I believe they'll pay more per impression of average clickers without paying directly per click. This is similar to Facebook when they say you'll pay per conversion but it's just paying per impression of likely converters. But I could be wrong.
I'm just thinking out loud here, it's only 2 months away now.
I think you're wrong because they would have to be tracking the visitors to know they are "likely clickers" and no longer tracking is the point. They turned personalized ads OFF with this, too. They are in court over privacy issues, and they don't want to be in court over and over for privacy.
Google will take a 15% flat cut from adwords buyers up front, and 15% from publishers showing those ads,
What the buyers WILL get is the ability to pay for "viewable" ad impressions. (50% of ad showing for 1 second or more).
- Auto-ads will only show 1 in-article ad per full screen scroll.
- It will be in the ToS, if it's not already, that you can only put 1 ad manually per full screen scroll.
So, You WANT your visitors scrolling around, and hanging around, and having a good UX, which means needing to test layouts for CPM, not CPC revenue. If they go to a second page that's a huge chance at showing more ads... so get your internal link game in order too.
In fact, where you used to want adsense units before, near the stuff people want to see, is where you will want internal links now.
I think that's going to require layout changes more than people realize, yet. We'll see.
Edit: REMEMBER: Google's entire auto-ads system is built around getting the ads shown where they are most likely to be clicked... but that's not what you will want anymore. You want the visitor seeing ads, lots of them, but not leaving on them quickly and especially not getting annoyed.
It's not going to be as simple are just being paid differently IMO, we'll see. Lots of good theorycrafting on this already, feel free to share more thoughts!