting option. It means, you can bet on who is going to score next, which team will have the next corner kick, or even you can bet on the 85. minutes of the game for who is going to win the game.

Theorically, if we are aware of what is going to be in the next 5 minutes with that method, you can select live betting option and place your bid on whatever you want without chance of losing. I guess...

Many people take advantage on the delay of bookmakers.

There has been a controversy about people o take their pc to tennis courts with the intention of betting "in play" and taking advantage of the delay.

But you still have the possibility to take advantege of the delay by watching tv when you are sure that the bookmakers are watching the game by satelite tv and you are watching a local transmission.

(hope you understand what i'm saying - sorry for my bad english)

blabla said:

Many people take advantage on the delay of bookmakers.

There has been a controversy about people o take their pc to tennis courts with the intention of betting "in play" and taking advantage of the delay.

But you still have the possibility to take advantege of the delay by watching tv when you are sure that the bookmakers are watching the game by satelite tv and you are watching a local transmission.

(hope you understand what i'm saying - sorry for my bad english)

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Dream on.

I'm an ex-bookmaker in the UK. I spent over 25 years in that business. It works the other way round. In the UK bookmakers get their pictures before the public do - there's a transmission delay built in to the 'public' services but the bookmakers get an instant picture. Do you really think that we'd allow betting on any event where the public would get that kind of advantage? By the way - bookmakers pay extra for that service.

Other slight problems you might face:

UK bookmakers won't take online bets from the US. Not because we don't want to but your stupid government has laws in place that stop us getting paid. Your credit cards can't be used to pay us. Your banks won't transfer money to us. We don't trust 3rd party payment organisations like eGold.

Arbitrage opportunities are fairly rare. They depend on movements in the market. If you can predict the market movements you'll make a little money (as a percentage of the market it's seldom more than about 3-4%). If you think you can do so you'd make more money Spread Betting - but run a much bigger risk. But you are equally likely to get it totally wrong and lose money.

Also, you'll only be able to get arbitrage opportunities on a betting exchange like Betfair or Betdaq. Bookmakers will rarely 'lay off' a bet for you. We lay off our own liabilities - that's part of what being a bookmaker is all about.

Phil

Good post. I was also going to chime in here that where ever you place a bet is going to be based on their (the bookies) knowledge at the time and not on any other 'relayed' images anywhere else in the world.

Theres no way if I was a bookie I would be anything other than knowledgeable at the exact time the best are placed.

Arbitrage is the only way, in my opinion but you have to search far and wide to find real decent opportunities.

Now if someone could come up with those on a consistent basis............

os

I forgot - and here's a freebie to beat the bookie!

American Golf. It's very seldom 'live' in the early rounds of play. They delay shots a) so that they can show many different golfers at different places and b) for adverts. There can be 5 minutes between something happening on the course and getting on screen.

There are 2 opportunities. One is following a player round and being in touch with someone watching TV by mobile phone. The other (in the US only, I fear) is to watch 2 channels showing the same tournament. They may share a feed but they may change the order in which they show different segments.

Do with it what you will.....